NFL Picks

Daniels is a highly efficient passer that finished the regular season sixth in the NFL in completion percentage (69%) and 11th in passer rating (100.1). He completed 24-of-35 passes for 268 yards against Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Round before throwing for 299 yards versus Detroit last week. He looked shaky against Philadelphia in their first meeting in Week 11 but was brilliant in the rematch, throwing for 258 yards in Week 16. If you omit Washington's meaningless Week 18 game when Daniels came out at halftime, he's thrown for more than 225 yards in six of his last seven games. And the one game during that span where he went below that number he played with a positive game script. With the Eagles installed as 6-point favorites, there's a good chance that Daniels will have a negative game script this week.

Jalen Hurts is dealing with an MCL strain that could keep him in the pocket and force him to throw more. Unfortunately, his downfield options might be limited with TE Dallas Goedert and WR A.J. Brown both hindered by lower body injuries. With the Commanders likely using top CB Marshon Lattimore to shadow Brown, DeVonta Smith should have an easier matchup against Noah Igbinoghene out wide or rookie Mike Sainristil in the slot. Smith was limited to 21 yards on four receptions last week, but that was due to heavy snow limiting downfield passing. We'll have clear skies and moderate 40-degree temps in Philly this Sunday, making it easier for Hurts to throw the ball. Prior to last week, Smith had racked up more than 50 receiving yards in four straight games and models are projecting between 53 and 63 yards for him this week.

The O/U for Saquon Barkley's rushing yards prop is the highest in history this week, but I can't fade him in this matchup. The Commanders surrendered 201 rushing yards in the Divisional Round and finished the regular season 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5) and 27th in defensive rush EPA. They are also dead-last in the league in average yards allowed before contact to running backs, and Barkley ranks first with 2.64 yards before contact. Sure, opposing defenses know the run is coming when they face the Eagles but that hasn't stopped Barkley all year. The superstar RB had 205 yards on 26 carries versus the Rams last week and rushed for more than 145 yards in both regular-season meetings against Washington. 

Daniels has thrown 29 touchdown passes across the season but we’ve seen his numbers steadily improve as he’s developed through this rookie year. Since Week 12, he’s scored two or more touchdowns in seven of eight games played.We’ve already seen in his short career that Daniels has the x-factor, he’s a special player who turns up for his team when it’s needed. How many times have we seen him pull off something special at the end of games? The team trusts Daniels, and he’ll put them on his back and try to get them over the line this Sunday.

Additionally, the Eagles QB hasn’t been the only quarterback to have success on the ground against the Commanders. New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones topped 30 yards in both meetings, while Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson rushed for 39 yards, and Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams finished with 47 rushing yards. Otherwise, the only true dual-threat signal caller Washington faced and held in check was limiting Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray to a single three-yard run in a 42-14 Commanders upset in Week 4 in which the Cards pulled away in the second quarter and never looked back. There’s definitely potential that Hurts is limited and playing at less than 100%, but with the season on the line, I expect him to be on the move – and especially with the potential for another two-week layoff ahead of Super Bowl LIX.

It’s easy to look at Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts as an anytime touchdown bet for the Philadelphia Eagles, but I’m going with wide receiver A.J. Brown. The top wideout was targeted seven times last week but only hauled in two catches in the wintry conditions. That included a few passes near the goal line that easily could've been converted into scores in optimal weather conditions. It's expected to be cold but sunny in Philadelphia on Sunday, and Brown scored in his final three games of the regular season. That included against the Commanders with eight catches on 15 targets. Look for Brown’s inner excellence to come out in the NFC Championship Game.

Zach Ertz was a Philadelphia Eagles legend, but he’ll be looking to help end his former team’s season on Sunday afternoon. The Washington Commanders tight end had seven touchdowns in the regular season -- his highest total since the 2018 season --and caught all five targets for 28 yards and a score last week in Detroit. Ertz started off the season slow with one touchdown in his first 10 games before a touchdown in Philadelphia in Week 11 started a three-game scoring streak with the TE now having a TD in six of his last nine contests overall. The Birds allowed both Rams tight ends (Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson) to catch touchdown passes last week to top it off.

Barkley’s huge rushing totals — both in the playoffs and against Washington — have been punctuated by long breakaway touchdowns, and this line seems to bake in at least one monster play. Make no mistake, Barkley is going to move the chains and cash in on the yards before contact that the Eagles’ offensive line provides, but the Commanders will surely dare Jalen Hurts to beat them with his arm. That means Barkley won’t see many light boxes on Sunday, and I’m zagging towards the Under.

The Eagles would no doubt love to ride Saquon Barkley and limit the playmaking burden on Hurts, and that makes the Under on 190.5 passing yards worth a look, especially in cold conditions against a solid Washington pass rush. Hurts has thrown for just 259 total yards across Philly’s first two playoff contests, so look for the hosts to lean on short throws rather than riskier dropbacks. The Commanders will settle for that, and they held up well against Jared Goff last weekend, snaring three interceptions.

The Eagles ran for more than 200 yards in both regular season meetings with the Commanders and, while I expect Washington to have a better game plan on Sunday, it’s hard to believe that discipline will last four quarters, particularly with Saquon Barkley involved early and often. The Eagles running back has been on a tear over the past four weeks, boasting a rush of at least 25 yards in five of his last nine contests. With the Philadelphia offensive line so skilled at creating running lanes, I like the Over on 24.5 yards for Barkley’s longest rush this weekend.

Washington's explosive offense and subpar defense were on full display last week as they upset the Lions 45-31. The Commanders allowed 521 yards in that game and they've surrendered a whopping 138.9 rushing yards per game. The Eagles run-heavy offense should be able to move the ball at will against Washington's soft stop unit. Philadelphia has an elite defense but Daniels is tough to gameplan against. When these teams faced off in Washington a month ago, Daniels led the Commanders to a 36-33 victory by rolling up 339 total yards with five touchdowns. The Eagles struggled to contain the Rams down the stretch last week when they employed a no-huddle offense. Washington plays a league-high 62% of its snaps out of no-huddle and should be able to keep Philadelphia's stop unit on its heels with that approach.  

Barkley is No. 1 in the NFL in yards gained before contact and went for two runs of 70+ yards last week against the Rams, who were 28th in yards allowed before contact. Well, guess what? The Washington Commanders defense ranks dead last in that stat. Giving Barkley room to hit the hole is begging him to hit a home run (or two), and he rushed for 146 and 150 yards in the first two matchups against Washington this season, with a long run of 39 yards and 68 yards in those games.

Ekeler is the No. 2 RB to Brian Robinson Jr., but he still plays between 40-50% of the offensive snaps and has topped this rushing total in six of his last eight games, including both postseason contests. Plus, the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 100+ rushing yards in five straight games and six of its last seven, with the Washington Commanders needing to run the ball to control time of possession and protect its defense from the explosive Philly offense.

The rookie has kept a clean sheet in the postseason but I think the Eagles get the best of him here.The Eagles present a much tougher defensive challenge and I expect Washington to go pass-heavy with limited touches. Fangio’s defense picked Daniels off three times in their past two meetings. Of all the opponents with tape on Daniels, the Eagles have the most. Projections leaning toward at least one INT as well.

Goedert was my TD bet last week against the Rams and I’m going back to the well. Washington’s defense is the softest Philly has faced in the postseason and they’ll sell out to stop the run in the red zone. Commanders allowed eight TDs to tight ends in the regular season and watched Lions TE Sam LaPorta score last weekend.

Have we forgotten how great Barkley is as a pass-catching RB? I know the Eagles are going to grind it out on the ground, but Washington is going to blitz a lot – fifth highest rate – and Hurts is going to have to get rid of the ball. Barkley had four catches for 24 yards receiving against that aggressive Rams pass rush, which was his biggest receiving day in almost a month. He had two catches for 52 yards vs. Washington in their first meeting. Projections all come in above this total with some close to 20 yards. So take the Over 12.5 yards and sprinkle a little on the alt-markets: 20+ is +175.

This is the third go-around, so both teams have a ton of tape on each other. Philadelphia's defense is a step up from Washington's postseason foes and the Eagles will be able to run the ball with ease and extend drives, slowing down the pace of the game. The Philly passing game leaves a lot to be desired and Washington’s blitz-happy defense will force Hurts to check down, which is something he’s not always great at doing. So much of the Commanders' offense is converting on third and fourth downs. They’re doing it at an insane rate. I believe that luck runs out.

Philadelphia and Washington split their two meetings, but the Commanders’ victory was a 36-33 win at home in Week 16, which was helped by Hurts leaving early with a concussion. Injury reports this week will play a role in later movement, but if healthy, the Eagles should be able to control pace and possession after rushing for totals of 211 yards and 228 against Washington’s defense. Philadelphia is also a huge step up in defensive competition for the Commanders, who have defeated suspect stop units from Tampa Bay and Detroit. The Eagles have been among the better defenses in the league in the second half of the schedule.

Not only has Mahomes not thrown an interception in the past three games, but he has also not thrown one since that Week 11 regular season matchup with these Bills. Both interceptions he threw in that contest were on deep passes, with both throws to “open” receivers – meaning they had at least three yards of separation at the time of the pass. Mahomes is not going to make those mistakes this time around. In his three playoff games with the Bills, he has a 75.2% completion percentage with eight touchdowns to no interceptions. I expect Mahomes to utilize that quick passing game again and stay out of the turnover column

MVP frontrunner Josh Allen scored a dozen rushing touchdowns during the regular season and scampered for two touchdowns in the Buffalo Bills' Divisional Round victory over Baltimore. The dual-threat superstar rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 30-21 home win over the Kansas City Chiefs in November, and he also scrambled for two TDs against Kansas City in last year's Divisional Round loss. Allen has rushed for seven touchdowns in a dozen playoff games, including having great success rushing the football against the Chiefs, and I’m betting on that continuing Sunday. 

Tight end Travis Kelce and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have quite the connection. Since 2018, the Chiefs’ dynamic duo have connected for 55 regular season scoring strikes. Kelce has also been on the receiving end on 19 postseason TD receptions, including one last Sunday against Houston. Kelce leads Kansas City in playoff targets (8), receptions (7), and two big plays of 20+, including a 49-yard grab against Houston. Meanwhile, the Bills allowed 23 passing TDs within 20 yards during the regular season. The Cincinnati grad is Mahomes main man and he's hauled in more receiving yards than any other tight end in NFL history. Back Kelce to snag at least one TD against Buffalo. 

The Bills’ offensive line is giving Allen opportunities to reach the second level, and he finished with 12 carries for 55 yards and a score in the Week 11 victory. The visitors will have to convert some short-yardage situations to finally outlast the Chiefs in the postseason, and there’s no one better than Allen in those key moments. I’m taking the Over on 9.5 rushing attempts at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Bills have ruled out safety Taylor Rapp and will turn to rookie Cole Bishop alongside Damar Hamlin. It’s asking a lot for that duo to hold up here, with Mahomes’ masterful ability to keep secondaries off balance. Those are matchups that I expect the Chiefs to go after selectively, and Xavier Worthy could be a big beneficiary on deep balls when Buffalo overcommits to slowing down Travis Kelce. Worthy has piled up 26 catches on 37 targets across his last four games, and he’s reached the 50-yard mark in two of his last three outings. He had 61 yards and a touchdown against the Bills earlier this season, and he stands out as an X-factor in this spot. 

Both teams have been playing conservatively with plenty of shorter passes and few explosive plays. Patrick Mahomes ranks 41st out of 43 qualifying QBs in average intended air yards (6.3) with the Chiefs using underneath plays to move the sticks and control the clock. Meanwhile, Buffalo's top WR is slot receiver Khalil Shakir who led the Bills with 821 receiving yards and is largely targeted on routes under 10 yards. The Bills have been leaning on their ground game and are fourth in the league in rushing play percentage (49.4%) with that number surging to 57.7% over their last three games. They'll have a tough time moving the ball that way against the Chiefs who held foes to 4.1 yards per carry during the regular season. The Chiefs mustered just 212 yards with 4.5 yards per play last week while the Bills were limited to 273 yards and 4.6 yards per play. Expect another methodical performance from these offenses. 

The Kansas City Chiefs rookie wide receiver has seen his usage (and production) drastically improve in the second half of the season, seeing more short/intermediate targets designed to get the ball in his hands so his speed can create big plays. Worthy also schematically poses problems for the Buffalo Bills defense and after registering 61 yards against them earlier in the year... is poised to have another big game in the AFC Championship.

The Buffalo Bills have leaned into the run game down the back stretch of the season but that hasn't resulted in more yards for Allen, as it's the Bills' running backs who have seen an increase in usage (and effectiveness) over their last seven games... while Allen has topped this number just twice in this span. After going for 55 yards earlier this season, while handing the Kansas City Chiefs their only loss so far, I expect K.C. to emphasize Allen's legs not being what beats them — making it even more unlikely he goes for 50+ yards, which he's done just five times all year.

Patrick Mahomes plays favorites, especially in big games. And outside of Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy was the only WR “worthy” of targets last week. He drew six, four coming in the red zone. He had success against this Bills defense in Week 11, catching 4 of 5 passes for 61 yards including a 10-yard TD catch.

Buffalo has been leaning into the run, especially early on. Cook drawing a lot of touches in the playoffs and faces a Kansas City defense that has been soft against the ground game. Gave up big yards to RBs recently, Mixon with 88, both Steelers RBs went Over 70 yards, Ford had 84 yards for the Browns. Cook's forecast for the AFC title game is as high as 69 yards. No better way to keep KC’s defense honest and stay out of third and long spots than running the ball.

Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves to bring pressure with the blitz while padding that chaos up front with man-to-man schemes in the backfield. Allen rates out Top 5 among all qualified QBs versus the blitz at PFF and boasts the third best passer rating versus man coverage. Unlike past years, when the Bills’ passing playbook depended on deep downfield looks, this current receiving corps has plenty of big capable pass catchers for quick short shots that then grind out yards after the catch (third highest YAC/completion). It’s an ideal foil to the Chiefs’ aggressiveness.

Kansas City has been pumping out the Under results in recent weeks, boasting a 1-6 Over/Under count in their last seven overall. In fact, the Under is 3-6 in the Chiefs’ last nine home postseason games. The Bills took a ground-centric approach against Baltimore in the Divisional Round, handing off more than 30 times to grind out possession and control the tempo. The Bills did the same in their Week 11 win over Kansas City. That game finished with 51 collective points and went Over a closing total of 47.5 O/U. Look-ahead lines have this game with a total of 47.5, and openers are hitting the board at 48.5 points. I'm grabbing the Under now, on the other side of the key number of 47 O/U.

The Bills quarterback has rushed for a touchdown in seven of his last nine starts and has found the endzone with his legs in four of his last five playoff appearances. That includes two touchdown runs in last year’s AFC Divisional Round defeat against these very Chiefs. He also rushed for a score in their regular season meeting last year. Buffalo’s dual-threat pivot also tends to look for plays with his legs in the playoffs more than in the regular season. Going back to the start of last year’s postseason, he’s averaging 9.5 rushing attempts per game — compared to just 6.45 attempts over the two regular seasons. The Bills don’t have the most explosive weapons in the passing game, meaning Allen’s going to have to do even more with his legs in this one. It’s also going to be brutally cold, which I expect will lead to more emphasis on the ground game.