MLB Picks

Alcantara fanned seven Pittsburgh Pirates across 4 2/3 frames in his 2025 debut, but he’ll face a much tougher lineup Tuesday night. The Mets posted a middling 22.7 K% last season against right-handed pitchers, and they’ve packed some punch to start the 2025 campaign. New York has a solid .329 wOBA and .241 ISO against righties despite an unsustainably low .197 BABIP. Plus, Alcantara also issued four free passes and threw 91 pitches Opening Day, so I’m far from convinced he’s all the way back from his 2023 Tommy John Surgery.

The Arizona Diamondbacks managed to win the Corbin Burnes sweepstakes this past offseason, adding to their already talented rotation. The right-hander is one of the best in the game and he proved just that in 2024, compiling a 15-9 record and 2.92 ERA in 32 starts, striking out 181 in 194 1/3 innings of work. Burnes has always been a strikeout pitcher. He’s averaged 10.6 Ks per nine innings in his big league career and even led the National League in strikeouts in 2022 when he was with the Milwaukee Brewers, compiling 243. When it comes to facing the hard-hitting New York Yankees, Burnes posted a 2.45 ERA against them last year. More importantly, he struck out 15 batters in 11 innings. The California native has struck out Aaron Judge three times in just seven at-bats, Paul Goldschmidt 11 times, Cody Bellinger on four occasions, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. four times.

Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte has yet to go yard in 2025, but he cracked 18 of his 25 bombs last season against righties and has a tasty matchup tonight. Yankees righty Will Warren makes his season debut tonight. He served up two bombs per nine frames in 2024 and picked up right where he left off this spring by allowing five HRs across 23 innings.

Hitters have blasted 135 bombs across 3,988 career ABs against Nats starter Trevor Williams, and 45 of those were on the road against righties, and that bodes well for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to go deep tonight. If Guerrero doesn’t launch one against Williams, Nationals relievers have already surrendered four bombs across 13 2/3 frames. 

Chad Patrick will make his first MLB start today but did pitch 22 pitches on Saturday in a relief role. However, he had been stretched out in the spring, going around 80 pitches. If we can get him to go through the order twice and around 60 pitches, he could give up some runs. This is not a great pitcher to begin with and is only getting the start because of injuries to the rotation. He had a 5.45 ERA in the minors two years ago and also gave up five earned runs over eight innings in the spring. He also gave up two hits and a walk in his one inning Saturday, which included a home run to the light-hitting Oswaldo Peraza. The Milwaukee Brewers are also desperate for starter innings with how things have gone so far, with several injuries combined with ineffectiveness exposing their lack of rotation depth already. If Patrick goes four innings, this could be a breeze but this can cash with a shorter outing, too. There are a lot of outs.

Wesneski struck out 14 batters across 9 2/3 innings this spring and sports a respectable 8.67 K/9 and 23.0 K% across 190 career frames in the bigs. He faces a weak San Francisco offense Tuesday, too. The Giants ranked 25th with a .299 wOBA against righties last year, and they’re sporting a .297 mark alongside the fifth-highest strikeouts percentage (28.1%) to start 2025. 

Houston has scored just eight runs in its first four games of the season, averaging 8.25 strikeouts per game. Webb isn’t an overpowering pitcher, but he’s capable of getting a handful of strikeouts. He collected five in his first start and finished with 172 Ks through 204.2 IP last year. The right-hander racked up 5+ Ks in 20 of 33 starts last season, including five punchouts in six innings against the Astros.

Houston starter Hayden Wesneski is not a long-leashed pitcher. He was a starter last year but was moved to a long-relief role. He never recorded more than 10 outs in the spring and recently got hit with a comebacker and had to leave his last start early. THE BAT is projecting 74 pitches and 13.1 outs from the home-side starter. His Under 1.5 walks allowed market was hit this morning but is still a buy at +125 or better, so I'm pivoting to his Under 3.5 hits allowed at +132 at bet365, which still is +EV. He allowed less than a hit per inning in the spring and had just 82 hits allowed over 89 innings last year. The Giants get on base at one of the lowest rates to begin the year and the bottom of the order is easy to navigate. I'm hoping for two times through the order. 

The Tigers tucked in at the plate last night on the way to 18 hits. That production was due after the visitors outhit the Dodgers in two of their three matchups last week. In a very small sample size, this Tigers lineup also has a solid record against Logan Gilbert, including Riley Greene’s 3-for-6 mark. Then there’s Detroit starter Casey Mize, who finished with a 4.49 ERA last season and was left off the team’s ALDS roster. This feels like a nice spot for the Mariners’ underwhelming lineup to cash in as the righty heads to the mound for the first time this year. Three of the Tigers’ four contests this season have served up 5+ runs through the first five innings, and the visitors have cashed in full-game Over in six straight contests dating back to last year.

Severino fired six scoreless with six punchouts against the Seattle Mariners to open the season, but that start was on the highway at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, and the Mariners had the highest strikeout percentage against righties in the majors last year. The Cubs put 18 on the board in Monday’s series opener, and Sutter Health Park has the look of a launching pad. Plus, Chicago has been patient at the dish and sports an 11.8 BB% against righties this year after finishing third in baseball with a 9.7% mark in 2024. 

While A's righty Luis Severino had a good season opener at Seattle, he still served up four barrels with a 35.7% hard-hit rate. Severino has allowed more HRs across the last two seasons (46) than his previous three campaigns combined (14). Kyle Tucker already has three home runs to kick off his Cubs tenure and is in an ideal matchup here with Sevy.

Chris Sale went just 15 outs in his first start and threw 84 pitches. He gave up three runs and struck out seven. It was a mixed bag for the lefty, who now has to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road today, and getting through six innings might not be in the cards. The first thing I like here is that Brian Snitker is not afraid to shorten his outing even with the lead as Sale exited his first start after five innings with the Atlanta Braves up 4-3. Next are the conditions. Dodger Stadium has 20+ mph winds blowing out to right field. He has pretty even splits vs lefties and righties, so any extra help for the LHHs is welcomed on this prop. Finally, it's just a tough matchup. The Padres strung six hits and a walk against Sale, and now the Dodgers will make him sweat. The Covers projection has him going 16.8 outs, and expecting Sale — with his injury history — to go 90+ pitches is a tough ask while facing the best lineup in baseball this early in the season.

Chris Sale tossed six innings of one-run baseball against the Dodgers last season, holding this current lineup to a .219 average. Only Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are hitting over .300 against him. As for Dustin May, he’s a bit of a wild card because the righty hasn’t pitched since 2023 due to injury. It's hard to know what version of him we’ll get in his season debut, but May did have a respectable 2.63 ERA in 2023. Honestly, I don’t think it matters who throws against the Braves right now. They’re 29th in the big leagues with a mere 1.6 runs scored per game. This offense is struggling immensely and has managed to smack just 4.4 hits per contest.