It took double overtime for the Edmonton Oilers to put away the Dallas Stars in Game 1 on Thursday, and the two clubs hit the ice at American Airlines Center for Game 2 on May 25.
Edmonton superstar Connor McDavid had a huge night in the series opener, and my top NHL picks and Oilers vs. Stars predictions for Game 2 are calling from Dallas emerging star Wyatt Johnson to return the favor Saturday.
Oilers vs Stars prediction
My best bet
Wyatt Johnston Over 2.5 shots (-143 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
Dallas Stars forward Wyatt Johnston only converted two of his seven attempts into shots during Game 1. He entered the contest with 45 shots and 99 attempts through the first 13 postseason games, so only converting 28.6% is a huge dip in efficiency.
Additionally, Johnston has traded at a 3.5 shot total multiple times during the playoffs, and he leads Dallas forwards in ice time per game (21:06). I value the decreased number to clear, in addition to Stars head coach Peter DeBoer’s willingness to throw his lines in a blender to create better on-ice opportunities for his best players to succeed.
Johnston jumped the boards with captain Jamie Benn and Logan Stankoven to conclude Game 1, and the trio had much more success than when Johnston and Stankoven were playing with Jason Robertson. Johnston, Robertson, and Stankoven only generated three shot attempts across 7:46 at five-on-five for a 21.4 Corsi For percentage, while the Benn-Robertson switch lead to Johnston, Stankoven, and Benn posting 11 attempts and a 50.0 CF% at 5-on-5 across 8:01 of ice time.
I expect the Johnston-Benn-Stankoven line to stick for Game 2, and they’ve been solid this postseason with a respectable 50.0 CF% and 57.1% shot share at 5-on-5 across 75:36 of shared time, in addition to posting 54.3% and 58.9% marks across 226:39 during the regular season.
The eye test also showcased the Stars being a little too cute in the offensive zone to start Game 1, and it showed up statistically, with Dallas registering just four shots on eight attempts during the opening period. I anticipate the Stars simplifying their game with an added emphasis on putting pucks on net to challenge Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner.
Oilers vs Stars same-game parlay (SGP)
Stars moneyline
Stars Over 2.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals in first period
Dallas has lost three consecutive Game 1s and even dropped to an 0-2 deficit in Round 1 against the Vegas Golden Knights, so I’m not anticipating any panic from the Stars. Additionally, as noted, DeBoer has mixed and matched his lines all season to create favorable on-ice matchups and/or slow down the opposition.
Still, I was impressed with the Edmonton defense, and I’m not expecting there to be oodles of high-danger scoring chances in Game 2. The two teams combined for just 22 HDCF and 5.7 expected goals during regulation Thursday, and just five HDCF and 1.34 xGF during the first period. Expect another slow start on Saturday.
Finally, Edmonton received a gem in goal from Skinner in the opener, and I don’t expect him to hold up game in, game out. He’s posted a .909 save percentage across 109 appearances over the past two regular seasons, so look for him to settle in between his .939 mark in Game 1 and .881 SV% across his prior 10 postseason starts.
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Oilers vs Stars odds
Oilers vs Stars live odds
Oilers vs Stars opening odds
- Puck line: Edmonton +1.5 (-220) | Dallas -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Edmonton +120 | Dallas -144
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (-102)
Oilers vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Stars moneyline has seen a move to -135 after opening at -130 at Sports Interaction, which is consistent with Pinnacle opening Dallas -129 and moving to -140 as of Friday afternoon.
- I don’t anticipate huge adjustments, either. Game 1 went to double overtime, and Dallas has proven capable of rebounding from a loss, while the goaltending and depth question marks surrounding the Oilers remain.
- This total opened at 6.0 at both Sports Interaction and Pinnacle, and the Under was hit hard enough to drop it to 5.5 with the Over carrying the higher vig at both shops.
- The potential for buyback on the Over is now in the cards.
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Oilers vs Stars trend
Johnston has three or more shots in eight of his past 13 playoff games. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Stars.
Oilers vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-25-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, CBC |
Oilers vs Stars latest injuries
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