NBA Picks

The lottery-bound 76ers have pretty much stopped caring about wins and have shut down their entire starting lineup along with a few key reserves. The 76ers allow threes at the sixth-highest rate in the NBA and are second-last in opponent 3PT% (37.9%). They've been even worse lately, allowing opponents to shoot 41.1% from deep over the last month. They'll be torched on the perimeter by Young who leads Atlanta with 24.1 ppg and has been red-hot. Young has drained more than 2.5 threes in 10 of his last 13 games and is shooting 41.6% from the arc over that span. That includes a March 23 clash against Philly where he went 4-6 from deep.

The head-to-head matchups have been heavily one-sided, but the games have been high-scoring for the most part. Milwaukee and Detroit have hit the Over in seven of their last 10 head-to-head contests, including each of the last two. Over the last 10 games, both offenses have played well. The Bucks rank eighth in offensive rating at 120.3, and the Pistons rank 15th at 118.

Unlike Atlanta, the 76ers don’t play at a fast pace. However, they're notably bad defensively, and those problems have only exacerbated themselves as the roster has gotten thinner. Philadelphia probably isn’t proud of the 115.7 ppg allowed for the season, but that number continues to rise, with the Sixers allowing 117.3 ppg over the past 10 contests. As the scoring numbers continue to rise on both sides of this matchup, it becomes harder to imagine that it’s even possible for these teams to play a low-scoring affair against each other. 

Following the trade of Zach LaVine, guards Coby White and Josh Giddey have emerged as the Bulls highest-usage players. Since the start of March, White has hit the 25-point plateau in 14 of 19 games while averaging 27.8 ppg over that span. White is coming off a poor shooting performance against the Heat on Wednesday but he's poised to bounce back tonight at home against last-place Washington. The Wizards play at the fourth-fastest pace in the league and rank just 28th in defensive rating. They are second-last in ppg allowed (120.5) and have multiple starters on the IR. They've especially struggled to contain opposing guards and will get lit up by White tonight. 

Anthony Edwards is having another marvelous season for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are set to compete in the Play-In Tournament. The guard is averaging 27.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.6 assists while shooting 39% from three-point land. For April, Edwards is averaging 31 ppg in four appearances. On top of that, Ant already plays well against the Brooklyn Nets, having scored 28 versus them earlier in the campaign. Even if they were healthy, I’d still lock in this bet. Edwards is a cold-blooded scorer, and he should put on another show. He’s also averaging 29.6 points on back-to-backs.

Friday's Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets clash boasts two interim Head Coaches with plenty on the line. The loser could end up in the Play-In tourney and drop their season H2H series, which means competitive hoops in the Mile High City. Memphis is 21-18-0 ATS as the away team and 8-6-0 ATS on zero nights rest. The Grizzlies will be without top perimeter defender Jaylen Wells, but they have enough offensive firepower to score against a Denver squad that's dropped four of five and 17-22-1 ATS at home. 

There's a ton of volatility in betting these types of meaningless games at this point in the season. The Thunder have clinched the No. 1 seed and have ruled out all five starters as well as top backups Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace tonight due to "injuries" (wink, wink). That makes the Jazz a tempting plus money play on the moneyline. Sure the Jazz are tanking and have shut down their top-two scorers along with center Walker Kessler. But even with management seemingly trying to lose their last game (coach Will Hardy benched their best remaining player Collin Sexton in the fourth quarter), they beat a short-handed Blazers team in OT. Utah's lineup is filled with young players that are fighting to earn more playing time and get contracts. While management might not want them to win, they're going to give a good effort.

The LA Clippers are riding a five-game winning streak and look for a season series sweep over the Sacramento Kings on Friday. A loss could drop LA from the top six seeds and force the Clips into the NBA Play-In tourney. LA easily covered the first two meetings but struggled against this Sacramento lineup featuring Zach LaVine. Sacramento recorded two massive away upsets in their last five and is trying to hold off Dallas for the home court in their likely play-in. I like the Kings SU, but I'll take the points.

Murray is listed as questionable with a back injury that has sidelined him the last three games. That said, his player props are available and could be ripe for betting the Under given that he could be limited in his return after missing the last week. Even before the injury, Murray had scored fewer than 13.5 points in six of his previous nine games and he's averaging 12.5 ppg on the season. He also has a tough matchup tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers who play at a slower pace and rank third in the league in defensive rating.

Season-long trends favor a high-scoring game. The Clippers are 25-21-1 to the Over as favorites and 12-7 to the Over as road favorites. The Kings have hit the Over in nine of 14 against Pacific Division opponents and in seven of nine as the home underdog. The Kings can finish no better than the No. 9 seed, but they’ll still be motivated to win this one to keep that seed and avoid falling to No. 10. Winning one against the Clippers after dropping three straight to them in the season series should add some extra incentive. The Clippers are in the thick of the Western Conference playoff hunt, and each win is vital. I expect both teams to play their best basketball tonight, and that should mean plenty of scoring in a matchup with no shortage of star power.

Warriors point forward Draymond Green is typically the main facilitator when it matters for Golden State, and I expect him to take on that role Friday night in the Moda Center. Green did that job well on Wednesday. He dropped eight dimes and handled most of the playmaking chores against the Spurs like he usually does whenever the Warriors need a bucket. I expect Green to accept a similar role tonight.