NBA Picks

DeMar DeRozan may be on a new team, but that doesn't mean Erik Spoelstra will just allow him to operate freely in the mid-range. We've seen it in the past against the Miami Heat with DeRozan: when he gets into the lane, the Heat defense will aggressively help and collapse to try to stop his mid-range jumper. This has always led to increased potential assists for DeRozan against Spoelstra and the Heat. The thing I really like about this prop is that while DeRozan has been playing heavy minutes for the Kings, if we drop his projected minutes to his lowest output of the season at 33 minutes, we still have an edge on this price. DeRozan is projected for 4.7 assists on Monday, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -205.

With Taylor Hendricks out and Lauri Markkanen now listed as doubtful, the interior of the Utah Jazz's defense is much softer, and Zach LaVine will have a much easier time finishing at the rim. Not only will there be fewer shot blockers at the rim when LaVine breaks down the defense, but the point-of-attack defense on the Jazz is horrific. Collin Sexton, Keyonte George, and Jordan Clarkson can all score the basketball, but in terms of defense, good luck if you're the Jazz. The size and athleticism of LaVine is going to be a problem, and he is projected to go Over his points prop, which is trading at 20.5 (-125). LaVine is projected to score 23.1 points on Monday, which means we can price the Over 20.5 at -155, but it's available at bet365 at -125.

New York may be taking the bulk of its shots from the mid-range, but it leads the league in 3-point shooting heading into this one with well over 40% of its looks falling and is coming off a blowout win over the Detroit Pistons where it cashed in on 47.4% of its looks from the arc. Making matters worse, the Knicks have made a quick charge up the rebounding leaderboard after getting off to a poor start against the Boston Celtics, collecting 52% of available boards in their last four games to push into the top 10 and pass the Rockets, who sit in 11th place. I expect big things out of this offense, but New York’s defense could look out-matched by Alperun Sengun and a strong Rockets frontcourt on defense. It’s been one of the worst sides in the league at defending the rim, and Houston has been peppering its bigs this season with the eight-highest rate of shots in the league coming at the rim.

Brandon Ingram was off to a hot start even before the injuries started piling up, and he’s in a great spot to cash the Over on this prop while handling a sizeable workload. The New Orleans’ star forward is averaging 24.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists this season, and he’s hit the Over on his PRA line in each of his last two.

Daniel Gafford is playing just 18.8 minutes per game this season, but that’s all it’s taken for him to average 17.7 PRAs. He’ll simply need to be average against the Pacers tonight to cash the Over on this line. The Dallas big man has hit the Over on this prop in four of six games, and he’s in a phenomenal position to do so again. The Pacers recently lost Isaiah Jackson to a torn Achilles after James Wiseman suffered the same injury earlier. 

RJ Barrett led the way in Toronto’s overtime victory against the Sacramento Kings on Saturday, a night after dropping 33 points on the Los Angeles Lakers, and I’m grabbing these odds for another dominant performance. It’s partly a volume play too. Barrett has piled up 21 or more field attempts in three of his four outings this season, and that trend should continue at Ball Arena, with the visitors short on consistent scorers. While Jakob Poeltl, Davion Mitchell, and Ochai Agbaji are valuable connectors, it’s going to come down to Barrett and Gradey Dick to kickstart the Toronto offense. Barrett’s 3-point shooting could make or break this pick, but he’s gone 10-for-20 from downtown in his last three contests. The Denver Nuggets perimeter defense has been sloppy through the first six games, and more minutes for Russell Westbrook (in Murray’s absence) won’t help matters.

The Raptors allow the most points per game to opponents this season, which makes this a favorable matchup for Christian Braun. Braun is averaging 14.5 points and 2.0 assists per game in Year 3, taking advantage of his new role as a starter and his monster bump in playing time to 35 minutes per night. He’s hit the Over on this line in four of six matchups, including Saturday’s win over Utah.

With Tyus Jones in the lineup for the Phoenix Suns this season, the assist numbers are down for Kevin Durant, but with this total sitting at 3.5 (+115) on Monday, how can you not hit the button? There are certain numbers on certain players that you just have to play, and I think 3.5 (+115) for Durant to have four dimes is one of those spots. The one thing you worry about when the Philadelphia 76ers travel to The Valley is a potential blowout, but Paul George is expected to play on Monday. This could lead to George guarding Durant, which would force more passes to his teammates, who should be able to easily finish shots against other defenders on the 76ers. Durant is projected for 4.2 dimes on Monday, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -140.

It’s hard to imagine a much better beginning to the season for the Phoenix Suns, who have a 5-1 record and are undefeated at home to start the year. Devin Booker (26.7 ppg) and Kevin Durant (25.8 ppg) are both healthy and playing well, putting up big numbers while playing less than 40 minutes per game. The Philadelphia 76ers need improvement on both sides of the ball, and while Paul George will help, he’s not going to instantly turn around a team that ranks 30th in field-goal percentage allowed (49.6%), 26th in scoring (107.2 ppg), and 29th in rebounding rate (46.9%).

The Spurs could be the get-right game for the Clippers, as L.A. has reeled off seven straight wins against San Antonio, also going 5-2 ATS over that span. There are only five teams that put up fewer points than the Kawhi-less Clippers, and the Spurs are one of them, posting just 105.2 points per game. The Spurs play at a Bottom-5 pace, so it’s no surprise only one opponent has been able to score more than 106 points against them.