NFL Picks

While Dart has shown promise at times, he also doesn’t have a lot of help. In 10 games played, he’s averaging just 155.6 passing yards per contest. He’s cashed the Under in three of his last four appearances as well. 

The Commanders are a strong matchup for any pass catcher, as their defense is one of six in the league allowing two or more passing touchdowns per game. The New York passing game should remain steady with Jaxson Dart, who’s coming into Week 15 with some extra rest. Theo Johnson has been one of Dart’s most reliable options. The rookie tied for the team lead with eight targets last week, accounting for 33 percent of Dart’s attempts. He also showed some frustration in the loss, which could translate into a motivated performance on Sunday. This is playable to +210.

Jack Bech was taken with the 58th pick in the draft after being a season-team All-Big 12 selection at TCU. The rookie didn't get many chances to contribute early in the season but had a career-high 82% snap share last week and finished with six receptions for 50 yards. Four of those receptions came in the fourth quarter after Kenny Pickett replaced an injured Geno Smith. It was clear that Bech has a rapport with the veteran QB and that should continue into this week with Pickett named the starter. We should also get a heavy passing game script from the Raiders on Sunday since they are 12.5-point underdogs against the Eagles.

I’m expecting the Eagles to show up on time Sunday afternoon and pull away from the Raiders. Las Vegas is turning to Kenny Pickett behind center for his first start of the season, and even with a three-game losing streak the Philly defense still ranks eighth in defensive DVOA and has allowed the ninth-fewest points per game. I also value this spread trading beneath the key number of 7.

Chicago is allowing the fifth-most yards per pass attempt on the NFL this season, and tight ends have had plenty of success against the Bears.

That's good news for Harold Fannin Jr, who racked up a career-high 40 routes run against the Titans and will be the primary tight end with the injury to David Njoku.

Fannin has been the first read for more than 25% of the pass plays where he's been on the field over the past three games, and Shedeur Sanders is going to look for him often given the issues with his offensive line.

The Bears have allowed 52+ yards to opposing tight ends in six of their last eight games, and Fannin will just be the next name on that list. 

Harold Fannin cashed for us last week at +300, and even after an 8/114/1 performance against the Titans, his touchdown price hasn’t moved much. He’s Shedeur Sanders’ favorite target, and the David Njoku injury is only increasing his involvement. Fannin might be the only TE/WR on this roster with red-zone looks from Sanders, and he’s scored in back-to-back weeks. A fair price here should be around +210 to +220.

Just a season removed from hauling in nine receiving touchdowns with a high-end 16.6 yards per reception and a 15.2 aDoT, Bateman has dipped to respective 12.1 and 12.9 marks with just two scores through 11 games in 2025. In turn, his receiving yards total has also dipped considerably, while his role remains steady as the No. 2 wide receiver for the Ravens. So, with the Bengals ranking 32nd in dropback success rate, 28th in PFF coverage grade and allowing the second-highest yards per target, I like Bateman to clear this total for a second consecutive week.

What a price against the Bengals, who have been the most generous defense to opposing tight ends by a wide margin. Last week, Dalton Kincaid and Jackson Hawes both scored in the snow, giving Cincinnati 14 and 15 tight end touchdowns allowed on the season. The next-closest team has allowed nine. Isaiah Likely saw three red-zone targets last week and put up 95 yards, plus what should have been a touchdown on Thanksgiving vs. the Bengals. I’m surprised this number is still north of +200, as I have the fair price closer to +170. Even Kincaid was +200 last week, coming off a lengthy injury.

Nico Collins is far and away the top wide receiver in Houston. He leads the Texans with 61 catches on 103 targets for 916 yards in 12 games, an average of 76.33 yards per contest.

Collins is coming off his third game of at least 100 receiving yards this season, racking up 121 yards on just four catches, including a long of 53. That’s now two straight games and five of his last six in which he’s had at least 75 receiving yards.

Arizona allows 224.3 passing yards per game, and Collins should get his fair share on Sunday afternoon.

The Over pass attempts for Jacoby Brissett has been the gift that keeps on giving. Brissett has thrown the ball at least 40 times in five-straight contests and is averaging 46.8 pass attempts per game over that span. The Cardinals have struggled to run the ball and have pretty much abandoned that part of their offense, with their passing play percentage sitting at an absurd 75% over the last four weeks. They are 9.5-point road dogs against the red-hot Texans on Sunday which makes it even more likely that they'll lean on their aerial attack after falling behind early.

A soft slate of rival QBs has concealed the Patriots' weakness to the pass but against above-average passers, the Patriots allowed two or more passing touchdowns to Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, Michael Penix Jr., and Allen in Week 5. Allen has record two or more touchdown passes in eight of his 13 games this season. Week 15 forecasts for Allen call for between 1.6 and 2.0 touchdown throws. Allen does his best work when the calendar flips to December, averaging more than 1.8 TD passes per December game over his career.

In his first game back from injury, Dalton Kincaid scored at +210 and finished with four catches on five targets, including one in the red zone. Buffalo’s tight ends were heavily involved against Cincinnati, catching 11 passes compared to nine from the wide receivers. With another week of work, Kincaid should see an increase from the 52 percent route share he had last game. He’s also off the injury report entirely, which is a strong indication he’s back to full health heading into a rematch with New England, where he posted six catches and over 100 yards in Week 5. This touchdown price should be under +200.

New York is coming of a 24-point loss at home to the Miami Dolphins, and should be even more outmatched on Sunday.

The Jets defense doesn't have a single interception through 13 games — the longest run without a pick to start a season in NFL history. While his numbers don't jump off the page, Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence is getting more comfortable in Liam Coen's offense and has improved his efficiency over the course of the year. Lawrence hasn't thrown a pick in his last two games and he ranks fourth among all QBs in success rate since Jacksonville's bye in Week 8. With the Jags 13-point home favorites on Sunday, he'll likely throw fewer passes and will be less likely to force the ball into tight coverage.

The Chiefs have been an Under team all year at 4-9 O/U, and will now feature in a game where both offenses have injury concerns and will be playing in frigid weather. 

Only two running backs had more red-zone carries last week than Omarion Hampton in his first game back, with five. He didn’t convert those attempts, but he did score on an eight-yard reception. This is a strong price for a lead back in a productive offense with the goal-line role. I’d play him to +120, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he took on even more work in his second game back from injury.

There are plenty of unknowns with this Indy offense, but all the wideouts are sitting at +450 or longer, which is hard to ignore whether it’s Riley Leonard or Philip Rivers starting. When Daniel Jones went down last week, Leonard stepped in and threw 10 of his 29 attempts to Michael Pittman. That’s serious volume. The matchup in Seattle isn’t ideal, but Leonard is expected to practice this week, and that level of target share paired with a +475 price is an easy play for me. Even Alec Pierce at +675 is appealing.

Shaheed starting to find his way in this Seahawks game plan after coming to Seattle at the trade deadline. He had his biggest receiving day against Atlanta last week, with four grabs on five catches for 67 yards but his results have been tempered by a schedule loaded with zone defenses – which is something the speedy Shaheed struggles against. Against Indy, however, he takes on man-centric schemes and his grades spike in one-on-one coverage. What’s more the Colts could be down both starting corners in Gardiner and Ward. With JSN drawing double, Shaheed is ripe to rip some backups for a TD in Week 15.

The Over has been a winner in five of the Titans past seven games.

I’m not suddenly buying into the Titans’ offense after one good week, but Tony Pollard at this price is hard to ignore. You’re getting a lead back coming off a 25-carry, 161-yard, two-touchdown performance at essentially a WR3/WR4 number. The 49ers may be coming off a bye, but this defense isn’t a top-10 unit and is still missing key pieces with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa out. Even if Tennessee only scores 14 points, I’d take Pollard at +300 or better, especially with his red-zone role. Any back projected for 15 touches should be shorter than +250.

Christian Watson has been one of the best touchdown producers in football over the last four weeks with five total TDs, and the Denver matchup is keeping this number above two dollars in Week 15. The Green Bay receiver room isn’t the mess it used to be. Watson and Romeo Doubs are handling most of the routes, with Jayden Reed rotating in for 3-WR sets. If Watson ever opened in the +130 to +140 range in a good matchup, it wouldn’t surprise me, so this could be the best price we see for a while. He’s already cashed at +175 and +200 in consecutive weeks.

The Broncos' 11-2 SU mark is built on owning the trenches with the offensive and defensive lines among the best in the business. Denver is one of only three teams that rank Top 10 in every OL/DL win rate metric at ESPN (pass rush, pass block, run stop, run block). Keeping the Packers’ pass rush at bay and slamming the door on Green Bay’s run-heavy sets is the key to keeping the Broncos’ 10-game winning streak alive – or at least covering as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 15.

Tyler Shough scrambled for 55 yards on seven carries last week but 34 of those yards came on a single run. The rookie QB had been held below 20 rushing yards in four of his previous five starts and his previous career-high was a 22-yard game against Atlanta. He also didn't run much in college and on Sunday he faces a Carolina defense that contains quarterbacks on the ground. The Panthers have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (10.2) and the second-fewest yards per rush attempt (2.8) to opposing QBs. They are dead-last in the league in pressure rate so they rarely flush quarterbacks out of the pocket. 

Bettors may have forgotten how much Chuba Hubbard’s usage jumped before the bye. He went over 100 total yards for the first time all season in Week 13 against the Rams and scored his first touchdown since Week 8. He logged 17 carries to Rico Dowdle’s 18 and added two receptions. Dowdle is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry across his last four games on 61 attempts and may be trending toward a 1B role in what could be a run-heavy matchup with the Saints. There shouldn’t be a 100-point difference between the two Carolina backs in touchdown pricing. If Hubbard is in line for 15-plus touches, he should be closer to +140.

Puka Nacua isn't at the record-setting pace he was at earlier this season but the Rams have been using him more on deep routes. The superstar WR has hauled in a reception of at least 30 yards in each of his last three games. He should torch a Lions defense that that has surrendered the second-most explosive pass plays (47) in the NFL. Detroit's secondary will be even worse down the stretch with both starting safeties and cornerback Terrion Arnold sidelined by injuries.

The Lions have surrendered at least 30 points in back-to-back games. Their defense started the season strong but has regressed, ranking 27th in the league in dropback EPA since the beginning of November. Detroit's secondary has been decimated by injuries to Pro Bowl safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, and corner Terrion Arnold.  The Rams lead the league in EPA/play and success rate with MVP favorite Matthew Stafford at the helm. With Stafford slinging the ball to a loaded WR corps, the Rams have dropped 34+ points in five of their last seven games.

This point spread has dropped to Dallas -5.5 at most books, but FanDuel is still giving the Vikings at +6.5 – offering a half-point hook on the other side of the key number for a little extra vig. Minnesota proved it’s still playing for something in last weekend’s squash of the Washington Commanders, putting forth perhaps its most complete football game of the entire season. Dallas has some injuries on the offense and this Vikings defense has returned to form with a disruptive pass rush. Minnesota is a Top 10 D in EPA since Week 9 and this spread feels too big considering how bad the Cowboys defense can be.

Aaron Jones is +155, but I'd rather have Jordan Mason, who had 11 carries last week and got the red-zone role vs. Washington. He finished that game with five carries inside the 20-yard line, which tied for the third most by any RB in Week 14. Jones has also been dealing with injuries and inefficiency, which might open the door for more work for Mason. If JJ McCarthy can build on his Week 14 performance, Minnesota could flirt with 24 points in Dallas, where everyone scores. Mason will have a big role on Sunday night for an offense that wants to run the ball. 

Betting the Over on Tua Tagovailoa’s interception prop sets up well this week, and the cold-weather angle is very real. Tua is 1-8 in games with kickoff temperatures of 46°F or colder, with Miami averaging just 16.4 points. It’ll be around 20 degrees in Pittsburgh on Monday night. In sub-40 games, he’s thrown eight TDs and nine INTs, with his completion rate dropping from 68% to 58% and yards per attempt falling from 8.2 to 6.1. Miami’s run-heavy approach may not hold if De’Von Achane remains limited or the game script forces more passing. Deep shots are risky for him, as he ranks 28th in deep-ball accuracy and sits second in interceptable passes. If Miami throws more, a turnover is very live.

The Dolphins have been running the ball well of late, but De'Von Achane’s rib injury is concerning and his practice reps are in question. If I’m pivoting on an offense that has scored over 100 points across its last four wins, I’m taking the first read in the passing game at a fair +200. Waddle has six touchdowns this season and has gone more than one game without a score only once. He even saw a 21-yard rushing attempt last week and could take on more ground work if Achane sits, especially in a cold-weather game where moving the ball could be tougher. He’s their second-best weapon and could become the focal point if Achane is out.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.