College Football Picks

For the uninitiated. The Under is 46-12-1 (80%) in meetings between Service Academies dating back to 2005. That has cooled off a bit in the Army-Navy matchup recently, but the Unders should get back on track here. We've got one of the higher totals in this matchup in years, and Army's offense has been too inconsistent to be confident in America's Game going Over this season.

Army fields one of the AAC’s best defenses, allowing just 22.5 points per game, while Navy ranks sixth in the conference at 27.4 (ppg). Both stop units excel at controlling field position, limiting explosive plays, and forcing mistakes, which is exactly how Army-Navy games historically unfold.

In normal circumstances, Washington should win the Bucked Up LA Bowl with ease, but the quick turnaround of this bowl makes projections more uncertain. One might even wonder if Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch is entirely focused, given he has not-so-quietly been looking at other jobs the last few weeks. Regardless, Boise State’s offense should struggle against a Big Ten defense that played well in the season’s second half.

The No. 2 rushing defense in the country in terms of EPA per rush against, facing an offense that rushed for 20 yards on 13 carries, sacks adjusted, in the SEC title game. This could get ugly for Alabama’s offense. If looking for Friday night entertainment to start the Playoff, the Sooners’ defensive line may be your best hope. Oklahoma’s offense ranks No. 110 in the country in points per quality drive, not even averaging a field goal once into scoring territory.

The Rebels will want to get this game won, protect the star players, and get out of town. They'll also want to hold their best plays with a new coaching staff in anticipation of a game with Georgia.

That's why I'm expecting plenty of running with Kewan Lacy and company once they get a strong lead. Additionally, Tulane's passing game is going to struggle to find plays and points which is why the run game will be its focus. 

The increased focus on running the ball for both teams, especially for the Rebels as they look to simply get the job done and get out, will help lead this one under a total they didn't reach in the first meeting. 

Jon Sumrall said his team "better play a lot different than we played last time". But unless he's got a bunch of talent added over the next two weeks, it won't really matter.

Tulane's defense simply can't hang with teams in the trenches, and the Rebels have an explosive offense that ranks first in quality drive rate, seventh in EPA/dropback, and 39th in points per quality drive.

The Rebels have an elite pass defense and will give Tulane fits with their pass rush. Without the ability to put together consistent scoring drives, this game will get away from the Green Wave once again in an extremely hostile environment. 

James Madison struggled with Troy in the Sun Belt title game. And let’s be painfully clear: Troy’s offense is wretched, ranking No. 119 in the country in the regular season in expected points added (EPA) per offensive snap, per CFB-graphs.com. Yet while quarterback Goose Crowder was healthy, the Trojans made the Dukes miserable. Oregon should run this up early. James Madison may notch an opening-drive score, courtesy of the script, but after that, expect this game to be one-sided.