NBA Picks

Over the past two games, Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham has struggled from downtown. Cunningham is a 37% long-range shooter who hasn’t cleared that mark in four of his last five. He still launches roughly seven per game, and if he attempts that many on Monday, he’ll clear his three-point shooting prop. The Cleveland Cavaliers rank last across its last five at defending the arc, and I expect Cunningham to let it rip from downtown against the Cavs.

Cade Cunningham is having the season of his life, enjoying career-highs across the board in Year 4. The top pick in the 2021 NBA Draft is averaging 24.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 9.4 assists, good for 40.8 PRAs. He’s posted at least 43 PRAs in 20 of 41 games this season. For as good as he’s been on the season as a whole, he’s been even better over the last three weeks. Cunningham has averaged 43.4 PRAs across his last 11 games, hitting the Over on this line seven times in that span. He’s reached that mark in three straight, and I expect him to extend that streak tonight against a Cleveland Cavaliers defense that has been anything but elite over its last 10 games. Over the last 10, Cleveland sports a defensive rating of 120.4 — second-worst in the NBA. Cleveland has allowed the third-most points to opponents and the sixth-most assists in that span, making this a favorable matchup for Cunningham.

The Lakers have not yet filled Anthony Davis’s wish to find a center. He is still starting there. His defensive prowess still reigns there, no matter how much he doesn’t enjoy it. And as much success as Hornets forward Mark Williams has had of late — six of 10 games over this points prop since his minutes finally reached 30+ on Dec. 30 — that should be stifled against Davis. Particularly without Brandon Miller available for Charlotte, Davis’s defensive assignment should be singularly focused on Williams, and Davis needs to keep Los Angeles winning to keep the pressure on the front office.

Charlotte is just 28th in points per game (107.5) and 27th in offensive rating (109) and taking its second-leading scorer out of the equation is killing an already lacking offense. The Hornets are last in the league in field-goal percentage (43.1%) and this Lakers defense is holding opponents to a respectable 112.7 PPG. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have the Lakers ranked 13th in offensive rating (114.1), eighth in field-goal percentage (47.5%), and sixth in free throws per game (18.1), further cementing tonight's mismatch.

Houston Rockets guard Fred VanVleet has been lighting it up from downtown recently, but I expect him to cool off when he and the Rockets meet the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. The Celtics allow the lowest three-point shooting percentage in the league when at home (28%). VanVleet has been hot, but the Celtics' length on the perimeter and their suffocating defense at home have me betting the veteran guard will struggle to light Boston up from behind the arc.

Given all the drama in Miami, I’m taking the Orlando moneyline here and banking on the visitors’ defense — still allowing the second-fewest points per game despite all the injuries — to set the tone and limit the hosts’ 3-point attack. Jalen Suggs (questionable) would be the obvious choice for the Tyler Herro assignment, but the Magic have plenty of other options to pester perimeter scorers without sacrificing anything on the boards.

Alperen Sengun is having a very solid campaign for the dark-horse Rockets. He’s formed a dynamic partnership with Jalen Green, averaging 19.3 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. The big man is having his best month in January, averaging 20.4 PPG in 12 contests and he’s cashed the Over in points in six of his last eight. Sengun dropped 26 on the Cavs over the weekend and has cleared 20 points in six of his last nine. 

Even when Zion Williamson is in the lineup, the Pelicans are not a good rebounding team. In the last month, they rank No. 18 in offensive rebounding percentage, tracking down just 28.9% of their misses, and No. 29 in defensive rebounding, finding only 66.4% of opponents’ misses. Williamson in the lineup does not help enough. Raptors wing Scottie Barnes is one of the best rebounding perimeter players in the NBA, finding 8.1 per game this season and 8.6 in the last month. He has snagged at least nine boards in seven of his last 13 games, including two of his last three.

Two of the top offenses in the NBA will be on display in this matchup. The New York Knicks rank second in the league in offensive rating (119.3), with the Memphis Grizzlies not far behind in fifth (117.9). That’s underselling how much Memphis can score, however. The Grizzlies play at the fastest pace in the NBA, which has led them to average a blistering 123.7 ppg this year, more than even the vaunted Cleveland Cavaliers offense (122.0 ppg). These teams have both trended to the Over this season, and recent results haven’t changed my perspective. The Knicks are coming off a 143-point performance against the Sacramento Kings, and the Grizzlies have hit the Over in six of their last eight games. I see those trends continuing tonight, so I’m taking the Over.

This is quite a large spread for a visiting team, but the Denver Nuggets have been red hot, and the Chicago Bulls… have not. Chicago has dropped two of its last 10 and covered in just three of those. Denver had trouble covering the spread early in the season, but the Nuggets have covered in eight of the last 10 to improve their ATS record to 23-21-1 overall. The Bulls have covered in just 21 of 46 games. Over the last 10 games, Denver has been particularly effective on both ends of the court. In that span, the Nuggets have the second-best point differential at +10.3 and the 11th-best defensive rating. In that same span, the Bulls rank 25th in point differential at -5.7, while the Bulls sport the ninth-worst defensive rating.

Someone on the Hawks will still need to shoot the ball without Trae Young and Jalen Johnson available and De’Andre Hunter questionable with an illness. Looking at usage rates in the last month, the most likely candidate is Dyson Daniels, ending 19.1% of possessions when he is on the court and someone capable of creating his own shot, certainly more than Bogdan Bogdanovic, with an 18.6% usage rate. A third-year guard who has started every game this season, Daniels is averaging 14.8 points in the last month, all while in lineups with Young, Johnson and Hunter. His 13.3 shots per game could near 20 tonight, simply given the vacuum of proven scorers available for Atlanta.

While Dallas has won three straight in this head-to-head, including a 137-101 pounding on December 5, it hasn’t had much separation in its wins without Luka Doncic. In their five Luka-less wins, the Mavericks have only been able to win by double digits once: a 118-97 win over the Lakers on Jan 7. The other four games have seen an average margin of victory of 7.3 points. The Wizards are also 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 against Dallas.