Super Bowl 57 Referee Analysis and Impact: Cheffers in Charge

Officiating does not find its way into many handicaps but with the constant issues seemingly every week, coupled with Roger Goodell’s blind eye to the problems, maybe bettors should take some time and look at who will be in control of Super Bowl 57.

Carl Cheffers will be the head official Sunday, and that isn't great news for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, but bettors can find a few ways to cash in on the flag-throwing referee when making their Super Bowl predictions.

Super Bowl 57 referee analysis

Joe Gibbs did a perfect piece at Sharp Football Analysis, with a thorough deep dive into the tendencies and penalty-calling of Super Bowl 57 referee Carl Cheffers. He leaves no proverbial stone unturned when looking at the potential impact Cheffers will have on this game, which might be lost on many.

If the name Cheffers doesn't ring a bell for you, it certainly will for Patrick Mahomes — and it isn’t great news for the Chiefs.

Cheffers was the referee for Super Bowl 55, when the Buccaneers beat Mahomes and the Chiefs convincingly, 31-9. Mahomes completed just 26 of his 49 passes for 270 yards, had two picks, and zero touchdowns. Mahomes was playing behind an injury-ravaged O-line in that game but the Chiefs still took 120 yards on 11 penalties, while the Bucs had just four flags for 39 yards. This will be Cheffers’ third Super Bowl as the head official.

Last time Cheffers refereed the Super Bowl: The eight penalties and 95 yards enforced against Kansas City, in the first half, were both NFL records for a Super Bowl. The first half penalties resulted in six first downs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers which was also an NFL record. https://t.co/EWutuQ8toN

— Chiefs Outsider - Chris (@chiefs_outsider) February 2, 2023

Gibbs’ research points to another Super Bowl where we could see plenty of penalties. 

Cheffers has led the league in penalties called in two of the last three seasons, which includes this year with an average of 11.9 penalties per game for 123 yards. 

Over the last 10 Super Bowls, the average number of flags has been 11.6 for 95.4 yards. His 159 total penalty yards in Super Bowl 55 is the most since 2009.

Across Mahomes' six-year career, the Chiefs average 6.3 penalties per game for 57 yards but when Cheffers is in charge (10 games), Kansas City averages two more penalties per game for an extra 20.5 yards. Just this season, the Chiefs averaged an additional 2.6 penalties for nearly 30 more yards in the two games Cheffers was in charge.

But what about the Eagles?

Cheffers has officiated just one Philadelphia game over the last three seasons. 

Tendencies

Cheffers calls plenty of offensive holding and ranked fifth overall this season. This could be a bigger issue for the Chiefs, who also rank fifth in offensive holding calls, and their 1.34 per game more than doubles when Cheffers in charge.

The head official is also one of the most frequent flag throwers on defensive pass interference, which he has no issues calling in the Big Game. In his two Super Bowl appearances, Cheffers and his crew have called five pass interferences when the NFL per-game average is below 1.3.

This is bad news for the Chiefs, as they took the most defensive pass interference penalties this season and face a Philadelphia offense that drew those penalties at a Top-10 rate.

Cheffers was also the referee for this call:

Chris Jones gets called for roughing the passer pic.twitter.com/QiTlE3CbiL

— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthewCFB) October 11, 2022

The only thing I see from Gibbs' work in the favor of the Chiefs is with unnecessary roughness calls. Cheffers has been near or at the top of the ranks in calling these 15-yard infractions, and the Eagles took the fifth-most unnecessary roughness penalties this season.

Carl Cheffers Stats

Learn more about Cheffers by taking a look at his official referee stats from the past five seasons.

Legend: Home% = Percentage of penalties called on home team; HWIN% = Home team winning percentage; Total = Total penalties called; Yards =Total penalty yardage

Takeaways

Gibbs paints a very good picture of the tendencies and familiarity that Cheffers has with the Chiefs and it’s tough to ignore the consistent negative impact the referee has had on this team. 

What’s even more amazing is that in the last 10 Chiefs games that Cheffers has officiated, Kansas City is still 8-2 SU. However, Gibbs points out that the Chiefs were favored in all 10 of those games by an average of 7.5 points and went 3-7 against the spread. 

If Cheffers is deciding this game, it certainly looks to favor the Eagles.

Despite the worry for KC backers, bettors can apply these numbers to the few penalty markets that are available — most noticeably the total accepted penalties market at bet365. 

The total is currently sitting at 9.5 and is paying -105 to the Over with a heftier 7% margin. This looks like a great spot to take the Over, with a referee who has called more penalties this season than any other official. 

The Over has hit in six of the last eight Super Bowls and in both of Cheffers’. 

Notes on Cheffers' officiating history

• 1-10 O/U in his 11 playoff games.
  
  
• Favorites are 7-4 SU in those 11 playoff games, with the Chiefs taking two of those losses (SB 55 and the 2017 Divisional Round game at home).
  
  
• Over the Chiefs’ last 100 games, the Chiefs have committed 17 roughing the passer penalties and Cheffers has called five of them (29.4%) despite officiating in just 10% of the games. 
  
  
• Cheffers’ eight penalties for 95 yards vs. the Chiefs in SB 55 were both NFL records for the Super Bowl and led to six first downs for the Bucs. 
  
  
• He led the league in penalties called in 2021 and again this season at 12.59 penalties per game for 109 yards. The season-average this year for accepted penalties was 9.22 penalties per game for 75.92 yards. 

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