MLB Picks

This is the same angle as Kyle Leahy, but there is some worry about Chase Burns' K potential. The leash just isn't there. Burns looks to be on a three-inning cap. He's thrown nine outs in back-to-back starts as he is at 151 innings, which is more than 100 over last season. Now, he's gone Over this number in those abbreviated starts, but with fewer than three innings on the block today, getting four of nine outs via the K is something I'm betting against at even money or better. The Cubs are the ninth-hardest team to strike out in the second half this year, and they saw him three starts ago when 41% of his outs came via the K. I have this a little better than a coin flip, but it will be a tough one to watch. These are the angles that September baseball presents to us.

Pete Alonso has been swinging a hot bat, and we are backing the Polar Bear to keep it rolling against Dustin May. Over his last 10 games, Alonso has posted a .605 SLG and .316 ISO, while his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers have produced a 22.2% barrel rate. May has struggled to limit quality contact from right-handed hitters, with his last 30 batters faced producing a near-20% barrel rate, along with a .365 xBA, .594 xSLG and .364 xwOBA. With Alonso going over this prop 66.67% of the time when elite on Batters-Box, we can back him here.

For the second day in a row, give me the Boston Red Sox, who are trading at 48% on Polymarket, but I price them closer to a 51% favorite against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox came through with a green checkmark on Thursday against the Texas Rangers, so we'll jump on the bandwagon for one more day. The Rays can put seven right-handed bats in the lineup, with their two most dangerous hitters, Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero, both swinging from that side. However, this matchup isn't as bad for Ranger Suárez as you might think. He isn't a soft-tossing southpaw, and his two-seam sinker should get in on the hands of Tampa Bay's right-handed hitters. The natural swing paths of Caminero and Díaz should also lead to ground balls against this pitch rather than elevated contact into the gaps.

Let's pick on Mason Barnett, who was just recalled from Triple-A but has already given up 12 homers in 40 big-league innings this year and has a worse ERA away from Sutter Health Park, which is tough to do. The reason for his demotion: He allowed 25 runs in 20-plus innings across his previous six games, with seven dingers given up. Jo Adell is the target and has two homers over his last three games. The former Halo has also seen Barnett twice this season during his time with the Angels. The hitting weather is not great across the board today, so I want guys with elite power, and that's Adell for this lineup. I'm willing to play this to 4.9x, with a fair probability of 21.3%.

Alec Bohm has taken it up a few notches against southpaws of late, especially with the same 1-2 combination Zac Thornton relies on so heavily.

He has managed a remarkably high .391 ISO, 17.4% barrel rate, and 97.6 mile per hour average exit velocity against fastballs and cutters over the last 25 games.

We're looking for runs in a matchup featuring two young pitchers with an ERA north of 5.00. I'd price this closer to 55% against the 50% we're actually getting from Polymarket, so we'll take this value and run with it. The No. 12 prospect for the Detroit Tigers, Andrew Sears, is a slow-throwing lefty up against a team with the eighth-highest wRC+ that loves crushing southpaws. The White Sox own a .741 OPS in this matchup and should take advantage of Sears' early major-league struggles. Chicago's No. 7 prospect Drew Sandlin gets the nod, and he's allowed three or more earned runs in four of his six starts this season. It's screaming Over to me, I'm playing this with confidence

Kazuma Okamoto is always the biggest threat to go yard in this lineup - he's got 33 homers this year and has hit three over his last six games. His 13% barrel rate is among the best in baseball, and if Kumar Rocker misses his location with a fastball, expect Okamoto to make it fly - he owns a .502 xSLG against that specific pitch.

Play up to 30%. Matt Olson’s recent contact quality is tough to ignore. He owns a 63.6% hard-hit rate and 13.6% barrel rate over the last week while continuing to elevate the ball. Lambert can give up fly balls, and Houston’s struggling bullpen only adds to Olson’s chances of going deep.

I'm playing this down to -110 today, and here's why. Kyle Leahy is getting throttled back as a starter and threw just 38 pitches in his last start, down from 55 in the start before that. He's at career highs in innings pitched, and there's no reason to push him late in September. He's not a K-per-inning pitcher, and getting three innings is a ceiling for him. The projections are calling for 1.31 Ks, but the pitch count is estimated at 24 pitches, which might be low but is certainly in the range of outcomes. Even at 35 pitches, this projects for 1.91 total Ks, which is a smash at plus-money. This should move quickly today and will likely be the last time we see a Leahy K prop. These are the beautiful angles and edges you can find in September's soft markets.

Josh Bell has quietly been one of the Minnesota Twins’ most consistent bats over the last few weeks, and he gets a favorable matchup tonight against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Bell owns a .500 SLG and .833 OPS, while posting a 56.5% hard-hit rate and 17.4% barrel rate. Rodriguez has struggled against left-handed hitters recently, allowing a 52.6% hard-hit rate, 10.5% barrel rate and .420 xBA over his last 30 batters faced. With Bell swinging a hot bat, this sets up as an excellent spot for the veteran slugger tonight.

Spencer Jones has an excellent opportunity to make an impact against left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez on Friday. Despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup, Jones has been absolutely nails against southpaws, batting .593 with a .963 SLG and 1.596 OPS over his last 30 at-bats against left-handed pitching. Rodriguez has limited hard contact from lefties lately, but the underlying numbers suggest those hitters are still squaring him up, with a .450 xBA, .683 xSLG and .269 ISO over his last 30 faced. Rodriguez is also allowing 3.38 HR/9 during that stretch. Jones' recent production and matchup make him an intriguing play at -120 or better.