NBA Picks

Banchero cleared this prop in three of his last four games and in seven of his last 14. On a normal night, this would be in line with expectations. But the presumed offensive struggles in the Play-In Tournament elevate those expectations, as do Banchero’s abilities in more meaningful games. While he reached nine or more rebounds in only two of his seven playoff games last year, he snagged 16 in Game 7, he reached eight boards in two more of those first-round tests, and he has improved as a rebounder this year. He snagged 7.5 boards per game this season compared to 6.9 a year ago, increased his per 36 minutes average by 0.8 rebounds and jumped his total rebounding rate to 12.5% from 11.6%.

Banchero relies on a bounty of trips to the free throw line for scoring, hitting 6.1 free throws per game to help him average 25.9 points. A playoff whistle may diminish those chances. Secondly, if doubting the full-game total of 217, then it should be trusted no one will score more than 30 points. Lastly, Orlando’s bread-and-butter is its defense. The Magic defensive rating stands at No. 2 on the season, No. 3 since the All-Star Break and No. 1 in the last month. Orlando needs to focus on its defensive efforts to avoid a win-or-go-home second Play-In game. Banchero is a piece of that. More energy spent defensively should come at the expense of his offensive production.

Onyeka Okongwu will not repeat his 30-point performance from a week ago vs. Orlando. He went 9-of-17 from the field and 4-of-7 from deep. His overall FG% was not an outlier, but going 57.1% from deep as a 32.4% 3-point shooter this season was rather absurd. Mostly, Okongwu will not take that many shots, not when his season average was 9.2 attempts per game, not when this game has a total nine points lower than that one did and not when his workload will be less than that 40-minute showing. Play-In games are played with elimination-game intensity. 11 of the 16 to open Play-In competition have gone Under their totals. Role players should not be expected to outperform their norms.

Okongwu had a monster 30-point performance in his last meeting with Orlando. That output is a bit of an anomaly for Orlando’s opponents. The Magic rank among the best defenses in the league and don’t give away many extra possessions or offensive boards. Orlando allows a league-low 9.2 offensive rebounds against as well as a league-low 11.9 second-chance points per game. In his two meetings with the Magic prior to that offensive eruption, Okongwu mustered just nine and 11 points, respectively. He shot a collective 6-for-7 from the charity stripe in those games and had just three total offensive rebounds. Okongwu’s early player projections for Tuesday all come in shorter than the 14.5-point total. 

While Memphis rested its starters on Sunday, Golden State lost in OT with its starters logging hefty minutes. On two days turnaround, that wear should cost the Warriors, especially since they have been in must-win mode for a full week now, playing four games in six days culminating with that loss on Sunday. That is true for everyone at this point in the season, but Memphis countered the fatigue on Sunday. Not to mention, fatigue is more of a worry for a team as old as GSW is. Oh, and as banged up as GSW is. Memphis needs to take advantage of its rest and health edges as early as possible. Finding a first-quarter moneyline at such plus-money is a bit of a surprise.

Bane had six or more boards in four of his final five games of the regular season and player projections for Tuesday’s Play-In clash call for another 6-plus rebound effort from Bane. There will be plenty of chances for rebounds, given the pace of play between these teams. In their four matchups in the regular season, the Grizzlies and Warriors posted a collective pace rating of 105.13 – an uptick from Memphis’s NBA leading tempo of 103.69. Both sides attempted more shots than their season averages in those head-to-encounters. Given the number of possessions and potential field goal attempts, there’s a natural increase in misses. Add in playoff-style intensity on defense and this game is ripe for rebounding opportunities. The stocky Bane will be able to muscle Golden State’s guards on the glass, given the Warriors role out Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski and Buddy Hield in the backcourt.  

Morant made three or more triples in four of those final five contests, including a 5-for-8 outing from distance against Golden State on April 1. Of course, much was made of Morant’s 3-point celebrations in this span, and I expect him to toss a few “grenades” in the Chase Center on Tuesday. Morant has upped his activity from downtown in recent months, with his 3-point attempts jumping from 4.9 to 6.5 shots from deep per outing over the past 25 games. That’s increased further, with Morant taking almost eight shots from beyond the arc in his last 15 contests, making an average of 2.3 3-pointers in those 15 games. Morant didn’t hesitate to let it fly from distance in his previous postseason appearances, averaging six attempts from long range in the playoffs and connecting on more than two of those triples.

Green averages 5.3 assists on the year and has been much more active moving the basketball since the Jimmy Butler trade. Going back to that blockbuster deal in February, Green is handing out 5.8 assists with 11.5 potential assists showing in his advanced stats. His passing prowess peaks in the postseason, with Green averaging at least six assists per playoff game over his last six postseasons. Memphis ranks 18^th in assist-to-FGM rate and not only watched Green record 12 assists in that last meeting but also gave up seven dimes to the mercurial forward back in November

Since the All-Star break, Curry has averaged 1.4 steals and has recorded two or more steals in four of his last eight games. That streak is punctuated by a five-steal performance against Memphis on April 1. In his three games against the Grizzlies, Curry has 10 total steals (5, 1, 4) against a Memphis offense that allowed 8.6 steals against on the season (20^th). Looking at the four meetings between the Grizzlies and Warriors this season, those encounters were played at a very speedy pace rating of higher than 105.0, which means plenty of possessions – and chances for steals. Memphis averaged 17.8 turnovers in those four games with Golden State and had the ball stolen a total of 44 times (10 from Curry) – 11 steals per game. Curry’s steals props have bounced between 0.5 and 1.5 steals with juice swinging drastically depending on the number. However, he has surpassed those steal totals six times in his last 10 games.

Herro went an ugly 2-of-7 from deep in a loss in Chicago a week ago. Herro’s results were not that shocking against a defense that gives up relatively few looks from deep, and the ones available are generally bad. The Bulls have ranked No. 14 in rate of opponents’ shots coming from deep in the last month, those shots then falling just 34.7% of the time, No. 7 in the NBA since March 12. Herro is a good shotmaker, but when his shots are regularly contested, obviously life is going to be more difficult. Then factor in this Play-In game having a total 8.5 points lower than the game a week ago and suddenly it becomes clear, open looks should be even scarcer.

Robinson went 0-of-4 from deep at Chicago last week, one of three times in his last six games where he fell short of this prop. Go back to before his late-March absence and Robinson has fallen short of this prop in 5 of his last 8 games and 7 of his last 12. Those rates may not encourage a bet juiced to -170, but that faith in Chicago’s defense warrants it. The Heat did not stress that defense a week ago, taking 35.9% of their shots from deep and making 36% of them, both significantly lower than Miami’s usuals presumably because the Bulls were encouraging only bad looks. A lower game total, the opposing perimeter defense and the likely fewer chances all justify this bet in spite of the juice.

Chicago stressed Miami’s defense last week. Both its rate of long-range attempts and percentage of makes tracked in line with Chicago’s quality 3-point shooting offense, and both outpaced Miami’s usual 3-point defense. Matas Buzelis contributed to those woes by making 3-of-5 shots from deep last week. The rookie has become a late-season starter in large part because of his shooting. Ignoring Chicago’s mailed-in season finale, Buzelis cleared this prop in five straight games to end the regular season and in 10 of his last 11 games.

Bam is averaging 21.2 points over his last 35 games and that span includes three meetings with the Bulls. In those contests, Adebayo posted point totals of 18, 22, and 23 while shooting a collective 49% from the floor in just over 36 minutes of work per outing. A healthy chunk of those buckets came inside, with Adebayo averaging 9.3 points in the paint across that trio of tangles with Chicago. The Bulls defense has a notable soft spot in the interior, allowing opponents to shoot 55.6% from inside the arc and ranked dead last in PITP allowed in the league (54.0 PITP per game). Wednesday’s player props give Adebayo a scoring total of 19.5 points – a bar he’s topped in five of his last six games to end the regular season. Projections for Wednesday’s game range from 19.6 to closer to 21 points from Adebayo. My number comes out to just shy of 21 points from Bam against the Bulls.

Some sportsbooks have already cut Klay’s points prop down from 14.5 to 13.5 O/U. He’s failed to score 15 points or more in eight of his last 10 games, with his minutes taking a knock in the home stretch of the schedule. Scanning his game-to-game output, you regularly see 20-point efforts followed by single-digit scoring nights. If Thompson comes out cold on offense or proves to be a liability on defense against the Kings, head coach Jason Kidd will not hesitate to take him out and replace him with the youthful legs of Max Christie, who has been eating up Thompson’s floor time and making the most of it. Projections sit short of 15 points for Thompson and with the market moving toward the Under, I’m grabbing a good price with the high side of this prop number.

The 6-foot-6 forward is active on the glass, averaging almost eight rebounds per game on the season but that output has been hindered by an ankle injury and the arrival of Anthony Davis on the glass. Washington has shown flashes of that work on the boards in recent outings, snatching 6.7 rebounds in his last six contests. Projections for Wednesday’s Play-In tilt call for six or more boards with some models north of seven rebounds. Given those forecasts, the Over 5.5 rebounds from Washington should be priced higher than -200 which takes a little sting out of laying -125. I’ll also be sprinkling a little bit on the milestone market of 7+ rebounds at +140.

Sabonis is the biggest cog in the Kings’ offensive machine, playing a major role in the dribble-handoff sets and high pick-and-roll that Sacramento loves to run. On the season, Sabonis boasted 9.5 potential assists per game. In the two matchups with the Mavs, that advanced stat jumped to 13.0 potential assists and he finished with outputs of seven and eight dimes in his two contests versus Dallas. The Mavericks aren’t a great defensive team, rated 24th since the All-Star break, and have a tough time defending handoff and pick-and-roll offenses. Dallas also allowed more than 27 assists per game on the year. Sabonis’ projections for Wednesday either sit on or above the 6.5-assist total and with the Over priced at +115, we’re getting good pop from this passing prop.

AD enjoys his matchups with Domantas Sabonis. In Davis’s last nine games against the Kings, he has cleared this prop in six, including each of three meetings this season. Those meetings came within two weeks in December, but it warrants noting that Davis came out ahead on the glass in those three games while wearing a Lakers jersey. Davis grabbed 19, 15 and 15 rebounds in those challenges, compared to Sabonis’s 12, 19 and 12. Davis has played only nine games with the Mavericks, but his overall rebounding rate has held rather consistently, grabbing fewer offensive boards and more defensive boards. His per 36 minutes rate remains at 12.3 compared to 12.5 in 42 games with the Lakers.