MLB Picks

Honey, wake up, Parker Messick is on the mound again, and with a price as cheap as 43 cents, it's time to invest. Yes, the Guardians' rookie has done an incredible job this year, posting a 3.07 xERA and 4.8% barrel rate, putting him in the conversation for AL Rookie of the Year. It helps that he has a pretty strong history against the White Sox, which owns just a .212 xBA across 76 plate appearances against the young lefty. With the Guards gunning for a playoff spot, he's the guy you want on the mound. Cleveland has something special cooking, and I'm expecting that to continue with Anthony Kay going for Chicago - he's coughed up 13 earned runs across his last 14 innings pitched. I have this priced closer to 48%.

The Cardinals offense is circled in my notes, and the lefty bat of Alec Burleson is a buy today for a dinger at 22.2% or better. They get wind blowing out and 90-degree temperatures, which aren't common for mid-September. That's one check for the bats. The biggest edge for Burleson is the pitching matchup. The Cards get to beat up on Anthony Molina, who is starting now and should get hit hard for 75+ pitches today. He's allowed 12 runs over 12 innings in his three starts and has a 32% groundball rate, which means a lot of fly balls. Lefty bats are hitting .323 against Molina over his career, with a homer every 20.25 plate appearances.

Luis Garcia Jr. is in a strong spot to bounce back after falling short of 1.5 total bases last night. Over his last 10 games, Garcia has posted a .486 SLG and .550 xSLG while generating just a 32% ground-ball rate, a 57%+ hard-hit rate and a near-18% barrel rate. Meanwhile, Minnesota right-hander Zebby Matthews has struggled against left-handed hitters, with his last 30 opponents producing a 50% hard-hit rate, 13.6% barrel rate and 31.8% ground-ball rate. That group also owns a .304 xBA, .627 xSLG and .572 xwOBA. Back Garcia to bounce back this afternoon.

Riley Greene finds himself in a strong spot against Max Scherzer and the Toronto Blue Jays. While Scherzer has been pitching well as of late, his recent underlying numbers against left-handed hitters leave plenty to like. Over his last 30 lefties faced, Scherzer has allowed a .333 xBA, .562 xSLG and .369 xwOBA, while generating just a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 76.9% elevation rate. Greene has also been crushing the ball, posting a .925 SLG, .907 xSLG and .450 ISO over his last ten games. Batters-Box also shows Greene has covered this prop 54.55% across 77 elite ratings.

Kyle Tucker has quietly crushed the fastball-sweeper combination from lefties.

He’s hitting .381 with a .317 ISO and 16.3% barrel rate – high-end numbers you see from the elite of the elite.

When Andrew Abbott departs, Tucker will face a bullpen that has allowed home runs at the fifth highest rate this season.

Washington is in trouble tonight. In his last outing, rookie Jared Simpson allowed three ERs without recording an out, and now opens for a bullpen sporting a disgraceful 8.39 ERA and MLB’s worst FIP over the last two weeks. Zack Wheeler has surrendered just three total ERs across his last three starts, and faces a Nationals offense sitting at 28th in OPS against righties over the last two weeks. 

Play up to 25%. Francisco Lindor's power has picked up considerably, with three homers across his last six games and a .409 ISO during that stretch. He's also generating plenty of fly balls and hard contact, while Bassitt has allowed 1.53 HR/9 on the road. Lindor has an appealing profile at this number.

JR Ritchie has struggled to find the zone lately, making his walks market worth targeting against the Cubs. The right-hander owns a 15.63% walk rate over his last five starts and a 14% mark on the season. That number jumps to 23.3% against the last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced, and Chicago is expected to roll out five lefties tonight. The Cubs also own baseball’s highest walk rate at home this season and have maintained an 11% walk rate over their last 12 games, third-best in baseball. Three walks is a lot, but at +141, this is a fun sweat.

I'm heading to Coors to take Fernando Tatis to go yard, and there is room here with a fair probability of 29.4%. The projections are a little low on him, as he's priced as the third-most probable Padre to go deep, but he has already gone deep in each game of this series and might have his best matchup today. Mason Adams is the biggest pitcher fade of the day. In the second half of the season, he has the 20th-worst barrel rate and fourth-worst HR/FB rate among all MLB starters. He's given up five dingers in 18 innings, with only 4+ of those innings coming at Coors, where he has allowed two homers. He's also a reverse-splits pitcher and gets hit harder by right-handed bats. Only Pete Crow-Armstrong has more homers than Tatis in the second half, and Tatis is slugging at a Top-10 rate since the break.

I have this price at 44.4%. The Mariners are done for the season, and this road trip is getting ugly. Seattle could get swept by the Angels after dropping its series to the Athletics prior. The pitching is hitting a wall, with the fourth-worst xERA in September, and the pitching matchup might favor the home team, with Yusei Kikuchi looking sharp over his last three games, allowing three runs over 17 innings while striking out a batter per inning. George Kirby is coming off back-to-back 100-pitch games for the first time this season and is pitching to a 6.48 ERA over the last 30 days with an ugly 1.71 WHIP. The Mariners also have to head to Colorado after this series for a weekend set, making this one of the longer travel spots on the board and a potential getaway-letdown spot for the visitors.

I’m bullish on the Diamondbacks -1.5 run line to 42% because Marlins righty Ryan Gusto has serious statistical correction ahead. His 3.86 ERA through his past nine starts is miles below his 5.25 xERA and 4.56 xFIP, and Arizona ranks sixth in squared-up contact rate against righties in the second half. Additionally, a deeper dive into Diamondback righty Merrill Kelly highlights the veteran has stabilized down the stretch following a tough start to the year. Kelly sports a 3.64 xERA while holding opponents to an 8.7% blast-contact rate across his past four starts.