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Today's NCAAF Picks
Notre Dame
at
Penn State
at
Penn State
Pick - Total
at
o46.5 (-115)
Best Odds
o44.5
-115
o44.5
-115
Notre Dame gave up only one TFL against Georgia. QB Riley Leonard ran 13 times for 91 yards. These plays were not designed to blow up the scoreboard, but to keep ND from the mistakes Georgia would need to win. Yet, the Irish were downgraded by advanced metrics for that supposed offensive failure. That creates value for us. On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s insistence on passing the ball will either speed up the game and/or eventually find success. Both those scenarios will help push this game Over its modest total.
Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 5 days, 1 hrs, 38 min ago.
Notre Dame
at
Penn State
at
Penn State
Pick - Spread
Notre Dame -1.5 (-110)
The defenses will be the two best units on the field. One causes more chaos than the other. The Irish are +18 in turnover margin this season in 14 games; the Nits are +10 in 15 games. This is a rather even matchup. In a game this tight, look to the margins for the edge, and turnovers are the clearest piece of the margins. Irish QB Riley Leonard has not put the ball in jeopardy while under pressure in the Playoff, his turnover-worthy play rate at 1.6% across this season. Penn State QB Drew Allar averages an interception every 21 pass attempts in one-score games. Notre Dame’s net field position ranks No. 3 in the country, another example of excelling on the margins.
Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 5 days, 1 hrs, 40 min ago.
Ohio State
at
Texas
at
Texas
Pick - Spread
Texas +6.5 (-110)
This line isn't taking the full season into account. These teams rank first and second in the country when it comes to EPA margin this season. And if there's a team that can match the talent level of Ohio State, it’s Texas. If you like Ohio State, act now because I think that recency bias will kick in when the public bettors start wagering on this game, and I could see this spread closing at a full touchdown or more. I’m on Texas because I think this number has moved too far. I recommend waiting to see if it gets bigger as kickoff gets closer, but for these purposes give me the points with the underdog.
Andrew Caley - Pick Made 5 days, 18 hrs, 52 min ago.
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