Texans vs Jets Predictions, Picks, and Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

Logan's TNF Best Bet: With the Texans' top receivers banged up, tight end Dalton Schultz should see an uptick in production against a Jets defense that has some spooky injuries of their own.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Oct 31, 2024 • 19:33 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Week 9 TNF NFL
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Will Halloween bettors get a trick or a treat when the Houston Texans knock on the door of MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets tonight?

The short week doesn’t do Houston any favors, with the receiving corps missing top targets. That pumps up the involvement of tight end Dalton Schultz in my Texans vs. Jets predictions, taking on a New York defense also missing key pieces.

Find out more in my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football on October 31. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, with the game airing on Amazon Prime.

Texans vs Jets TNF prediction

My best bet
Dalton Schultz longest reception Over 16.5 yards (-128 at FanDuel)

My analysis

Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz is already playing a significant role in the Texans' passing playbook, running the second most snaps among tight ends, the fourth most routes for the position, and ranking ninth in air yards among TEs. 

Schultz is tied for third in total targets for the team, but with WRs Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs out of commission for Week 9, his involvement in the offense just skyrocketed. 

On the season, Schultz is averaging just short of three receptions on almost five targets per game. With Collins out, he’s drawn six or more targets in three of the last four outings while averaging almost 11 yards per reception. 

The New York Jets defense has been susceptible to bigger plays, allowing 23 receptions of 20-plus, while also allowing an average depth of target of 9.4 yards — third highest in the NFL. New York has limited rival TEs to just over nine yards per catch on the season, but the short week could leave massive questions in terms of how the Jets will defend Schultz. 

Not only could Gang Green be missing its two starting safeties in Ashtyn Davis and Tony Adams, but top coverage linebacker C.J. Mosley is trending toward missing Thursday due to a neck injury. Backup LB Chazz Surratt is also limited heading into Week 9.

Unlike some tight ends, Schultz is utilized on deeper routes and has seen his share of targets on intermediate-to-deep play calls (10 to 20+ yards). He’s eighth in average depth of target among tight ends with 10 or more targets on the season and has posted longs of 17, 18, 23, and 28 yards over the last five games.

Schultz's longest receptions prop has been parked at 15.5 yards O/U for the past few weeks. While his receptions and yardage totals for Week 9 have been jacked up with the market reacting to the Texans' missing receivers, his longest reception bar for Thursday climbs to just 16.5, with some books listing as high as 18.5 yards for this player O/U.

Get more analysis from Jason by watching the Sharp 600 podcast!

Get more Texans vs. Jets picks and Week 9 best bets from Jason — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!

Watch now on the Covers' YouTube channel!

Texans vs Jets TNF same-game parlay

Dalton Schultz 4+ receptions

Joe Mixon 3+ receptions

Breece Hall anytime touchdown

Schultz’s role gets a boost with the Texans' receiving corps in shambles. He’s caught four balls in three of his last four games.

Meanwhile, Joe Mixon should also help fill gaps in the passing game. He had four grabs on six targets last Sunday.

Breece Hall is a threat to run or catch for a touchdown, facing a Texans defense ranked 30th in red-zone TD rate.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Texans vs Jets odds

Texans vs Jets live odds

Texans vs Jets opening odds

  • Spread: Houston +1.5 | New York -1.5
  • Moneyline: Houston -105 | New York -115
  • Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Texans vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Sportsbooks opened with the Jets as slight favorites at home, with New York listed at -1.5. Some books took money on the visitor and jumped the fence with Houston at -1 in the opening 12 hours of action.
  • Since that split, we’ve seen a market consensus move toward the Jets, with respected money taking New York. That has this spread sitting as high as Gang Green -2.5.
  • FanDuel is reporting that 66% of tickets and 59% of handle is on the Texans to win outright.
  • As for the total, it opened at 42.5 and has bounced around that number. According to Covers Consensus, 67% of picks are backing the Over. 

Texans vs Jets betting trend to know

With this game on Halloween and the costumed crowds at MetLife Stadium enjoying some “holiday cheer”, could there be an extra advantage for the Jets? Well, home teams on October 31 are 27-16 SU and 24-18-1 ATS (57%) since 2000, including home teams boasting a 7-2 SU and ATS record in primetime games on All Hallows' Eve. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Jets.

How to watch Texans vs Jets

Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Thursday, 10-31, 2024
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Amazon Prime

Learn how to live stream Texans vs. Jets for free.

Texans vs Jets latest injuries

Texans vs Jets weather

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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