NFL Picks

With star QB Jayden Daniels banged up (and struggling) with a rib injury, the Washington Commanders could opt to lean on the ground game — that should mean good things for Brian Robinson against a Dallas Cowboys run defense that is 31st in yards against per game (151), 30th in run-stop win rate, and 24th in yards per carry. Dallas' offense is also relatively toothless with Cooper Rush at QB (and no rushing attack of its own), so Robinson should get plenty of touches to churn out the yards in a likely run-heavy game script.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield is a little murky with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White in a relative timeshare, but Irving is the superior runner, and head coach Todd Bowles has acknowledged that Irving could be in line for more looks if he continues his strong play. The Bucs are coming out of their bye to face the New York Giants, a putrid run defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the highest yards per carry (5.3), the most runs of 20+ yards (15), and the ninth-most missed tackles — and they've been even worse over the last four weeks, allowing 193.3 rushing yards per game and 11 runs of 15+ yards in that span.

The Lions are Super Bowl favorites for the first time ever but this is peak market price for them. Sure they've been blowing teams out of the water but they generally see a drop-off in their play away from home and this could be a letdown spot with the rival Bears on deck for Thanksgiving. The Colts have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and benching Anthony Richardson may have been the wake-up call he needed. Richardson returned to the starting lineup last week and had his best game of the year, throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown with another 32 yards and two scores on the ground. Detroit's defense has looked vulnerable at times and losing MLB Alex Anzalone to a broken forearm will hurt. Indy's offensive line is sixth in the league in run block win rate and if they can get Jonathan Taylor into the second level, he'll rip off big plays.

This is a buy-low spot for the Bears who let a win slip through their fingers last week versus the Packers. The Vikings are trending down and this will be their third-straight road game following underwhelming performances in Jacksonville and Tennessee. If the Vikes weren't able to separate from the Jags and Titans who might be the two worst teams in the NFL, I'm not confident they'll win by more than a FG against a divisional rival with a far more talented roster. Especially with the Bears going 9-2 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games at Soldier Field. Sam Darnold was being hyped as an MVP candidate in September but he's posted seven turnover worthy plays over the last three games despite facing weak defenses. He won't find it easy to move the ball against a Chicago stop unit that is second in defensive dropback EPA and seventh in takeaways.  

The Bucs have lost four in a row and I'm not comfortable laying six points on the road. Sure the Giants are going with Tommy DeVito at QB but he isn't exactly a downgrade from Daniel Jones. DeVito went 3-3 as New York's starter last year and he could provide a spark for the Giants against a Bucs defense that ranks just 29th in the league in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. The Bucs are getting gashed for 4.8 yards per rush while the Giants have piled up 143 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yps since the start of October. On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield has been productive but his ability to attack downfield will be hindered by sustained 15 mph winds at the Meadowlands. Pro Bowl LT Tristan Wirfs is also questionable with a knee injury and the biggest strength of the Giants is their defensive line.

The Pats have surrendered the fourth-highest EPA per dropback and rank 23rd in PFF coverage grade, while also allowing the 10th-highest yards per target to opposing wide receivers. I also value New England generating pressure on just 19.8% of dropbacks (10th least). Of course, Hill also went good for 69 receiving yards on six receptions and 10 targets with backup QB Tyler Huntley under center against New England in Week 5, and he has had consecutive monster showing against the Pats at home the past two years. Hill caught eight of 12 targets for 94 yards in Week 1 in 2022 and was even better with eight catches for 112 yards on 13 targets last season.

Nico Collins returned from injury with a modest performance on Monday night, putting up 54 yards on four catches (seven targets). However, one of those catches went for 33 yards. That isn't unusual for Collins, who's gone Over 25.5 yards on his longest reception in each of his six games, easily clearing it in a few of those contests. Going back to Week 1, Collins’ longest receptions have gone for 55, 28, 34, 26, 67, and 33 yards, clearing this 25.5 mark every single time.

Kansas City has scored first in three of its last five road games, while the Panthers have hit the 1H Over in 12 of their past 19 contests. Despite better defensive efforts in its last two outings, Carolina is still giving up 31 points per game this year. That suggests the scoreboard will be ticking along on Sunday. Mahomes threw four touchdown passes the last time these teams squared off, and I’m backing the visitors to rediscover some of their offensive juice.

Kansas City has scored first in three of its last five road games, while the Panthers have hit the 1H Over in 12 of their past 19 contests. Despite better defensive efforts in its last two outings, Carolina is still giving up 31 points per game this year. That suggests the scoreboard will be ticking along on Sunday. Mahomes threw four touchdown passes the last time these teams squared off, and I’m backing the visitors to rediscover some of their offensive juice.

Kansas City has scored first in three of its last five road games, while the Panthers have hit the 1H Over in 12 of their past 19 contests. Despite better defensive efforts in its last two outings, Carolina is still giving up 31 points per game this year. That suggests the scoreboard will be ticking along on Sunday. Mahomes threw four touchdown passes the last time these teams squared off, and I’m backing the visitors to rediscover some of their offensive juice.

The Indianapolis Colts deploy zone defense at the second-highest rate in the league (almost 80% of the time), but are in the bottom-third of the league in yards per coverage snap and 8.9 yards per coverage target while in zone — while St. Brown is one of the best WR in the league in picking apart zone coverages, sitting fourth among all receivers in yards, third in targets, and first in receptions (with an 85.5% catch rate).

The Vikings are the No. 1 defense in EPA per play this season, allowing the fourth-fewest points per game (17.0). Flores’ unit has completely shut down opposing running games - first in EPA per rush and rushing yards allowed (74.4) - which puts even more pressure on Williams. The problem with that is that Williams is the most sacked QB in the NFL (41) and is seventh in time to throw (3.0 seconds) because he’s held onto the ball for too long at times. That’s not going to work against a Minnesota defense that’s fourth in EPA per dropback and third in sacks (35). With Williams set to be under fire all game, the Vikings should cover this 3.5-point spread.

There’s been a lot of hit or miss in McLaurin’s game log, including a lone 10-yard reception on just two targets last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. Still, the Cowboys defense has been gashed through the air during its five-game losing streak, and McLaurin needs to be involved if the Commanders are going to remain in a playoff position. Plus, the sixth-year receiver is carrying the highest aDoT (15.0) and contested catch percentage (73.9%) of his career, and Dallas has surrendered the second-highest yards per target (10.4) and catch percentage (71.3%) to opposing wideouts during its five-game skid.

The price was as short as Week 3 and I assumed that after 10 carries and two rushing TDs last week, Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson would be around +130 for TD this week. I was wrong and therefore have to get on the A-Rich train again this week indoors vs. the Detroit Lions. The Colts offense looked good and the passing game was surprisingly strong last week. Indy moved the ball well and could do the same this week vs. an injured Detroit defense. Detroit lost starting linebacker Alex Anzalone and now has 10 defensive players on IR, including Aiden Hutchinson, who was the betting favorite for defensive player of the year before going down in Week 6. There should be plenty of negative game script for the Colts, which could help increase the passing volume and therefore the potential scrambling rate but I wouldn’t be surprised if this were a letdown spot for the Lions who have been playing almost too good of late.

Byes can sometimes create great buying spots for TDs (and props) as two weeks can seem like a lifetime. That's the case with the New York Giants and RB Tyrone Tracy. He's scored in three of his last five games and even though he lost a critical fumble in OT vs. the Panthers, he'll still be the focal point of an offense giving the keys to Tommy DeVito. I'm not downgrading the offense much and still expect Tracy to get his 18+ touches — a number he's hit in five of his last six games with him exiting early due to a concussion in the one low-volume game. The Giants don't want to pass the ball as Daniel Jones has put up some of the most laughable 1H stat lines over the last 30 days. This TD price was even money in Week 9 and although a lot of that had to do with the matchup vs. the Panthers, a move to +150 is too much for a 20-touch back who is the focus of an offense. With Jones no longer vulturing carries, there might be even more value in this play in Week 12.

Josh Downs has racked up 60+ receiving yards in seven of his last eight games. He's coming off an 84-yard performance versus a stingy Jets secondary and now faces a Lions defense that allows the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers (188.7). Downs has been consistent despite poor play at QB but the Colts passing game is trending in the right direction with Anthony Richardson returning last week to complete 66.7% of his passes for 272 yards. Colts head coach Shane Steichen was dialing up too many deep throws earlier in the season but his play-calling was much better last week with Richardson throwing more short and intermediate throws. That should lead to more targets for Downs who runs 72% of his snaps out of the slot. When you also consider that Indy could play with a negative game script due to the Lions being -7.5 faves, this is an easy bet to make.

Leading things off is my favorite TD of the week with Javonte Williams at +160. I, like many, was duped last week into thinking Audric Estime was going to be the lead back in this Denver Broncos backfield. He took 10 of the 13 RB opportunities in the first half last week vs. the Falcons, who the Broncos make look silly. Bo Nix is slinging the ball and the offense is moving it, having scored at least 28 points in each of their last four wins. Williams was the only back to get red-zone carries last week and took one to the house for a +185 TD. There hasn't been a huge adjustment on his TD price despite retaking the No.1 role and facing the Raiders indoors. The Raiders have dropped six straight games and have been outscored 188-109 across that stretch for an average score of 31-18. Denver will put up points again this week and Williams to get a TD at +135 or better is a solid TD play. 

Full credit to the Cards for the four-game winning streak. I’m just expecting quarterback Kyler Murray and the offense to have a few hiccups Sunday with the weather forecast calling for rain and cool temperatures at Lumen Field. Of course, I’m also not confident the Arizona defense can make enough stops. On the flip side, Seattle topped the San Francisco 49ers on the road Sunday and posted its highest PFF defense grade since Week 2. Don’t forget, the Seahawks allowed the second-lowest EPA per play and lowest success rate in the league through the first three weeks before the injuries mounted. The Seahawks defense is healthy again and hit the reset button during the Week 10 bye.

Metcalf has topped this number in six of his last seven games (the one exception being a game with a 22-yard catch) and he ranks in the Top 20 among perimeter receivers in deep target rate (27.4%), average depth of target (14.0 yards), and yards after catch per reception (4.3). He's also done well exploiting zone defenses and faces an Arizona Cardinals secondary that deploys zone at a near Top-10 rate — but sits dead last in defensive success rate while in zone and overall has the 10th-highest explosive pass play rate against.