A pair of 33-win teams will meet in Alberta tonight as the Edmonton Oilers, the league’s best team over the last three months at 24-6, host the Boston Bruins, who are fresh off an ugly seven-game home stand where they finished with just a pair of victories.
It hasn't been pretty for the Bruins since the All-Star break and their special teams have been a mess. Can the Oilers and their best-in-the-West power play find success vs. the visitors who have given up 10 power-play goals over their last 10 games?
I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Bruins vs. Oilers on Wednesday, February 21.
Bruins vs Oilers odds
Bruins vs Oilers predictions
The Boston Bruins finished up an ugly seven-game homestand (2-3-2) on Monday and will be happy to get out of the city but facing the best team in hockey since December 1 is a tough spot to begin a four-game West-coast road trip.
The Bruins have been let down by their special teams of late as this Boston power play ranks 30th in hockey with a 9% success rate over the last 30 days while the penalty kill isn’t doing much better at 68%, which ranks 28th.
Considering the Bruins take penalties at a Top-5 rate and the Edmonton Oilers power play is scoring at 35% at home — the highest rate in the league — the man advantage has a great opportunity to make a difference for the home team tonight.
This leads us to PP1 quarterback Evan Bouchard’s Overs. His power-play point is a reasonable +210 but I’m targeting his Over 0.5 assists at +105 and his Over 2.5 SOG at -105.
The offensive defenseman is on a tear right now with nine points over his last four games, including seven helpers, with three of those coming in the last game vs. Arizona.
He’s also been shooting a lot with 15 SOG over those four days. The Bruins allow more shots on goal than some assume. On the road, Boston is allowing 33.3 shots per game and ranks 25th in shot attempt differential on the road over the entire season.
Edmonton is coming off another solid win in Arizona with a score-happy third period and get the Bruins and their poor special teams at a low point on the season. The buzz has been around Connor McDavid and his push for the scoring lead, but Bouchard is in a great spot tonight thanks to possibly more time on the power play.
I’m playing the Edmonton defenseman for an assist and then adding another unit on his Over 2.5 shots at the same price.
My best bet: Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 assists (+105 at SIA) and Over 2.5 SOG (-105 at SIA)
Bruins vs Oilers same-game parlay
Over 5.5
Oilers moneyline
Zach Hyman anytime goal
There aren't any point or SOG options for the SGP at SIA but Zach Hyman gets a huge bump moving to a line with McDavid and playing net-front on the power play, where I expect the Oilers to have an advantage.
The moneyline movement is in favor of the Bruins but losing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is worth 10 points at most and Edmonton has been the best team in hockey since the beginning of December. They have a big advantage on the power play as the Bruins have a Bottom-5 PK and PP over the last 30 days and their play at home since the break has not been inspiring.
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Bruins vs Oilers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Bruins opened as +120 road dogs but have taken a lot of money Wednesday afternoon, which has moved that moneyline to +105 at SIA. The total opened at 6.5 and has bounced around from 6.5 to 6 at SIA.
Some of that movement might have to do with Nugent-Hopkins missing the morning skate for the Oilers. McDavid was practicing on a line with Hyman and Warren Foegele. McDavid had been playing with Corey Perry and Leon Draisaitl, so this move is a bump for Hyman while Evander Kane is on the top power-play unit and playing with Draisaitl at 5-on-5.
Both teams are coming back from road trips so there isn’t a huge schedule advantage for either club. However, Boston is still an overvalued team and has played just seven road games since January 1. Tonight will be its first travel game since January 27.
Boston ranks 23rd in shot attempt differential since January 1 at 5-on-5 and has the No.3 shooting percentage and No.5 save percentage at even strength. Considering the lack of scoring depth on this roster, both of those numbers could potentially fall
Even with RNH possibly missing the contest and a goalie matchup of Stuart Skinner (confirmed) vs. Linus Ullmark (likely), I’m taking the Oilers at a discounted price thanks to the afternoon ML movement. The Boston special teams have been in the Bottom 5 since the All-Star break and this No.1 home power play of the Oilers can win that special-teams battle.
Because of those extra PP opportunities, if bettors can find this total at 6, I’d take some on the Over as well.
Bruins vs Oilers betting trend to know
The Edmonton Oilers have hit the 1P Game Total Over in 59 of their last 89 games (+15.15 Units / 10% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Oilers.
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Bruins vs Oilers game info
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 21, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Bruins vs Oilers latest injuries
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