Avalanche vs Lightning Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Kucherov Outshines MacKinnon as Lightning Strike Often

The betting favorites in the NHL MVP odds will meet tonight as Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche wrap up a six-game road trip vs. Nikita Kucherov and the Tampa Bay Lightning in a game oddsmakers have as a pick ‘em.

Despite the coin flip on the moneyline, Tampa has been one of the best offensive teams on home ice while the Avs are one the most porous clubs of late. Is it time to back the Bolts’ offense on Thursday night?

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Avalanche vs. Lightning for Thursday, February 15. 

Avalanche vs Lightning odds

Avalanche vs Lightning predictions

The Tampa Bay Lightning have the No. 3 scoring offense in hockey at 3.92 goals per game. Since the beginning of the calendar year, Tampa has cruised at home with a 6-0 SU record, 31 goals, and has hit the Over team total 3.5 in five of those six games. 

The power play is at a sizzling 41.2% over that stretch and gets a great matchup tonight vs. the Colorado Avalanche’s Bottom-10 penalty kill that has given up four goals in 10 kills over its last three games. 

Colorado is still a very overvalued team in my opinion and winning on the back of its offense, as this is a team that is struggling to keep its opponent off the board. The Avs have the No. 1 offense at 3.94 goals per game since January 1 but also allow 3.59 goals per game, which is the sixth-worst mark in the league.

Projected starter Alex Georgiev has a .895 save percentage over his last 15 games and has given up four or more goals in seven of them. His team isn’t helping him out much as the Avalanche also rank 29th in expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5 over the last 30 days.

In a game where both offenses should shine and there is a ton on the line for Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov in both the Hart Trophy and Art Ross race, the Tampa offense to hit four goals at home is my best bet. 

My best bet: Tampa Bay team total Over 3.5 (+100 at BetMGM)

Avalanche vs Lightning same-game parlay

Nikita Kucherov 2+ points

Brayden Point 1+ points

Lightning team total Over 3.5

30% boost available

+210 +273 at bet365

I could go bigger here, but if Tampa is getting four or more goals, the top line is going to continue to get the points. With a massive MVP race on the go, Kucherov will have ample opportunities to get empty-net points. Brayden Point plays all his shifts with Kucherov and helps make up a great pairing.

Tampa's offense has been elite at home, scoring nearly four goals per game on the season, and now faces a team that has been awful at 5-on-5, can't get goaltending, and has a great offense that can keep the Tampa forwards engaged. I could easily see this finish 5-2 in favor of the Bolts with an empty-netter where Kucherov touches the puck. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Avalanche vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis

There have been some inconsistencies with this moneyline. Some books opened Tampa as short as -125, and others opened this at a pick’ em. There is some shopping around value here, but I’m strong on the Bolts for multiple reasons. 

The Lightning can keep pace with the Colorado offense but Tampa is the better defensive team, has the better goaltending, has the better special teams — especially on the PK — and has a schedule advantage. 

This will be Colorado’s last game of a six-game road trip where it’s gone 1-4 SU to date and has been outscored 19-12, with six of those offensive goals coming in its last game vs. Washington. The Colorado special teams have also been outscored 4-1. 

The Bolts are elite at home with a 17-5-3 record and a +1.12 goal differential per game. Since January 1, they are undefeated on home ice at 6-0 with an incredible +2.67 goal differential per game.

The Over is unsurprisingly taking money after opening at 6.5 and hitting 7 in some places. The Avs are one of the best Over teams in hockey at 32-20-2 O/U and have averaged a total of 7.53 goals per game since January 1. 

Tampa Bay could flirt with five goals tonight thanks to a big power-play advantage. Colorado should get at least two goals themselves. Both teams to score 3+ goals is +125 at bet365 and so is BTTS in the first period. 

I think the Avs are still being overvalued thanks to poor 5-on-5 metrics and their average goaltending. The Tampa ML at -110 is a solid grab today and pairs very nicely with the team total Over 3.5. Because of the Colorado offense that can push the Bolts, Tampa to score five-plus goals is also in play at +220.

Avalanche vs Lightning betting trend to know

The Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 42 games at home (+4.40 Units / 9% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Lightning.

Avalanche vs Lightning game info

Avalanche vs Lightning latest injuries

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