NHL Picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be highly motivated in Buffalo tonight with a chance to clinch the division title with a win. After years of struggles against this underdog Buffalo Sabres squad, Toronto appears to have finally cracked the code on Buffalo going  2-0 against them this season and now looks for the series sweep tonight. However, despite the ups and downs over the years, there has been one Maple Leaf that has consistently dominated Buffalo, and that’s Mitch Marner. Buffalo is coming off a game in which they surrendered seven goals to the playoff-bound Tampa Bay Lightning. So, there should be ample opportunity for the Buds to muster up some offense and for Marner to find his way on the scoresheet.

Chicago has been the worst team in hockey over the past two months, ranking last in expected goals for percentage (xGF%). This ranking stems from its inability to generate high danger scoring chances and suppress them at the other end of the ice. Over that same stretch, the Blackhawks are last in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 27th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). The Senators outrank them in both categories. Ottawa will also have the goaltending advantage, with Anton Forsberg boasting a superior SV% and GAA over Spencer Knight. 

Chicago has been the worst team in hockey over the past two months, ranking last in expected goals for percentage (xGF%). This ranking stems from its inability to generate high danger scoring chances and suppress them at the other end of the ice. Over that same stretch, the Blackhawks are last in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 27th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). The Senators outrank them in both categories. Ottawa will also have the goaltending advantage, with Anton Forsberg boasting a superior SV% and GAA over Spencer Knight. 

There’s been a consistent uptick in shot volume from Batherson down the stretch, and he paces the Senators in both shots and attempts per 60 minutes through the past 12 games and recorded three or more seven times. The Blackhawks are also a layup matchup. Chicago is playing its second road game in consecutive nights and it’s also Game 82 with nothing on the line. Of course, the Blackhawks also allow the third-most shots per game and rank 32nd in Corsi For percentage at five-on-five, so Batherson is set to have plenty of shooting opportunities again tonight.

Nylander has three or more shots in 47 of 80 games this season, and he’s frequently traded with a 3.5 shots total over the past three years. He’s second on the Maple Leafs in shots and attempts per 60 minutes, and he’s also a go-to shooter with the man advantage (10.88 shots and 25.46 attempts per 60). There’s nothing scary about the Buffalo defense, either. The Sabres are middle of the pack with a 49.7 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five and allow the 11th-most shots per game (28.9). Of course, Nylander also ranks in the 98th percentile of forwards in shots on goal, so I think we’re landing a soft number.

Chicago has been the worst team in hockey over the past two months, ranking last in expected goals for percentage (xGF%). This ranking stems from its inability to generate high danger scoring chances and suppress them at the other end of the ice. Over that same stretch, the Blackhawks are last in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 27th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). The Senators outrank them in both categories. Ottawa will also have the goaltending advantage, with Anton Forsberg boasting a superior SV% and GAA over Spencer Knight. 

The Maple Leafs are rolling out a second line of John Tavares, William Nylander and Domi for a second consecutive game, and Domi picked up a pair of helpers Sunday against the Carolina Hurricanes. A date with the injury depleted Sabres is a much-softer matchup. Buffalo has treaded water down the stretch with a respectable 11-11-2 record, but they can’t keep the puck out of their net. The Sabres have allowed the fourth-most goals per game and fifth-most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five during the run.

With the Panthers firmly entrenched in their spot as the No. 3 seed in the Atlantic, they have nothing on the line tonight, and their lineup will reflect that. Look for Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and a high-powered Bolts offense to take advantage of the Panthers’ B squad.

Coronato has scored four times in his last five appearances dating back to April 5. The 22-year-old is playing with a ton of confidence right now, and if we look at the SOG, it makes sense why this bet is worth a look as well. Coronato has recorded four shots in three straight games and put up three against the Vegas Golden Knights earlier this month. He’ll be busy tonight and have lots of opportunities to score another goal.

On home ice, the Seattle Kraken have been decent all year, skating to an 18-17-5 record, but their opponent, the Los Angeles Kings, have been much worse on the road as opposed to playing at home. The Kings are 16-19-5 as the visitors and are only averaging 2.52 goals per game on the road. Joey Daccord is expected to get the nod for the Kraken tonight and he has been solid in his last 10 starts. In those games, he is 5-4-1 with a .908 SV% and a 2.70 GAA with a +6.0 goals saved above expected, he should be able to shut the door tonight. I’m not expecting much from the Kings tonight, they have nothing to play for and their entire focus should be Game 1 against the Edmonton Oilers.