The calendar turns the page to October, which means more weather influencing the outcome of NFL games, and — in effect — the latest NFL odds.
Week 5 odds call for some classic fall climates, with wind and rain showing up on Sunday in NFL weather reports. I dive into those games potentially impacted by the outdoors and how that should shape your NFL picks.
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings weather
The first London game of the 2024 schedule sends the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday morning.
Forecasts vary for the 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff, with the chance of rain ranging from 36% to 70% depending on the weather model. Hotspur Stadium is a strange setup, with the seating covered by a partial roof but the playing surface open in the middle.
That may keep the winds at bay, with gusts up to 24 mph projected, but the flipped-over field — swapping out natural soccer sod for artificial turf in NFL games — could be slick. Last season, players complained about the quality of the surface at Tottenham and how hard it was.
Slick footing and wet footballs could come into play in terms of miscues. New York sits tied for third in dropped passes this season (9) and Aaron Rodgers is nursing a swollen knee and a tender Achilles as the team flies overseas for Week 5.
Minnesota leads the NFL in fumbles lost with four, including a botched punt return in Week 4. However, Sam Darnold’s receiving corps has been surehanded with only two total drops through four games.
The total for Sunday’s UK outing opened at 41.5 points and has taken Under money down to 40 O/U at some books.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears weather
It would seem fitting that Soldier Field gives us the strongest winds, as forecasts call for sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts of up to 30 mph, blowing west from sideline to sideline on Sunday.
Those breezes will make kicking — field goals, PATs, and punts — trickier, as well as plague any deep downfield pass attempts. This Over/Under total opened at 43 points and has come down to as low as 40.5 O/U.
The Carolina Panthers' air attack is very conservative, sitting in the bottom third in terms of air yards attempted. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears have seen rookie QB Caleb Williams not hesitate to let the deep ball fly (for better or worse), ranking seventh in intended air yards per attempt but not always connecting on those chucks.
Field goal kicking could be a deciding factor with the spread sitting at Chicago -4. Bears kicker Cairo Santos is 7-for-8 on field goal attempts with that lone miss coming from 50-plus yards. Panthers’ leg Eddy Pineiro is a perfect 6 for 6 on FGAs, making all three kicks from 40-49 yards but not attempting a FG of 50+ yards this season.
On special teams, both offenses’ ineptitudes have led to plenty of punts. The Bears average five punts per game while the Panthers are right behind them at 4.5 an outing, with Carolina sitting 30th in net yards per punt.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals weather
Winds will blow at sustained speeds of 15 mph at Paycor Stadium with gusts getting up to 32 mph according to some forecasts, moving WSW from sideline to sideline. Again, stronger wins wreak havoc with deeper passes and special teams.
So far in 2024, both Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson have kept their passes fairly conservative, but the Cincinnati Bengals do throw at a much higher rate than the Baltimore Ravens (61.5% versus 45%), so Cincy could be more influenced by those gusts. The Ravens secondary could also get bailed out by those breezes after allowing a league-high 20 passing plays of 20-plus yards.
Bengals kicker Evan McPherson is 9-for-10 on field goals so far in 2024, with his one miss coming in the 40-49 yards range. Ravens’ kicker Justin Tucker, on the other hand, is not having a very “Justin Tucker” start to the season. He’s 5-for-8 on FGAs, including 0-for-2 on 50-plus attempts, and blames a “technique issue” for his wayward boot.
The total for this AFC North rivalry was as high as 51 points but is now knocked down to 48.5 O/U.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars weather
Thunderstorms during hurricane season in Florida can pop up whenever, and that's the case for Northern Florida on Sunday.
The threat of rain is very real when the Indianapolis Colts take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, with some projections calling for a 77% chance of thunderstorms. Those showers could lighten or pass by the time the second half rolls around.
Sustained winds are expected to blow at 11 mph with wind gusts up to 21 mph, moving ENE from corner to corner at EverBank Stadium. Humidity will be around 80%, which makes the 80-degree temps “feel like” closer to 100 degrees for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff.
Slippery footballs can equal fumbles and drops. Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawerence is struggling with his accuracy and has seen his targets drop eight balls already. Lawrence has also been mistake-prone when running with the ball, having lost five fumbles in each of the past two seasons.
Indianapolis could have Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco under center, with the second-year QB questionable with a hip injury. Richardson was limited in practice and has three fumbles on the year.
As for Flacco, he was 16-for-26 in relief of the injured Richardson last Sunday and is still working on his chemistry with his receivers. The Colts could be without starting center Ryan Kelly again, leaving snaps in the slick weather to backup Tanor Bortolini.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers weather
Santa Clara should be cool and sunny for this NFC West war, but the breezes could blow at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Forecasts call for sustained winds around 10 mph but there could be random gusts up to 23 mph, moving NW from endzone to endzone. It’s nothing too crazy but could make longer field goal attempts a touch trickier, especially if the Arizona Cardinals have to scramble for a kicker.
Arizona veteran Matt Prater is a perfect 6-for-6 on the season but has played three of his four games indoors and enters Week 5 with a questionable designation after missing practice with a sore left knee.
The San Francisco 49ers have called on kicker Jake Moody a dozen times already in 2024, and he’s come up good all but once — missing an attempt from 50+. Moody has quickly become one of the more reliable legs in the league in just two short seasons.
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers weather
Forecasts for Sunday Night Football range from a 65% chance of rain to an 88% shot at the wet stuff for Acrisure Stadium.
Thunderstorms will be in the area that evening, giving an edge to the outdoor home team against the Dallas Cowboys, who reportedly will have to brave the piss-stained visitors' locker room in Week 5.
Winds could also reach gusts up to 24 mph in the first half of this primetime showcase, blowing sideline to sideline in the opening 30 minutes before settling down in the final two frames.
The Pittsburgh Steelers could grind it out on the mucky Kentucky bluegrass surface, coming into Sunday as the fourth-most run-heavy attack in the NFL. Dallas’ defense is also missing bodies up front and rates among the worst rushing defenses, sitting 21st in run-stop win rate and 31st in EPA allowed per carry.
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