NBA Picks

Malik Monk returned to Sacramento's lineup on Thursday after missing the previous three games with an illness. The guard was limited to 17 minutes off the bench but still scored 16 points. Expect more minutes for Monk in his second game back, which means less playing time for Keon Ellis. Ellis had stepped into the starting lineup in Monk's absence and had double-digits in points in all three games that Monk missed. However, Ellis had scored more than 9.5 points just twice in his previous seven games. And one of the games where he went Over that number during that span came when Zach LaVine sat out. The Kings will be at close to full strength tonight which means fewer shots for Ellis. With Sacramento also on the road against the Magic who allow a league-low 106.0 ppg, fade Ellis on his points.

Paolo Banchero has been singlehandedly carrying Orlando’s offense recently as he’s averaged 30.5 points per game in March, accounting for over 28% of his team’s offense. The power forward comes into Saturday’s contest with five straight 30-point performances under his belt and can put up another big number against a struggling Kings squad.

The Philadelphia 76ers’ skeleton crew lineup will once again be led by end-of-season breakout star Quentin Grimes, who has been a complete stud after getting traded to Philly for Caleb Martin and half of a ham sandwich. Since joining the Sixers, he’s averaged a healthy 22.1 points, five rebounds and 4.3 assists across 21 games. Over the last seven games, the Miami Heat have surrendered 24.1 points, 5.7 rebounds and seven assists to guards, good for 36.8 PRA. Miami’s defense has been an above-average unit this season, but this isn’t a matchup to avoid. Grimes is doing it all for the Sixers and, in the midst of a breakout, I’ll be on him to stay hot.

The 76ers entire rotation is currently sidelined by injuries. That's provided an opportunity for them to give more burn to fringe players and see what they can do. One of those players is Justin Edwards who has thrived in a bigger offensive role. Edwards has scored at least 18 points in six-straight games and is coming off a 19-point performance against Washington. The wing is averaging 20.3 points and 15.6 FGA per game over that span and is shooting lights out from deep. The rookie wasn't selected in the 2024 draft but don't forget that he was considered one of the top prospects in the country coming out of high school just two years ago. Edwards is a highly-talented player who should score against a Heat team that is thin on the wing with Andrew Wiggins and Duncan Robinson ruled out.

Spencer Dinwiddie is coming off a poor performance against the Magic where he had four assists and four turnovers in 25 minutes. Prior to that contest, Dinwiddie had dropped 7+ dimes in five straight games, averaging 9.0 apg during that span. He goes from playing against an extremely slow-paced, defensive-oriented Magic squad to facing the Bulls who play at fast pace and struggle on defense. Chicago is 24th in the league in defensive rating while ranking 28th in assists per game allowed (28.9). Since Kyrie Irving suffered a season-ending injury on March 3, Dinwiddie has stepped into the starting lineup for the Mavs and has seen his playing time surge. He has logged at least 35 minutes in seven of his last nine games and as long as he gets anywhere near that tonight, he should eclipse his assists total.

Obviously, the Lakers’ last-second loss to the Bulls was atrocious and Josh Giddey will likely be haunting Lakers fans' dreams for weeks, but it’s slightly surprising to see the Grizzlies favored by 2.5 points, even at home. Between how they’ve played lately and Taylor Jenkins being fired, it’s hard to have confidence. Although Memphis has been one of the better teams ATS this season, the Grizzlies have been backsliding for weeks. Since February 12, Memphis is just 8-12, which ultimately led to Jenkins being relieved of his duties, and they’ve been as bad as it gets ATS at 3-17.