MLB Picks

There is a lot of wind at Great American Ballpark today, with 15-mph winds blowing out to left field, but Cincinnati Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball through three starts and can work his way around the gusts vs. the Seattle Mariners. The lefty has gone 18+ outs in each of his starts and hasn't needed to throw more than 87 pitches. He has given up just 12 hits over those 18+ innings and could miss more bats than usual vs. Seattle. The Mariners are bad vs. left-handed pitching, striking out at a 30% clip on the season and ranking 22nd in wRC+ and 24th in wOBA. It might not be a good setting to pitch, but Lodolo is going to miss some bats today and continue getting deep into games.

Jesus Luzardo has 25 strikeouts in 18 innings through three starts, and tonight's outing against the Giants presents another opportunity for the left-hander to flex his muscles. The Giants are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the league this season. They average the fourth-most Ks per game at 9.63, including 10.80 on the road. Additionally, San Francisco can't hit a lick vs. southpaws, batting .194 against LHP this season.

Cleveland and Baltimore both enter Tuesday's tilt after an off day, which means the bullpens will be rested. The Guardians have the Orioles outgunned there, ranking fourth by ERA (2.25) vs. 12th (3.58). Cleveland also has the starting pitching battle won on paper with Logan Allen going against Charlie Morton. Allen was roughed up by the red-hot Padres in his first start since last August but bounced back vs. the feeble White Sox. The O's enter this one ranked 16th by OPS overall, and that falls to 24th when just facing lefties like Allen. Morton is looking every bit his 41 years at 0-3 with an 8.38 ERA. The Guardians' offense won't "wow" anyone, but this unit will do just enough to reward underdog backers.

Veteran righty Charlie Morton showed some signs of decline a year ago with a career-worst .402 expected slugging and his second-worst season in terms of strikeouts, and while those punchies have come a bit more frequently in 2025, it’s not enough to make up for his disastrous .285 expected batting average and .540 xSLG. On top of that, he’s had some serious issues with control, walking 12.1% of the batters he’s faced. His ineffectiveness will be enough to give the Guardians the edge.

Michael Wacha will take the mound for the Royals, and he primarily deploys a two-pitch arsenal, with the fastball and changeup making up 70% of his offerings this season. That number was even higher a year ago. Yankees first baseman Paul Goldschmidt ranks second on the team in hard-hit rate and batting average against the fastball. Against the changeup, he ranks first in batting average and third in hard-hit rate.

The Rays now rank third in the majors in batting average, and I’m wagering on their offense to get after Walker Buehler in tonight’s rematch and cash the Over on a 4.5-run team total. This might sound like an overreaction to the fireworks last night, but while that power surge isn’t sustainable, it’s not as if the Rays had been struggling to put runs on the board before that. They scored 18 runs in the weekend series against the Braves, and nine Tampa Bay players have already logged double-digit hits this year, led by Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero. The Rays are averaging 5.23 runs per game at home in 2025, the eighth-best mark in the league.

Baltimore plates a run in the first inning 53.3% of the time — the highest rate in the majors. Cleveland is sixth in the metric with a 40% rate and with the wind blowing towards the outfield at 18 mph today, we could see plenty of runs. The Orioles have surprisingly struggled at the dish this year, slugging just .383. Considering that they were third in the majors in slugging percentage (.435) last year and have an xSLG of .449 this season, positive regression is on the horizon. Meanwhile, negative regression is likely for Cleveland starter Logan Allen who pitched to a 5.73 ERA last season and has an xERA of 5.41 this year. The O's will send struggling 41-year-old Charlie Morton to the hill. Morton has been rocked in all three of his starts this season, posting an ERA of 8.74, and opponents have slashed .273/.467/.546 against him in the opening frame. 

Kevin Gausman is coming off a vintage performance where his signature splitter was dancing, helping him shut out the Red Sox over eight innings giving up four hits and striking out 10. I like Gausman to keep racking up the Ks tonight. The Braves still aren't putting up greta at bats ranking 19th in batting average and OPS, and 20th in wRC+. On top of that, they have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the MLB, getting punched out 25.2% of the time. Give me Guasman to have another goor night when it comes to strikeouts. 

Kevin Gausman has an out total of 18.5, which is a good indicator that he is going to see a lot of batters. He was great in his last start, but the Atlanta Braves have a 10% walk rate on the year and will flirt with this Over. At a projected coin flip, the +130 odds are a good expected value. Over his last two seasons, Gausman has walked 111 batters across 366 innings of work. Add in a tough matchup, and that's an easy path to see around two walks over 18+ outs. His 2.9 BB/9 rate at home since 2023 is also bigger than it is on the road. The Toronto Blue Jays did not get much from Easton Lucas last night, so Gausman is expected to eat some innings. Considering he has allowed just nine hits in 19+ innings this season, Atlanta might need to take a patient approach at the dish tonight.

The Braves have been surprisingly poor at the dish this season, ranking 24th in runs per game (3.56). With Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna sidelined by injuries, they'll have a tough time scoring today in Toronto. The Jays have three-time All-Star Kevin Gausman on the hill and he has a 2.33 ERA with a 0.62 WHIP through three starts. The Jays are 19th in the majors in runs per game (3.94) and have scored a run in the first inning just 29.4% of the time. They'll struggle against Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach. Schwellenbach had an impressive rookie season last year and has been even better this year, posting a 0.45 ERA with a 0.65 WHIP through 20 innings. He has a sizzling 1.12 ERA with an OBA of .113 in the first inning in his career. 

Jeffrey Springs never threw more than 87 pitches last year in just 33 innings of work thanks to injuries, and the last time he threw 100+ pitches — before his most recent outing — was June 24, 2022. Well, the Athletics have been riding him hard out of the gates, and he tosses 103 pitches in his last outing over six frames. He has an easy matchup today, but that is a lot of work for a guy who has never had a full workload, and I'm hitting the Under on 16.5 outs at plus money. There are also 18-mph winds blowing out to left-center field, which won't help the flyball pitcher. He's walked seven batters and given up 15 hits over 15 innings and is a big risk to get shortleashed today or have lesser stuff. Just two starts ago, he needed 82 pitches for nine outs. I love this play. There is a 17.5 at DraftKings, but the 16.5 at plus money looks like the better route.

Michael Busch has gone yard in three straight and in the beginning stages of cashing in on his second-year breakout with a .403 wOBA and .310 ISO to start the campaign. He’s had success against right-handed arms dating back to 2024 with a solid .354 wOBA and .220 ISO, and San Diego starter Randy Vasquez is ripe for statistical correction. The righty has surrendered a healthy .311 batting average and .374 wOBA to left-handed hitters during his career, but a lucky start has him limiting opposing hitters to a .159 BABIP despite surrendering a 92.5 contact percentage to pitches inside the strike zone. The unsustainable stretch is also reaffirmed by his 1.72 ERA landing miles below his 6.32 xFIP through his first three starts.

Shota Imanaga might not have the frame to maintain his velocity deep into games, but he's brilliant in the early going. In his career, Imanaga has pitched to a 2.45 ERA with an OBA of .125 in the first inning. Today, he heads to pitcher-friendly Petco Park to face a Padres lineup that hits significantly worse against southpaws like Imanaga. Last year the Friars led the majors in batting average against right-handed pitchers but were just 19th in BA against lefties (.239). This season they have an MLB-best .298 batting average against righties but hit .256 versus southpaws. The Cubs lead the majors with 6.32 runs per game but plate a run in the opening inning just 21% of the time — the seventh-lowest number. With Seiya Suzuki currently sidelined the top of Chicago's lineup has holes and Padres starter Randy Vasquez has a 1.72 ERA with an OBA of .143 in three starts.

San Diego right-hander Nick Pivetta has had a tough time against the Cubs, surrendering a .311/.362/.573 slash line throughout 74 at-bats. Meanwhile, southpaw Matthew Boyd has looked sharp early on for Chicago, posting a 1.59 ERA over 17 innings — including five strikeouts over six scoreless frames against the Friars on April 5. Take the Cubs to get the best of the Padres in this series finale at Petco.