College Basketball Picks

Saturday’s CAA matchup between the Hofstra Pride and Campbell Fighting Camels should be a nail-biter. Hofstra committed an uncharacteristically high 16 turnovers, resulting in 17 Campbell points in last Saturday’s two-point home loss to Campbell. Otherwise, Hofstra likely routs Campbell without the miscues. Two outstanding CAA defenses are going at it Saturday, but I expect the Pride to be tidier with the rock than last time out, defend like the top-tier CAA defensive unit they are, and end the Fighting Camels' four-game winning streak.

While Johni Broome is Auburn's obvious choice for rebounds, his line is set at 11.5. That is a massive number, and he has missed six of his last ten games. Instead, I'm going to look for more value elsewhere on the roster. Backup guard Tahaad Pettiford is exactly where I am looking. He averages 1.8 rebounds per contest this season and 1.9 in conference play. However, his line is only set at 1.5, and he's surpassed that in five of his past six games.

Based on recent performances, this total may be a little higher than it should be. The Kansas Jayhawks have allowed 87 and 92 points in the last two games, respectively, and the Baylor Bears allowed 93 points in their last contest. However, the Jayhawks rank 40th in the country in scoring defense at 66.0 points per game and 11th in field goal percentage allowed at 38.3%. They also rank 18th in the nation in opponent floor percentage and fifth in defensive efficiency in KenPom rankings.

I also like the chances of North Carolina scoring with enough regularity in the halfcourt to stay alive. That's half the battle when facing the team ranked third in KenPom defensive efficiency. For all of the flaws of the inconsistent Tar Heels team, they have capable isolation scorers in the trio of RJ Davis, Ian Jackson, and Elliot Cadeau. This is vital against Duke, who is a tremendous defensive team overall but just average defensively in isolation situations, allowing right at the national average from a points-per-possession perspective. I'll take my chances that this trio can come up often enough to put out the fire of any large Duke run that gets this out of hand. Between the lapses of play that have increased over the last month for Duke and a direct route to scoring on the offensive end for North Carolina, I have enough confidence in the Heels to cover such a large spread.

Tarleton State sophomore guard Benjamin Bubu has struggled to reach his scoring average of 15.6 points over the last six games. However, he and his Texans teammates may find it easier to score against the Southern Utah Thunderbirds, who are allowing nearly 74 points per game. Of those points, 15 are a result of their own turnovers. Tarleton State capitalizes on opponent mistakes, averaging 19 points per game from turnovers, which should give the Texans a significant advantage to cover the spread.

The Wildcats rank dead last in the SEC during conference play in turnover defense and adjusted defensive efficiency, with opponents shooting a league-high 57.3% from inside the arc. Furthermore, the Wildcats will yet again be without starting point guard Lamont Butler, whose defense has been solid this season. Arkansas has posted the worst 2-pt% and 3-pt% marks in SEC play, but the Hogs don’t turn the ball over often. They should be able to find more success at the offensive end. Mark Pope has been outstanding at making second-half adjustments, but the Wildcats have been vulnerable prior to the intermission. This atmosphere will be highly charged, and I expect the tempo to be high as both teams feed off the energy in the building.