Night three of the Stanley Cup Playoffs features four games on the betting slate, including Game 2 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Boston Bruins.
It’s a near must-win for the Leafs, and they’ll need a big night from their top scorer if they want to head back Toronto with a split.
Read my Maple Leafs vs Bruins predictions below to find out why my NHL picks are backing Auston Matthews in tonight's contest.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins prediction
My best bet
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer (-115 at SIA)
My analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to even up the series tonight against the Boston Bruins — a near-mandatory win if they want to make it through the first round for just the second time in 20 years.
Despite losing Saturday night, underlying numbers suggest the Leafs outplayed Boston by quite a bit, winning 55% of the total minutes. However, the Leafs couldn’t behave themselves and the B's scored twice on the man advantage.
Aside from staying in line, the key to victory is to actually score. The Leafs generated 4.54 expected goals but only had one tally to show for it. One goal isn’t going to cut it in this league, and nobody buries the biscuit quite like Auston Matthews does.
The league's leading goal scorer was held off the score sheet Saturday night, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying. He registered five shots with seven individual scoring chances in the game and was on the ice for 2.55 expected goals, out-chancing the Bruins 18-5.
He also came inches away from scoring when he hit iron with a gaping cage early in the second period — something that simply can't happen if he wants to win.
Matthews has now gone three straight games without burying one, an uncommon occurrence, but going four in a row without a goal is even more rare. The Leafs sniper has been held scoreless in four straight games just twice this season, both stretches coming back in November.
The Leafs will need Matthews to find his scoring touch tonight if they want to stand a chance in this series, and I believe AM34 will deliver.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins same-game parlay (SGP)
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer
Leafs to score first
Leafs Over 2.5 goals
The first goal of the game will be crucial for the Leafs, and I expect them to start out hot again, but this time, find the back of the net first. Toronto scored first in 58% of its games this season.
For my final leg, I like the Leafs to go Over their team total of 2.5 goals. Toronto boasted the league's best road offense this year, averaging 3.59 goals per game. Plus, Toronto generated a lot of quality chances on Saturday night with 4.54 expected goals. Tonight, it'll convert more on those chances.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins odds
Maple Leafs vs Bruins live odds
Maple Leafs vs Bruins opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto +1.5 (-225) | Boston -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Toronto +115 | Boston -140
- Over/Under: Over 6.0 (+100) | Under 6.0 (-120)
Maple Leafs vs Bruins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Maple Leafs come into tonight as the road dogs at +115, with the Bruins getting -135 odds as home favorites.
- Boston has cashed on the moneyline in eight straight meetings against the Leafs.
- The total for tonight’s game is set at 5.5 goals, with the Over favored at -120, while the Under is paying even money.
- The Total is an even split of 5-5 to the Over in the last 10 meetings between the two teams.
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Maple Leafs vs Bruins trend
The Maple Leafs have hit the third-period moneyline in four of their last six road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Bruins.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Monday, 4-22-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Maple Leafs vs Bruins latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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