We’ve got 11 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including an All-Canadian clash between the Calgary Flames and the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The NHL odds like Toronto to break their losing streak tonight, but in order for that to happen, I think it’ll take a big night from William Nylander offensively.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this Thursday, January 18 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Flames odds
Maple Leafs vs Flames predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Calgary Flames will close out their in-season series tonight at the Scotiabank Saddledome.
The Leafs won the first game 5-4 between these two clubs thanks to a marvelous performance from William Nylander, who finished the night with three points, including the game-winning goal in overtime.
Fast forward to the present, and both teams are currently heading in opposite directions. The Leafs have dropped four in a row where they’ve blown a lead in each of their losses. Meanwhile, the Flames have won four in a row, outscoring their opponents 18-8.
That said, the underlying numbers suggest the Flames have not been 10 goals better than their opponent. In fact, Natural Stat Trick suggests that Calgary’s 5-on-5 expected goal differential has been a wretched 42% at 5-on-5, relying on spectacular .935 goaltending to win these games while giving up over 31 shots a night on average.
This should bode well for Toronto, which ranks as the league's seventh-highest volume shooting team, averaging 33.1 shots per game. Thus, I think targeting a Maple Leafs shot prop could be the best play for tonight’s game.
Enter Nylander, who sits fourth in the NHL in shots on goal this season, averaging 4.38 shots per game.
Yes, Nylander has been snake-bitten offensively lately, as he’s in the midst of a four-game pointless skid. The good thing is that his poor puck luck has not stopped him from shooting the puck at will.
The William Nylander odds on his shot prop total is set at 3.5 tonight, and he’s surpassed this total in all four games in which he’s been held pointless and has gone Over the total in eight of his last nine games overall.
The Leafs superstar has had a lot of success against Calgary throughout his career. Nylander is currently riding an eight-game point streak when facing the Flames, including a matchup earlier this year where he scored twice on seven shots on net.
Additionally, the Leafs held a team meeting Wednesday afternoon about the blown leads and poor play of late. A kick in the pants typically gets Nylander going, so hopefully he’s even more motivated to take over games and put pucks on net, helping us reach the 4+ shots we need to cash the Over tonight.
My best bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 shots on goal (-145 at SIA)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Maple Leafs vs Flames same-game parlay
William Nylander anytime goal
Under 8.5
Maple Leafs to score first
For Leg 1 of my same-game parlay, let’s go with an anytime goal from Nylander since his shot prop can’t be included.
The Calgary-born Maple Leafs forward’s luck will turn eventually. He’s gone five games without a goal and has registered 21 straight shots on goal without one hitting the back of the net. For a 14% shooter over the last four years, he’s due to score soon. I say he does it tonight against a team he scored two goals on in the November meeting and has four goals against in the last three games between these two teams.
Next up, I like the Under on the alternate total of 8.5 goals. The Leafs have not had a total go Over this number in nine straight games as the team struggles to get secondary scoring and has been putting an emphasis on defense and details. Moreover, the Flames have had eight or fewer goals scored in eight of their last 10 games. I’m banking on less than nine goals tonight.
For my final leg, let’s roll with the Leafs to score first. They’ve been the first to score in five straight games and have done so in 57% of their games this season. Meanwhile, the Flames are -9 in first period goal differential while giving up the first tally in 54% of their games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Welcome to Sports Interaction 2.0
Looking to bet on some NHL action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors, with a brand-new platform featuring same-game parlays, increased prop markets, and more!
Maple Leafs vs Flames moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs come into tonight as -125 favorites, with the Calgary Flames entering as +105 underdogs.
The Leafs have won four of the last five games between these two teams. However, the Leafs have played a lot of hockey lately, and fatigue looks to be settling in with the group. Toronto is about to play in its fifth game in eight nights, and the Flames are playing with confidence right now, winning four in a row.
The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 6.5 goals, with the favored side being the Over at -120, while the Under is offering even money at +100 odds.
Both teams have gone Under the total in back-to-back games heading into this one, but have hit the Over in 52% of their games combined this year.
Maple Leafs vs Flames betting trend to know
The Toronto Maple Leafs are 12-30 against the spread this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Flames.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Maple Leafs vs Flames game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB |
| Date: | Thursday, January 18, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN4, Sportsnet West |
Maple Leafs vs Flames latest injuries
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
