NFL Picks

A once-vaunted defense has been bullied in loss to Philadelphia and Baltimore, giving up 54 points on more than 800 total yards allowed. What worse is that the Eagles and Ravens dragged the Steelers defense for a collective 72 minutes of on-field ass-waxing. Not only is that a ton of time logged by the Pittsburgh stop unit, but it came against the two most physical offenses in the NFL. That leaves the Steelers tenderized on another tight turnaround and now facing a methodical Chiefs offense, that slowly moves the chains with one of the most efficient attacks in the NFL. Kansas City is second in time of possession and runs the slowest tempo in the land. Much like bookies setting this spread below a field goal, I want to give the Steelers some respect at home. But I’m not convinced they can defeat the Chiefs, given the trajectory of these two teams and matchup on Xmas Day. I’ll take Kansas City on the moneyline.

Baltimore has surrendered the third-lowest EPA per play and lowest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks while allowing just 19.2 points per game since Week 11, and I don't think the defensive improvements are accounted for in this spread. Of course, the Ravens also pace the NFL in yards per play, dropback EPA per play and PFF offense grade while averaging the third-most points per game (30.1). Additionally, the Houston offensive line could struggle if the Texans have to take it to the air to keep pace with the Ravens. Houston ranks 22nd in PFF pass block grade and 25th in pass-block win rate.

Seattle isn’t mathematically eliminated from the postseason, and the Chicago defense hasn’t shown snarl in weeks. The Bears have allowed the third-highest EPA per play, highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks and 26.8 points per game during their nine-game losing streak, including 31.0 points per across their past five. Plus, even with the consecutive losses, the Seattle defense has shown up since the Week 10 bye. The Seahawks have surrendered the sixth-lowest EPA per play and YPA to opposing QBs while allowing 19.8 points per game. 

We find the Chargers on the other side of the country for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday, with the forecast in Foxborough calling for temperatures around freezing. New England, on the other hand, is home for the holidays after living on the road for the past two months. Saturday’s battle with the Bolts is just the fourth time the Patriots have played at Gillette Stadium since Week 6. Despite a 2-3-1 ATS record as a host, New England has kept those games close. Five of its six home games have been decided by six points or less. The Patriots put up a good fight against the Bills this weekend and ever since giving Drake Maye the keys, the offense has kept them competitive (5-3 ATS last eight games). The Chargers defense is coming apart at the seams, plummeting from No. 2 in EPA allowed per play in the first 10 weeks to 24^th in that advanced metric the past six contests.

Denver is starting to look like a team nobody wants to find on the other end of the bracket, holding up as one of the best defenses in the NFL but now putting up serious points in recent outings. The Broncos have scored a collective 266 points in their last five games and while those tallies have come against sub-par defenses, Denver takes on another porous stop unit in Cincinnati. The Bengals are an Over bettor's wet dream, with a 10-5 O/U count built on a bad, bad defense and an explosive downfield attack. That’s panned out to an average of 56 combined points per game. The extended forecast for Paycor Stadium looks good for Saturday, with game-time temperatures at a balmy 58 degrees and little to no wind to wreck those deep looks. Both the Broncos and Bengals rank among the Top 10 in "home run" passing plays of 20 yards or more.

Bookies continue to discount Denver or in this case overvalue Cincinnati. The Bengals are a bad football team yet have been priced as favorites in four straight outings. Skewing those power ratings is a lineup of broken opponents during the Bengals’ three-game winning streak. Cincy’s high-flying offense has taken advantage of Dallas, Tennessee, and Cleveland – three teams with backup QBs at the wheel and stop units that rank in the back half of the league. The Broncos are far from those foes. Denver is playing some of the best two-way football in the NFL right now, with a defense that’s rated among the elite and an offense really finding its way, jumping from 24^th in EPA per play in the opening 10 weeks to 13^th since Week 11. Those improvements will continue against a god-awful Cincinnati stop unit.

The Packers present the first true test for the Vikings since October and are also fighting for the No. 6 spot in the NFC pecking order. Green Bay lost a 31-29 thriller to the Vikes at Lambeau Field back in Week 4, keeping it close despite four turnovers. Jordan Love was responsible for three of those miscues but also passed for 389 yards and four touchdowns in what was his first game back from an early-season injury. Love has been incredibly sharp heading into the matchup with the Saints, keeping a clean sheet for INTs in the four games heading into Week 16 and rating as the top QB in the land in many advanced passing metrics since Week 11. Give the gift of warmth this holiday season, with a heated throw and the hottest QB getting points in Week 17.