Bookmakers have the spread and total's Super Bowl odds down to an exact science less than 24 hours after the matchup is confirmed every year, but Super Bowl player props are where savvy bettors can make hay.
Topping my docket of Super Bowl picks will be a team prop focused on the Kansas City Chiefs running game. Without further ado, here is my top Super Bowl prediction.
Super Bowl 57 prop odds: Chiefs total rushing TDs
The odds below represent the best odds available for this Super Bowl props Chiefs Total Rushing Touchdowns from regulated sportsbooks in your region.
| Chiefs prop | Odds |
|---|---|
 Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns |
-125 |
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Super Bowl 57 Chiefs total rushing TDs pick
- Chiefs Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns (-125 at DraftKings)
Pick made on February 3, 2023.
The Kansas City Chiefs have found the end zone five times through two games this postseason, but all of those touchdowns have been via the arm of Patrick Mahomes. That’s bound to change in Super Bowl 57 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
While the Eagles scored rushing touchdowns at a historic rate in the regular season (32), the Chiefs weren’t shy about getting the ball across the goal line the old-fashioned way either. They ranked seventh in the NFL with 18 rushing scores.
The Eagles were far from the stingiest run-stoppers in the regular season, allowing 15 scores on the ground — 17th in the league. They were 19th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs in particular (12), and 24th in yards allowed per carry (4.6), so these weren’t fluky results.
The Chiefs boast an underrated tandem of Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon in the backfield. Pacheco has 121 rushing yards on 22 carries this postseason, while McKinnon has added 26 yards on 15 attempts. Pacheco had four rushing touchdowns in a seven-game span to close out the regular season, while McKinnon added one of his own in Week 15.
Another element that makes the Over a great bet here is the dynamic Mahomes. He may not have scrambled as much as he normally does in the AFC Championship Game against the Cincinnati Bengals due to an ankle injury, but he had the heart to take off and run, which drew a game-changing penalty on the tackle out of bounds.
Mahomes will have had another two weeks to rest that sore ankle, increasing the likelihood we see him call his own number near the goal line. The price on the Over is more than fair on this prop – I’d play it up to -140.
