The Colorado Avalanche staved off elimination in Game 5 vs. the Dallas Stars and now return home tonight where they had the No.1 offense during the regular season but were held to just two total goals in Games 3 and 4 on home ice.
With the Colorado offense getting back on track, Alex Georgiev’s poor play flying under the radar, and both offenses able to make up from early deficits, my NHL pick is on the Over 6 with some books hitting 6.5.
Find out more below in my Stars vs. Avalanche predictions.
Stars vs Avalanche prediction
My best bet
Over 6 (-113 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Many were down on the Colorado Avalanche offense heading into Game 5 after putting up just two total goals at home in Games 3 and 4. However, in Colorado fashion, the offense thrived in a trailing mode and ended up with five goals on Wednesday which matched its total from Games 2 to 4 combined.
The probability of the Dallas Stars shutting down this Avs’ offense a third straight time at home is also low. Colorado paced the NHL at 4.20 goals per game on home ice during the regular season and it’s also an offense that has been able to erase Dallas leads as it showed in Game 1 and in Game 5.
Dallas can also find the back of the net tonight which is great for the Over 6 (-113) while some books are at 6.5. The Stars rank first in expected goals/60 at all strengths in the second round of the playoffs and face Alex Georgiev who has not been great in the playoffs and specifically in this series.
Over the five games, the Colorado netminder has a .880 save percentage and has posted a SV% of .900 or better just once in the series at .905. Of the 19 playoff goalies who have played at least three games, Goergiev ranks 16th of 19 in goals saved above expected/60.
There is also the possibility of the Stars getting extra empty-net opportunities with Colorado facing elimination. Either way, I see more paths for the Over/push than I do with the Under tonight. The Stars are still running five D-men and the longer the series goes the more that blueline should tire which also benefits the Colorado offense.
Let’s get some goals in the thin air tonight where games averaged 6.91 total goals per game during the regular season. The Avs have hit the Under 6 just once so far across 10 playoff games.
Stars vs Avalanche same-game parlay (SGP)
Jamie Benn Over 0.5 points
Over 5.5
Artturi Lehkonen Over 0.5 points
Jamie Benn is a beast playing on the top power play and the new first line which should help him point tonight as his linemate, Wyatt Johnston, is on a Conn Smythe run. That was the team's best line at even strength in Game 5.
Both offenses can score 2+ goals or even 3+ goals and the early game script is not that important as both teams have shown they can score in bunches if needed, especially late. Artturi Lehkonen is playing all his shifts with Nathan MacKinnon and with Big Val out, he has taken on a bigger shooting role on the top line and on PP1.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Stars vs Avalanche odds
Stars vs Avalanche live odds
Stars vs Avalanche opening odds
- Puck line: Dallas +1.5 (-245) | Colorado -1.5 (+200)
- Moneyline: Dallas +100 | Colorado -120
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+105) | Under 6.5 (-125)
Stars vs Avalanche moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a little move towards the Avs on the ML after the team closed as a pick 'em in Game 4 but that was also without Val Nichushkin (out) and Devon Toews (in).
- Injuries are starting to play a factor as the Avs will be without Nichushkin for a third straight game while the Stars could be without Roope Hintz who missed Game 5 with a wrist injury. Dallas' Tyler Seguin seems to be good to go after exiting Wednesday's Game 5.
- With the Hintz injury, the Stars have shaken up the lines with the Wyatt Johnston/Jamie Benn/Logan Stankoven getting the most 5-on-5 minutes in Game 5.
- Nathan MacKinnon has gone a perfect 5-0 to the Under on his 4.5 SOG prop in the series and 2-8 O/U in the playoffs. His price is starting to adjust to the volume and he's -140 for the Under 45 heading into tonight.
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Stars vs Avalanche trend
The Colorado Avalanche have hit the 1P Game Total Over in 46 of their last 66 games (+22.10 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs Avalanche.
Stars vs Avalanche game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Friday, 5-17-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Stars vs Avalanche latest injuries
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