We’ve got 10 games on the NHL docket tonight, including a matinee between the Toronto Maple Leafs and St. Louis Blues.
The NHL odds suggest the Leafs will win the game, but with many question marks on the health of their blue line today, I’d prefer to look at the shot prop market.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this afternoon's matchup between the Maple Leafs and Blues on Monday, February 19.
Maple Leafs vs Blues odds
Maple Leafs vs Blues predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs and St. Louis Blues are set to play for the second time in six days. The Leafs were victorious last Tuesday while extremely shorthanded after Morgan Rielly’s suspension kicked in, along with the absences of Mitch Marner and John Tavares due to illness.
Well, a similar storyline could dominate this game for a Leafs team dealing with injuries on the backend with Timothy Liljegren and Jake McCabe banged up and considered game-time decisions. That's in addition to Rielly’s ongoing suspension and Mark Giordano’s excused absence after the passing of his father this weekend.
“At this point, quite honestly, I don’t have any real sense of what our lineup is going to look like tomorrow," Keefe said after practice Sunday morning.
Will the shorthanded Leafs be able to beat the Blues twice in one week? Maybe. But Toronto is far too unpredictable defensively to make a team bet for this afternoon's game.
Thus, I’m looking toward the offensive side of the board, and one that sticks out to me is William Nylander’s shot prop.
The star winger’s prop market is sitting at 3.5, a number Nylander has gone Over in 11 of his past 19 contests. He’s sixth in the NHL with 219 shots on goal, averaging 4.13 per game.
When it comes to the matchup, it works in Nylander’s favor as well. The Blues have struggled in their own end, giving up an average of 32.16 shots per game at 5-on-5, which should give Nylander ample opportunity to get the 4+ shots needed to go Over on the number.
My best bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 shots on goal (-130 at SIA)
Maple Leafs vs Blues same-game parlay
William Nylander anytime goal
Auston Matthews anytime goal
Leafs score first
For leg one of my same-game parlay, we’ll mirror my best bet with an anytime goal from Nylander. He’s scored in three straight games and has five goals in as many games, including a tally in last week’s Leafs-Blues matchup. I say the good times keep rolling today in St. Louis.
Next up, we’ll continue betting on the hot hand and go with an Auston Matthews anytime goal. He’s coming off back-to-back hat tricks and has scored at least once in seven of his last nine games. It’s becoming one of the best bets on the betting board and is almost a nightly cash.
For my final leg, let’s keep with the theme of the Leafs offense and take them to score first. Toronto has opened the scoring 30 out of 53 times this season (56%), while the Blues have allowed the first goal in 53% of their games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Blues moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs are favorites at -155, with the Blues entering as +125 home dogs. The Leafs beat St. Louis last week 4-1 on home ice with Rielly, Marner, and Tavares absent. Additionally, it appears the Leafs blue line could be even more shorthanded. I’d wait until we get a better idea of what the Leafs blue line looks like to place a moneyline or spread wager.
The total is set at 6.5 goals, shading towards the Under at -115, while the Over is -105. The Over is 12-7-1 combined between the two clubs over their last 10 games each.
However, like with the moneyline, I won't be placing a wager on the total until I get a better understanding of who is playing today. If one or both of McCabe and Liljegren suit up, the Leafs can keep the Blues offense at bay. However, if they miss and Marshal Rifai and Max Lajoie are playing heavy minutes, I’d lean toward the Over.
Maple Leafs vs Blues betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs have hit the third period Game Total Under in five of their last six games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Blues.
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Maple Leafs vs Blues game info
| Location: | Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Monday, February 19, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Midwest, Sportsnet Ontario |
Maple Leafs vs Blues latest injuries
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