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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 17, 2026.
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STL
@
CIN
Mon, Aug 17 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+153)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.. Because of Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
BAL
@
TB
Mon, Aug 17 • 6:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Coby Mayo u1.5 Total Bases (-245)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Coby Mayo in today's game.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Leody Taveras o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+160)
Projection 1.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Leody Taveras has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.
MIA
@
PHI
Mon, Aug 17 • 6:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Cristopher Sanchez o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125)
Aisha Quiñones
Senior Publishing Editor
Cristopher Sánchez has taken a massive leap forward this season with a pristine 15-4 record with a 2.54 ERA and 181 strikeouts across 25 starts. His combination of a high-70s wipeout changeup and a heavy sinker is generating soft ground-ball contact and elite swinging-strike rates. That has made it that much easier for him to own the divisional-rival Miami Marlins throughout his career (3-0, 1.06 ERA in 7 appearances). Miami’s current lineup continues to struggle with swing-and-miss against left-handed off-speed pitches, making this a prime spot for Sánchez to work deep while racking up whiffs.
Total RBIs
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total RBIs (+120)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the majors's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. This game is forecasted to have the 11th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Kyle Schwarber will hold the platoon advantage against Janson Junk in today's game.. Kyle Schwarber has big-time HR ability (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Janson Junk is a pitch-to-contact type (11th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.
DET
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PIT
Mon, Aug 17 • 7:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Esmerlyn Valdez o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Esmerlyn Valdez will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Esmerlyn Valdez will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs
Kevin McGonigle o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin McGonigle in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Kevin McGonigle is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Kevin McGonigle will hold the platoon advantage against Carmen Mlodzinski in today's game.. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.
AZ
@
BOS
Mon, Aug 17 • 7:10 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-161)
Aisha Quiñones
Senior Publishing Editor
The Boston Red Sox core thrive at home against left-handed starters, leveraging Fenway's unique dimensions (notably the Green Monster) to convert pull-side fly balls into extra bases. Against a younger southpaw like Mitch Bratt, Boston’s lineup is positioned to create early run support before the middle frames.
Total RBIs
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Corbin Carroll pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
SD
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NYM
Mon, Aug 17 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Brett Baty o1.5 Total Bases (+275)
Projection 1.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Brett Baty will have the handedness advantage over Walker Buehler in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Brett Baty will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Francisco Lindor will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
ATH
@
KC
Mon, Aug 17 • 7:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB when assessing his batting average ability.. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 83°.. Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Athletics.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Bobby Witt Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Hits
Kyle Isbel u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
ATL
@
MIN
Mon, Aug 17 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 2.21
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks as the 6th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
Total Bases
Drake Baldwin o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drake Baldwin in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Drake Baldwin is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Bailey Ober throws from, Drake Baldwin will have an advantage in today's game.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
CHW
@
CHC
Mon, Aug 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
CHW (+140)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
In baseball, I'm a fan of betting on streaks rather than against them, and the White Sox are carrying plenty of momentum into this series against the Cubs after sweeping the Tigers on the road to maintain their division lead. Shota Imanaga gets the start for the Cubs, and he relies heavily on locating a fastball at the top of the zone with high induced vertical break, causing hitters to whiff or pop the ball up. The White Sox have a strong counter, as they'll likely stack seven right-handed bats, several of whom feature flatter swing paths designed to stay on the same plane as Imanaga's fastball. For visual evidence, watch the fastball Miguel Vargas launched into the seats against Jacob Waguespack despite the pitch being well above the zone. The White Sox are trading at 41 cents on Polymarket, but I price them closer to 44 cents, which is why I'm hitting the button.
FirstFiveInnings Moneyline
CHC FirstFiveInnings (-175)
Aisha Quiñones
Senior Publishing Editor
Shota Imanaga continues to anchor the Chicago Cubs’ rotation with strong run suppression (3.80 ERA). His high-spin four-seamer paired with a late-fading splitter creates serious chase outside the zone—a dynamic that heavily favors him against a Chicago White Sox lineup prone to high strikeout rates against left-handed pitching.
LAD
@
COL
Mon, Aug 17 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (-130)
Projection 2.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 13th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. Freddie Freeman will have the handedness advantage over Tomoyuki Sugano in today's game.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-212)
Projection 3.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 13th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. Freddie Freeman will have the handedness advantage over Tomoyuki Sugano in today's game.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
Moneyline
ATL (-112)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
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NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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