Super Bowl Referee Analysis and Picks: Minimal Flags Make For a Great Game

Complaining about the officiating has become a pastime for many and even more so in the betting community. However, there isn't much smoke this year in the Super Bowl odds with the current officiating crew. Bill Vinovich was the referee when these two clubs met in Super Bowl LIV, but other than that, there aren't many conspiracies bettors should be looking for.

However, Vinovich's crew doesn't throw a ton of flags. So, the question is who would benefit the most, and how can my Super Bowl picks profit from it? Let's find out.

Here is my referee analysis for 49ers vs. Chiefs on Sunday, February 11. 

For more Super Bowl predictions be sure to check out our 49ers vs. Chiefs predictions and our Super Bowl props!

The Crew

Bill Vinovich will be the referee for Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. It will be his 19th postseason game and third Super Bowl as a referee. His last assignment was Super Bowl LIV which was coincidentally the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. This will be the first time a referee has officiated another Super Bowl between the same teams.

Terry Killens (umpire) and Patrick Holt (down judge) will be in their first Super Bowl while Mark Perlman (line judge) and Tom Hill (field judge) will also be assigned. Perlman and Hill are planning on retiring following this assignment.

Allen Baynes (side judge), and Brad Freeman (back judge) will round out the group. Only Perlman is from Vinovich’s crew from the regular season. 

Vinovich's tendencies

As the referee, Vinovich’s crew has let teams play. His crew has sat well below the league average in terms of total penalty yards for 12 straight seasons and this year was the first time his group threw more flags than the league average — at plus-0.25 flags per game. 

Looking at the averages of his last 12 years, his crew averages minus-1.65 flags for minus-16.57 yards vs. the league average. I’m not expecting this group to steal the spotlight on Sunday.  

It should be noted that Vinovich was the referee for possibly the worst no-call in NFL playoff history in the NFC Championship game in the 2018 season between the Saints and Rams. That lack of a call led the league to allow coaches to challenge pass interference the following season before scraping the idea one season later.

Super Bowl LIV

Looking back on Vinovich’s last Super Bowl game, it was not a penalty-heavy game. The 49ers had five penalties for 45 yards which were both under their season averages for the 2019 season while KC had four infractions for 24 yards which was lower than their average of 6.5 for 54.5 yards per game. 

The two biggest calls of that game came against the 49ers. The first was an offensive pass interference call vs. George Kittle in the dying seconds of the first half that took likely points off the board.

KITTLE OPI .... yeah it’s legit, but here’s my point .... when TEs extend their arm (usually on DBs especially) they ALWAYS get called. When WRs do the same they SOMETIMES get called. It’s not fair, nor admitted, but it’s very real. So, you need to coach with that in mind. pic.twitter.com/x1pnMCPbUi

— Paul Alexander (@CoachPaulAlex) February 3, 2020

The other was a DPI vs. San Francisco on Travis Kelce which was a pretty easy decision. 

There was also a missed OPI on Kelce here on the go-ahead TD for the Chiefs late in the fourth quarter. 

It was a pretty quiet game in terms of penalty volume with just the Kittle OPI standing out but there certainly was a pushoff. 

Team tendencies

The Niners took 5.8 penalties per game which ranked 17th in terms of lowest to highest. Those flags added up to 54.5 yards per game which was the fifth-most in football. They had the third-most defensive offsides and were one of 11 teams with double-digit DPI calls. 

Kansas City averaged 5.3 flags per game (12th) for 46.8 yards which ranked 18th. Their most frequent infractions were offensive holding (2nd most), offensive pass interference (four in total which were second most in the league), and DPI at one more than the 49ers. 

Each club had just a single roughing the passer on the season. 

Analysis

This crew is not a high-volume penalty group. This could help out the more aggressive players in the passing game and possibly in defending.

My first thought is that guys like Travis Kelce and Kittle would benefit the most from getting away with aggressive coinflip plays that might not be called with this officiating group.

The Chiefs run a lot of rubs that get Kelce open and Kittle is one of the more aggressive tight ends who was already busted for OPI in Super Bowl LIV by a Vinovich crew.

Kittle’s receiving total is as low as 45.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. Kittle is dealing with a toe injury which might explain the poor performance last Sunday. It’s also a slight price break as his total was 59.5 last week.

Kelce is the less bargain after a monster game vs. the Ravens. His current yardage total sits at 68.5 which is up nearly 10 yards from last week. 

I’m going to play both TEs’ Over the longest reception which both sit at 20.5. Each player is 7-2 to the Over across their last nine games and the extra leeway with the refs could help the hand-fighting which they should win vs. DBs all day. 

Kittle’s total is the best bargain of the two after it closed at 23.5 last week.

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