The Tennessee Titans and the Buffalo Bills collide at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, October 20. The Bills are one of the front runners in the AFC, while the Titans look like they’re competing for the first overall pick in next April’s draft.
Things don’t always work out as expected in the NFL, but I just can’t see the Titans creating an upset in hostile territory this week. See why in my Titans vs. Bills predictions and free NFL picks for Week 7.
Titans vs Bills prediction
My best bet
Bills -9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Sunday sees two teams off to very different starts to the season colliding. The Buffalo Bills lead the AFC East by two wins but with Jets’ coaching changes and the return of Tua Tagovailoa imminent for the Dolphins, they can’t take their foot off the gas pedal.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans are languishing with a 1-4 record in the AFC South, already four wins behind the Texans. It’s expected that Will Levis will start for the Titans despite currently nursing a shoulder injury. He currently has the keys to the offense but with seven interceptions to five touchdowns and an average QB rating of 70.7, that might not be for long, with or without injury.
That said, Mason Rudolph under center wouldn’t be an upgrade either, in the unlikely event it were to happen due to Levis’ injury this Sunday.
With the offense ranking 28th in DVOA, it means that they’ve needed to rely heavily on their defense, which ranks ninth in DVOA. They’ve been giving up just 22 points per game and rank ninth against the run, averaging 111.8 yards allowed per game. Where they’ve really shone is against the pass, with their 137 yards allowed per game being the fewest in the NFL. With that in mind, we’re not likely to see the Bills relying solely on Josh Allen’s arm to win this one.
The Bills are one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL right now, ranking third in offensive DVOA and 12th in defensive DVOA. The offense is putting up 27.5 points per game despite looking different from what we saw last year, when they averaged 244.4 passing yards per game compared with just 186.3 this season.
The departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are part of that change, but the trade for Amari Cooper now gives Allen a top pass-catcher who should offer a red-zone threat as well as an ability to move the chains, so we can expect an improvement in those numbers soon.
We saw Allen throw for 215 yards and two touchdowns last week against the second-best pass defense in the league, while rookie Ray Davis managed just shy of 100 yards rushing. We’re likely to see another well-rounded offensive performance here.
The arrival of Cooper really adds some spice to what is already a good Bills’ offense, and with their talented defense, they should be able to cover the spread against what has been a turgid Titans offense through six weeks. The line has already risen from 7.5 to 9.5, and even if it were to hit double-digits, I’d still have to back Sean McDermott’s team to cover.
Amari Cooper pick: Instant dividends
My best bet
Amari Cooper anytime TD (+250 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Tuesday’s trade that saw Cooper switch from Cleveland to Buffalo already seems like a great move. The Bills gave up a 2025 third-round pick and a 2026 seventh-rounder for the five-time Pro Bowler and a 2025 sixth-round pick.
He’s a true No. 1 receiver and gives Allen another target with the potential to be a gamebreaker. In return, Cooper gets the best quarterback of his career to work with.
Last season, Cooper had a career high 1,309 yards and is likely to return to similar numbers after a poor start to his season. He’s scored just twice in 2024 and averaged only 41.6 receiving yards per game, but it’s worth noting that his 455 uncatchable air yards was also the most of any WR in the league. Let’s back Cooper to find the endzone in his Bills debut.
Titans vs Bills same-game parlay
Bills -9.5
Josh Allen anytime TD
Titans team total Under 16.5
In addition to our best bet for the game we’re going to add another two legs to our same-game parlay. First up, we’re taking Allen to find the endzone.
We all know that Allen is one of the very best quarterbacks in the league when using his legs and he already has three rushing touchdowns through six games, including one last time out against the Jets. He’s rushing slightly less this season, with an average of 5.8 rushes per game compared to 6.8 last season, but he’s still deadly on the ground.
Given he accumulated 18 rushing TDs last year and the Titans’ comparative weakness against the run compared to the pass, I’m anticipating Allen breaking the plane.
Our final leg of the same-game parlay is Under 16.5 total points for the Titans. This is an offense that has really struggled this year. They’ve averaged 19.2 points per game, but considering their past three opponents have been the Colts, Dolphins, and Packers, we should be in for a drop.
In fact, aside from a 31-point haul against the Dolphins, they’ve not managed more than 17 points in any of their other games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Titans vs Bills odds
Titans vs Bills live odds
Titans vs Bills opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee +7.5 | Buffalo -7.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee +285 | Buffalo -360
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Titans vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Titans are just 1-4 against the spread this season.
- The Bills are unbeaten at home this year.
- The Bills won the last meeting between these teams, 41-7, back in September of 2022.
- The Over/Under is 3-3 for the Bills this season and 2-2-1 for the Titans.
Titans vs Bills betting trend to know
The Bills have hit the first half Over in eight of their past 11 home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Bills.
Titans vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-20-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Titans vs Bills latest injuries
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