Best Super Bowl Touchdown Props: Pulling Out All the Stops

Prop bet #1: Praying for a fast start

Nobody is out here betting on Christian McCaffrey’s anytime TD at its current price of -250ish, but there might be an edge to take the running back to find the end zone in the first 30 minutes of the game at a better +130 price available at DraftKings.

The San Francisco 49ers all-purpose back has 25 total TDs on the year with 16 of those coming in the first half. He’s played 18 games and scored in 15 of those. In those 15 scoring games, he has a first-half TD in 13 of them.

Looking at the percentages, he has scored a 1H TD in 72% of the games he’s played and a 1H TD in 87% of the games he’s scored in.

A lot of the early scoring has to do with how good the 49ers are on scripted plays and the opening drive. Heading into last week, they had the best TD% on opening drives of the four remaining teams at 55% on the season and were as short as +150 to score on the opening drive. He’s scored in each of the five playoff games with the Niners and had a first-half TD in three of those games.

The Kansas City Chiefs are also one of the weaker rush defenses of the 2023 NFL playoffs.

Christian McCaffrey prop: First-half TD (+140 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Rice is nice

There are not a lot of darkhorse TD plays in this game as both offenses have a tight trust circle of offensive players which is why guys like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Rashee Rice are priced from +140 to +175.

Of that group, I’m highest on Rice at +140. The 49ers’ trio takes away from each other, but Rice is always the No.2 passing option for an offense that has the second-highest pass rate in football.

THE BLITZ is projecting a better-than-expected performance from the KC receiver at 85 receiving yards with a receiving total of 69.5 yards. He has come on as a trusted target since the Week 9 bye and has increased his targets per game by 4.05 since the break and is averaging 6.7 receptions, 78.3 yards, and 0.4 TDs per game since Week 10.

Travis Kelce will receive a ton of attention next Sunday and Patrick Mahomes could easily go to his secondary choices just as he did in last year’s Super Bowl where both Kadarius Toney and Skyy Morre had scores.

It’s not a big number, but Rice at +140 is the best mid-range TD in this game from my perspective. This is the same closing price as the Buffalo game which was played in poorer passing conditions. The indoor setting only increases pass volume and efficiency, which benefits Rice’s TD chances.

Rashee Rice prop: Anytime TD (+140 at bet365) 

Prop bet #3: Six shades of Gray

Last week I was a yard and a better decision short of cashing a +1,900 TD which is something that never happens when you’re betting on TDs. That is about as long a price as bettors will find in the market.

For the final longshot of the season, I’m looking for odds of +500 or better and because of that small trust circle from both offenses, there aren’t a ton of choices.

I’m well aware that Kyle Juszczyk to score at +1,200 (at bet365) will be a popular pick but KC tight end Noah Gray at +900 (FanDuel) is my best moonshot.

Pinnacle is pricing this at +594 which is always a good indicator of where the market is heading which means the +900 is a solid price.

Gray has just two TDs on the year and is nothing I’d want to put even more than a quarter unit on, but he did have one red-zone target vs. the Ravens last week and opportunities are the most important thing when taking these long-odd TDs.

The Chiefs could also be running with success vs. the 49ers who have been awful at setting the edge vs. the run and Green Bay and Detroit exploited that matchup. That could lead the Chiefs to running more heavy sets which would keep Gray on the field.

The Chiefs use two TEs on 40% of their 1st-down plays which is one of the highest rates in football. It will likely have to be a play-action pass out of a heavy set near the goal line, but the closer he is to the endzone the better for his opportunities. He does have one TD of 34 yards and another of two yards, so there is a little variety in his potential TD scenario.

Noah Gray prop: Anytime TD (+900 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)