Early Texans vs Jets Predictions, Picks, and Odds for TNF Week 9

If the New York Jets are going to make another snap decision after their loss to the New England Patriots, they better hurry up. 

Gang Green doesn’t have much time for moves or preparation with the Houston Texans showing up at MetLife Stadium for Thursday Night Football in Week 9.

I look into the opening spread and total for this Halloween headliner and give my best leans and early Texans vs. Jets predictions and NFL picks for October 31.

Texans vs Jets predictions

Early spread lean
New York Jets +1.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

My analysis

Despite the New York Jets losing an ugly outing in New England on Sunday, oddsmakers still opened New York as a short home favorite against the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football. 

However, after the Jets started as 1-point faves, we’re seeing a split across the industry with that line sliding to Houston -1 on Monday morning.

The Texans are undoubtedly playing better football, coming off a close win over Indianapolis, giving them four victories in the last five outings. 

The overall public sentiment is absolutely leaning toward Houston, hence the spread jumping the fence, and will continue to all week as the media has a field day shitting on Aaron Rodgers & Co.

But the schedule is working against Houston on Thursday, with this being the team’s third road game in a four-game, 18-day window. The Texans don’t have great memories of MetLife Stadium, either. They battled the Jets in East Rutherford in a wet Week 14 last December, losing 30-6 while also watching star QB C.J. Stroud go down with a concussion.

While Stroud is healthy heading into this Week 9 rematch, his receiving corps isn’t. Houston was already down top WR Nico Collins and now could be without veteran Stefon Diggs, who left the win over Indianapolis with a knee injury.

We’ve watched the Texans passing game get very limited in recent weeks, with the average yards per completion dropping from 7.5 to 6.3 over the last three contests. Houston is 22nd in EPA per dropback in that span and for as inconsistent as the Jets’ stop unit has been, it is among the best pass defense and ranks No. 2 in success rate allowed per dropback.

Personally, I’m not rushing to trust Gang Green with my money. But the situation suits New York, so I’ll lean toward them as a moneyline underdog at -105 on the outright odds.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 42.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

I mentioned the Texans’ injury issues at receiver and New York’s stellar secondary. Given that, we could see Houston rely on the rushing attack — a lot. 

The Texans haven’t been great at running the ball, currently sitting 30th in EPA per handoff on the season, but the Jets aren’t the best at stopping the run either. New York has allowed more than 100 yards on the ground in three straight games and sits in the Bottom 10 in EPA allowed per carry and opponent success rate per handoff in that span.

New York’s offense continues to be a work in progress. Rodgers and the passing game are underwhelming, even with Davante Adams lining up. The Jets' veteran gunslinger finished with 233 yards on less than 61% completions on Sunday but did connect for two passing TDs.

Houston’s defense keeps the team competitive most weeks, having held four of its last four opponents to 21 points or less. The Texans rank among the elite in terms of advanced defensive metrics, including No. 1 in opponent success rate per play. 

They’ve checked foes to the third-fewest first downs, a 25% conversion rate on third downs the past three games but seem to buckle inside the red zone (70% TD rate allowed in RZ). Houston has also been softer against the run, so New York may lean into the ground game as well.

Short gains with the clock ticking is how you make Unders. The Texans are 2-6 Over/Under entering Week 9 while the Jets have stayed below the total in two of three home stands, with that lone Over a 43-point finish versus a 42-point closing total.

I’ll lean Under the current number of 42.5. 

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