How to Approach Super Bowl Betting Trends in 2024

While many sharp sports betting types are quick to dismiss most betting trends for Super Bowl odds, I think there are plenty that are worthy of basing bets around. At the same time, many trends are mere coincidences and hold no relevance to the teams playing.

When it comes to Super Bowl LVIII, we've got a mix of each. We've seen trends for both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers carryover from the regular season into the playoffs that are worth considering. We'll also be flooded with silly ones related to the color of jerseys, who wins the coin toss, and the astronomy signs of each quarterback. 

While the silly ones make for fun anecdotes, you shouldn't be dipping into your betting bankroll to back them. We do, however, have a few credible trends for the Chiefs and 49ers that can give us a bit of a head start with handicapping the latest NFL odds.

Let's begin by focusing on the noteworthy trends, and we'll also explore some historical Super Bowl trends, as well as the lighthearted ones that can entertain casual attendees at your Super Bowl party.

For more Super Bowl picks, be sure to check out our 49ers vs. Chiefs predictions and our Super Bowl props!

Team trends

There's no guarantee that these trends carry over from the previous games that each team has played this season, as the Super Bowl differs significantly from your typical regular season or postseason contest. That said, there are a few patterns that stand out for each team that should be on our radars.

Chiefs second half Unders

It’s the trend that won’t die as 18 of 20 Kansas City Chiefs games this season have gone Under the second-half total! These games have seen an average of just 14.4 second-half points. The trend has gone 3-0 in the playoffs thanks to the Chiefs allowing just 10 total second-half points vs the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens. The second-half total for this game is 23.5.

Kansas City is barking loud as an underdog

Yeah, they’re barely an underdog, but they’re still the team with the ‘+’ next to their odds, which is a spot they’ve been dynamite in! They’re on a roll that’s seen them go 17-4-1 ATS with 16 outright wins in their last 22 games as an underdog. This tear includes wins in these playoffs vs. Buffalo and Baltimore, and also last year’s Super Bowl win as a one-point underdog against the Eagles.

49ers finish strong

I think it’s fair to say the San Francisco 49ers have gotten off to uninspiring starts in their playoff games against the Lions and Packers, but they were clutch in the fourth quarter of these games, outscoring each team. Strong fourth quarters were also part of their DNA during the regular season, and they’re now 14-5 ATS in the final quarter in the 19 games this season. They’re favored by 0.5 points in the fourth quarter in Super Bowl LVIII. 

Historic trends

One Super Bowl has very little connective tissue with the next, so historic Super Bowl trends are almost purely fluff for handicapping this year's game. Yes, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid now have a three-game sample size in this game, but any casual should be able to tell you that this year's Chiefs roster is much different from their previous Super Bowl teams.

First team to score wins

The team that opens scoring has gone on to win in 37 of 57 Super Bowls (65%), including eight of the previous 12. Ironically enough, in the Chiefs’ two recent Super Bowl wins, the opponent scored first, but they scored first in their Super Bowl loss to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

Underdogs cover the spread

Point spread underdogs have barked loudest on Super Bowl Sunday over the past 16 games, covering in 12 of those contests. That includes Kansas City covering as a small underdog in last season’s Super Bowl against the Eagles.

However, Super Bowl favorites still own the all-time edge at 28-26-2 ATS heading into Super Bowl 58 (one Super Bowl closed pick'em — no favorite/underdog).

Super Bowl winners cover the spread

The team that hoists the Lombardi Trophy usually comes through for football bettors in the process, with Super Bowl winners covering the spread in 48 of the past 57 games. The Super Bowl winner has produced just seven ATS losses and two pushes, including the L.A. Rams two years ago, who won 23-20 as a four-point favorite against the Bengals.

Over/Under is a coin-flip

Super Bowl totals have an all-time tally of 28-28 Over/Under, and this year’s is sitting at 47 O/U. When these two teams met in Super Bowl LIV, they combined for 51 points, narrowly staying beneath the 53-point total.

Short playoff favorites stink

Postseason favorites of less than a field goal have been a bad bet since the millennium. Faves of less than a field goal (-2.5 or shorter) are just 22-25 SU and 18-28-1 ATS (39%) since 2000. And what do ya know, here we are with another postseason game with a short spread inside of 2.5 points.

Wide receivers produce the first touchdown

The touchdown scorer markets are hugely popular. The player to score the first TD of the Super Bowl promises a pretty payout. As you shop these odds, keep in mind that wide receivers have produced the first touchdown of the Super Bowl on 25 occasions (43.8% of the time).

Running backs are next with 16 (28%), followed by defense/special teams players and tight ends each with five (8.77%), quarterbacks with five (8.7%), and fullbacks with two (3.50%). 

Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts scored the first touchdown in last year’s game, while Mahomes scored the first TD when these teams met in Super Bowl LIV.

Silly trends that are fun to talk about… and that’s about it

While trends from the regular season and some historical numbers can be reliable to back your bets on, we also have a lot of downright stupid ones that have absolutely nothing to do with the matchup in front of us. Let’s explore!

White jerseys win more

The team wearing white has won 16 of the past 19 Super Bowls, including the Chiefs last season. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they won’t get a chance to extend this trend as it's been announced that the 49ers will be the ones wearing white in Super Bowl LVIII.

Bet on the team with the worse regular-season record

Fading the team with the better regular-season record has been making bank in the past 19 Super Bowls, with the “better” team winning the Big Game just three times (Super Bowls XLIII, LI, and LVI).

This season, the 49ers (12-5) edged out the Chiefs (11-6) during the regular season.

Tails wins the coin flip more

Tails never fail? Well, it doesn’t fail as much as heads…

The coin toss has come up tails in 30 of the past 57 Super Bowls, including six of the past 10 flips. Since Super Bowl XLIX in 2014, the coin toss winner has gone on to lose the Super Bowl in eight of nine games, with the Chiefs bringing this slide to a halt last season.

Logically, there’s no right way to cap a literal coin flip, so do whatever you want.

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