The Eastern Conference Final has gone to overtime in three straight games, and now the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers enter a best-of-three at Madison Square Garden with the series knotted up 2-2.
In tonight's Panthers vs. Rangers predictions, I look at how fading the Mika Zibanejad player point market might be the best way to find plus-money odds in a game that is taking Under money and should be another low-scoring affair.
These are my best NHL picks for Thursday, May 30.
Panthers vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Mika Zibanejad Under 0.5 points (+136 at Pinnacle)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
New York Rangers fans' distrust for some of its star players is starting to get loud in a series the Florida Panthers have dominated. Chris Kreider is hearing it online for his series production as he's been held pointless.
But it’s his linemate, Mika Zibanejad, who is the player I’m betting to go without a point tonight. He is paying +136 for his Under 0.5 points compared to Kreider’s -104. He's the better value to take tonight in a game where the Under 5.5 has moved from -110 at the start of the series to -135 tonight.
Florida is a physical team that is wearing down the Rangers and dominating the possession game. That play has kept the Zibanejad line at bay all series. With fewer power-play opportunities expected the longer the series goes on, the lower the probability is of Zibanejad finding the scoresheet.
His pass one minute into overtime was the reason the Rangers took a penalty and lost Game 4, and the online warriors have let Zibanejad know about his lack of production in the series.
This line had a 28.6% expected goal share in Game 2 at home and I’d expected the Artemi Panarin line to get the majority of the offensive-zone faceoffs tonight, further hurting Zibanejad’s point possibilities. Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky also stopped 52 of 54 shots at MSG in Games 1 and 2, so he is comfortable on the road.
With the Under 5.5 taking money and getting steep from a tax point of view, Zibanejad’s Under points at solid plus money is the better route tonight.
Panthers vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Mika Zibanejad Under 0.5 points
Chris Kreider Under 0.5 points
Sam Bennett 2+ SOG
Alexis Lafreniere 2+ SOG
As I outlined in my Panthers vs. Rangers same-game parlay column, It's not a bad idea to fade the entire Zibanejad line for New York tonight as I'd be surprised if the home side hit the three-goal mark.
Kreider and Zibanejad on the Under is worth it at +320, but add in a couple of lowered SOG totals and this is an appetizing +750 SGP featuring Sam Bennett and Alexis Lafreniere, who will have big roles tonight and could see more minutes with few power plays expected.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Panthers vs Rangers odds
Panthers vs Rangers live odds
Panthers vs Rangers opening odds
- Puck line: Florida -1.5 (+230) | New York +1.5 (-271)
- Moneyline: Florida -115 | New York -102
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (+111) | Under 5.5 (-128)
Panthers vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Rangers closed at +104 in Game 1 and at -104 in Game 2. The total in each game of the series has closed at 5.5 but tonight's -128 Under 5.5 is the steepest the Under has been all series.
- The Panthers have dominated the series in terms of shot attempts, shots on goal, and expected goals. Through four games, Florida has a Corsi% of 59.7%, a shot percentage of 57%, and a 55.6% expected goal share.
- Igor Shesterkin has been the Rangers' best player in the playoffs with a .923 SV% in the series. He's seen 130 shots through four games. Sergei Bobrovsky hasn't been nearly as busy with a .848 SV% over the last two games, but he did stop 50 of 52 in New York in Games 1 and 2, including a 3-0 shutout in the opener.
- The Rangers' power play is just 1-for-11 so far in the series while Florida has five power-play goals over the last three games and is 5-for-15 in the series.
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Panthers vs Rangers trend
The Florida Panthers have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 102 games (+17.40 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Rangers.
Panthers vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-30-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Panthers vs Rangers latest injuries
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