Justin Watson Odds and Super Bowl Props: Circumstances Working Against Watson

Justin Watson racked up the third-most catches and yards on the Chiefs this year, but his receiving total for the Super Bowl is a relatively low one. However, our NFL betting picks believe there's good reason for that and will be wagering accordingly.

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at Covers.com
Shawn Wronka • Betting Analyst
Feb 11, 2024 • 12:59 ET • 4 min read
Kansas City Chiefs NFL Justin Watson
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The beauty of betting on football is that there is no difference between cashing a bet on a superstar or household name and cashing a bet on someone deeper down the depth chart. And with this being the Super Bowl odds, that is especially the case given that markets and offerings are infinitely wider and larger.

And while Justin Watson is no Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isaiah Pacheco, or even Rashee Rice, he still is someone worth talking about. After all, he finished third on the Chiefs in both targets and receiving yards.

So strap in and continue reading for free Super Bowl prop picks and predictions for the Justin Watson odds in the Super Bowl on Sunday, February 11. And don't forget to read our full 49ers vs. Chiefs picks preview for in-depth analysis and more NFL picks for the Big Game!

Justin Watson Super Bowl prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Justin Watson Super Bowl prop pick

Under 16.5 receiving yards (-110)

Given that he has had just 11 receptions in his last nine games and just three receptions in the playoffs, Justin Watson has not been turning any heads nor likely garnering much betting attention as of late. But with the Super Bowl just around the corner, there are still plenty of markets for the fifth-year wideout.

Again, Watson has not lit the world on fire as of late, but many bettors may look at his playoff game log and be tempted to back the receiver. He had one reception for 16 yards in the AFC conference championship game and had two receptions for 20 yards in the opening Wild Card round. With a receiving yardage prop of 15.5, he seems like someone to back.

But there is additional context surrounding the Kansas City Chiefs' receiving group that should actually have bettors looking the opposite direction. Kadarius Toney, who has had a painful season full of lowlights and who has been sidelined as of late, heads into the Super Bowl with a clean bill of health.

And on the topic of health, second-year wideout Skyy Moore was activated on Wednesday afternoon from the IR. The two wideouts combined for 48 targets across 27 games, which is by no means a staggering amount, but it is a threatening amount to Watson who has eclipsed a 50% snap share just once in his last five games. 

Watson may struggle to find targets coming his way let alone time on the field vs. the San Francisco 49ers, and FanDuel is hanging an extra yard on his receiving total compared to a lot of other shops.

Prop: Under 16.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)

Justin Watson Super Bowl same-game parlay

Justin Watson Under 16.5 receiving yards

Rashee Rice Over 66.5 receiving yards

Rashee Rice anytime TD

This isn't to dog on Watson as a player, as any fifth-round pick able to make it five years in the NFL is an anomaly. He clearly is a talented player to have the career he has had, and to contribute in meaningful ways to a Super Bowl-bound team.

But the fact of the matter is that there are more productive and talented players on his team. Take rookie Rashee Rice, the Chiefs' second-round pick this year. Rice has lit the world on fire as of late, posting 50+ yards in seven of his last nine games, including a 130-yard effort in his first career playoff game. 

Rice is also due for a trip to the end zone. After scoring six touchdowns in ten weeks from Week 5 through Week 15, Rice has managed to hit paydirt just once now in his last five games.

It's fun to root for and bet on the smaller name guys, but this is the game for Rice — the Chiefs' leading wide receiver on the season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Shawn Wronka - Covers
Betting Analyst

Shawn Wronka is an analytics-based sports bettor who was drawn to analytics at an early age via the stats on the back of sports cards. He began sports betting in 2016, and took an immediate interest in UFC before finding his way towards other major sports.

After years of casual betting, he took an interest in the numbers-based approach and specialized in learning and applying those techniques to niche markets such as player props, the NFL and NBA drafts, and F1. Shawn finds writing a good way to balance the time he spends on numbers, giving him an outlet to paint quantitative edges into qualitative narratives.

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his work has been seen in dozens of publications including the National Post, Financial Post, Calgary Herald, Vancouver Sun, and The Province.

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