The Ottawa Senators begin the new year on the West Coast as they kick off a five-game road trip vs. the West-leading Vancouver Canucks, who will head East after this game and begin a seven-game road trip of their own.
With a total creeping on 7.0 and Josh Norris moving up to the top line and power play, I'll be taking a look at his NHL player props after early bettors already sucked up the value on the Ottawa moneyline.
I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for the Senators vs. Canucks on January 2.
Senators vs Canucks odds
Senators vs Canucks predictions
The Vancouver Canucks might have the best point percentage in the West, but this is a team that has overachieved and since the middle of November has not been a Top 10 team at even strength.
They rank 24th with a 47.9% Corsi percentage at 5-on-5, have an expected GF% below 50%, and give up as many scoring chances as they create. Their 14% shooting percentage over that stretch easily paces the league and is a number that has to regress.
The Ottawa Senators will want to kick off this five-game road trip on the right foot, but I need better than +125 odds here. Vancouver closed as a -125 road favorite in the last meeting and Ottawa is still a very inconsistent team even with the coaching change. My buy point for Ottawa here is +130 or better, but bettors bought Ottawa early and moved this from +140 to as low as +120.
There is, however, value to be had in the prop market, and more specifically with Josh Norris who is centering the top line between Claude Giroux and Brady Tkachuk. He is also the drawman on the top power play.
Norris can be had at -110 for a point tonight and although the matchup vs. Vezina frontrunner Thatcher Demko might not be ideal, the Vancouver goalie has been off since December 23 and had allowed 11 goals over his previous three starts. Before the break, Norris had pointed in eight of his previous 10 games.
The Canucks' penalty kill is also ranking 24th over the last six weeks, so there's power-play appeal from this Ottawa offense in a game that projects to see some goals, with a 6.5 total that leans to the Over.
The Senators will be competitive Tuesday night and the top line should see plenty of opportunities vs. a Vancouver team that is anything but elite defensively at 5-on-5 and on the PK. Norris has a better than 50% chance of finding the score sheet with his opportunities.
My best bet: Josh Norris Over 0.5 points (-110 at SIA)
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Senators vs Canucks same-game parlay
Josh Norris anytime goal
Senators first period -0.5
Over 5.5
Norris is one of the Big 3 on the team in terms of goals/60 with Drake Batherson and Brady Tkachuk, who both have similar scoring rates. Norris also had a five-game scoring streak heading into the Christmas break.
I'm also looking for the visitors to come out strong after their last five-game road trip ended with a 0-5 straight up mark and their coach getting fired. I'm not getting greedy with the total and am happy with a 5.5 in a game that projects to have close to seven goals with the implied odds.
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Senators vs Canucks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Senators opened as long as +140 on the moneyline, with a total of 6.5 that has seen some Over money moving it from -125 to -135.
A few things are driving the Ottawa money: metrics aren't in Vancouver's favor, Ottawa’s new-coach bump, and a pair of schedules that might favor the Sens.
Vancouver leads the West in point percentage and is scoring the third most goals per game since November 1 in the league, but the shooting percentage is off the charts and it has the highest PDO in hockey — usually a good indicator of possible regression looming.
The Sens have also welcomed back big-minute defenseman Thomas Chabot after the rearguard missed most of November and December. He's moved to the top power-play unit and makes this team much deeper on the backend. Ottawa is playing for a new coach and has won three of Jaques Martin’s four games as the new bench boss.
"I am really pleased with the progress we have made," said Martin at Sunday's practice. "We have proven we can compete with the best teams. We just have to all be on the same page. My job when I came on was to get them to focus on the process, not really focus on the end result. I am a firm believer that if you play the right way, you have a better chance of winning."
The schedule might seem like a tough spot for Ottawa who has to play five road games in 10 days, but after its last five-game road trip ended 0-5 SU and got its previous coach canned, a strong start tonight is likely. Conversely, Vancouver will head out East for a seven-game road trip following tonight so the motivation factor leans towards the Sens.
Vancouver coach Rick Tocchet is the frontrunner for coach of the year but his team is coming off a lackluster defeat to the Flyers on Thursday, and motivating this group following the break might be an issue.
"We weren't invested," Tocchet said following the loss. "They came at us, and we didn't have any push. It's going to get harder and harder. This is a learning lesson, you know, we just got to be more invested. It's not even about the loss because there were some parts of our game that wasn't good obviously."
The market is moving towards the Sens but it’s tough to see this move any more than +120. I like the Sens, but Vancouver at -130 would be hard to pass up. I can’t see the line moving that much. I’m also not running out to pay 35 points on the Over 6.5 here either.
I prefer to play the Norris point and even some of Chabot’s props as his minutes will be up after getting a game under his belt. This is a guy who played 26 minutes after a multi-week absence in November.
Senators vs Canucks betting trend to know
The Ottawa Senators have hit the first-period moneyline in 42 of their last 77 games (+17.60 Units / 19% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Canucks.
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Senators vs Canucks game info
| Location: | Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 2, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNP |
Senators vs Canucks latest injuries
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