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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 25, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.73 |
-115 
|
o6.5 -102 
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
4.33 |
+100 
|
u6.5 -107
|
+1.5 -180 
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 8-0 in Petersons last 8 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Boston
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Michael Conforto o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+175)
o1.5+175
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.01 |
+150
|
o6.5 -114 
|
+1.5 -143
|
|
4.61 |
-167
|
u6.5 +100
|
-1.5 +140 
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 7-0 in Rays last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in Peraltas last 5 starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Rays are 8-1 in their last 9 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 9-0 in Sanchezs last 9 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Sanchezs last 7 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Sanchezs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Sanchezs last 7 home starts.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+281)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.33 |
-108 
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
4.26 |
-106
|
u8.0 -111
|
+1.5 -175
|
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 on grass.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Jobes last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
-108
|
o7.5 -125 
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.74 |
-105
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +150
|
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Mets last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1 in Mets last 7 vs. National League East.
Washington
- Under is 5-0 in Alvarezs last 5 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
o0.5+750
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
+108
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -213 
|
|
4.81 |
-118
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +180
|
Baltimore
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 overall.
- Over is 7-0 in Rogers' last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Rogers' last 4 starts as a road underdog.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Yankees last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 vs. American League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.55 |
+118
|
o7.5 -112
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.22 |
-129
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +164
|
Cincinnati
- Under is 4-0 in Lodolos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Reds last 4 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Lodolos last 4 starts overall.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+235)
o0.5+235
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.35 |
-115
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.34 |
+101
|
u8.5 -128
|
+1.5 -159
|
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 road games.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts overall.
Top Projection
Joe Mack o0.5 Total RBIs (+303)
o0.5+325
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.17 |
-132
|
o7.0 -115
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.04 |
+120
|
u7.5 -118
|
+1.5 -141
|
Cleveland
- Over is 6-0 in Williams' last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Guardians are 5-0 in Williams' last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Kansas City
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Camerons last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Camerons last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.78 |
+198
|
o8.0 -110
|
+2.0 -120
|
|
5.03 |
-225
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.0 +100
|
Colorado
- Under is 6-0 in Suganos last 6 interleague starts.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 road games.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Rockies last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total RBIs (+152)
o0.5+152
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.85 |
+160
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -124
|
|
4.46 |
-182
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +120
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in McGreevys last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in McGreevys last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in McGreevys last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Gassers last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Gassers last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Gassers last 4 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+181)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.18 |
-108
|
o7.0 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
3.56 |
-105
|
u7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -175
|
Texas
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in deGroms last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Ryans last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Jake Burger o0.5 Total RBIs (+219)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.70 |
-175
|
o8.5 -150
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
4.92 |
+155
|
u9.5 -128
|
+1.5 +100
|
Houston
- Under is 7-1 in Browns last 8 starts on grass.
- Under is 7-1 in Browns last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 8-2 in Astros last 10 games as a favorite.
Athletics
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 home games.
- are 6-0 in Lopezs last 6 starts vs. American League West.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+176
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
+116
|
o7.5 +100
|
+1.5 -182
|
|
4.15 |
-130
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +165
|
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Pfaadts last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Pfaadts last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
San Diego
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
o1.5+130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.63 |
+105
|
o6.5 -114
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.77 |
-120
|
u6.5 +105
|
-1.5 +184
|
LA Angels
- Over is 5-0 in Angels last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 overall.
- Under is 8-0 in Detmers' last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 on grass.
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Mariners last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Millers last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Millers last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+235)
o0.5+235
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.93 |
-295
|
o7.0 -132
|
-2.5 -106
|
|
2.50 |
+280
|
u7.5 -115
|
+2.5 -109
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Skubals last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Skubals last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Dodgers last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
San Francisco
- Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Osleivis Basabe o0.5 Total Hits (+107)
o0.5+110
BAL
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 25 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Pete Alonso o0.5 Total Home Runs (+373)
Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst
Total
o6.5 (-119)
Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst
CHC
@
BOS
Fri, Sep 25 • 5:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.01
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for run-scoring.. Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup.. Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (42.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
Total Home Runs
Michael Conforto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1200)
Projection 0.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Michael Conforto ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Michael Conforto is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. Hitting from the opposite that Brayan Bello throws from, Michael Conforto will have an advantage today.. Michael Conforto has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal figure of 93.7-mph.
TB
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Brandon Marsh o0.5 Total Home Runs (+637)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Brandon Marsh’s recent power indicators are much stronger than his surface numbers suggest. He owns a .308 ISO lately with a 71.4% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate over his last 14 plate appearances. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has also allowed enough home run damage to keep Marsh interesting at this price.
Total
o6.5 (-114)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
This is a very low total, and Philadelphia’s bullpen gives the Over a strong late-game path. The Phillies’ relievers own a 5.03 xERA across their last 22 1/3 innings, while Sanchez has also shown some recent vulnerability. Seven runs feels reachable even with Peralta dealing.
PIT
@
DET
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Spencer Horwitz o1.5 Total Bases (+265)
Projection 1.19
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In the majors, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Batting from the opposite that Jackson Jobe throws from, Spencer Horwitz will have the upper hand in today's game.. Among every team playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.. When it comes to plate discipline, Spencer Horwitz's talent is quite good, putting up a 1.38 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 92nd percentile.
Total RBIs
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. In the majors, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
NYM
@
WAS
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total Home Runs (+625)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I don't think I've ever seen CJ Abrams this long, and he is featured here at least once a week. Justin Hagenman is the projected starter, but the MLB app still shows TBD as of this afternoon. Either way, it doesn't look like a confident starter today against the Nationals and Abrams. It's likely going to be a righty regardless, which is great news for Abrams, as he has a .900 OPS against right-handers this year with 25 taters. Abrams isn't cooling off in the fall month, either, as he had two homers in his last series and another against the Cardinals. The wind is blowing in, but lefty bats should have a better chance to cut through it with the wind coming in from left field. This price still makes little sense when Abrams is usually around 5x, not 7.2x.
Total Bases
Keibert Ruiz o1.5 Total Bases (+235)
Projection 1.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Jonathan Pintaro... and even better, Pintaro has a large platoon split.. Keibert Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst among every team in action today.. Keibert Ruiz will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. Keibert Ruiz's launch angle in recent games (25.3° over the past 7 days) is quite a bit better than his 16.8° seasonal angle.
BAL
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Cody Bellinger o1.5 Total RBIs (+1000)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Cody Bellinger will hold the platoon advantage over Brandon Young in today's game.. Cody Bellinger pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
Total RBIs
Jazz Chisholm Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Young throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have an edge today.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.
CIN
@
TOR
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:07 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Springer loves lefties, and he mashes at home, owning a .813 OPS at the Rogers Centre this season. With his emotional exit incoming, expect him to lock in for the final series. Lodolo is the perfect guy to tee off on, coming into this one with a .486 xSLG against. Bombs away.
Moneyline
TOR (-135)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I'm comfortably fading Nick Lodolo in this spot, who's having one of the worst seasons of his five-year career. Lodolo owns the highest xERA (6.42), xSLG (.486), xBA (.293) since breaking into the league in 2022, and has coughed up three or more earned runs in five of his last six starts. Jose Soriano will be making his final start at home and limited this team to a seven-inning, two-hit, 10-strikeout shutout earlier this year while he was still with the Los Angeles Angels. The Toronto Blue Jays may be limping to the finish line, but should be able to give the crowd something to cheer about today
ATL
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Joe Mack o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. Joe Mack will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs
Matt Olson o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Matt Olson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Matt Olson will have an advantage today.. Matt Olson's launch angle this season (17.6°) is quite a bit better than his 14.6° figure last year.
CLE
@
KC
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Jo Adell hits for a ton of power against southpaws. He is sporting a .265 ISO and 11.8% barrel rate vs. lefties, and those numbers rise even further when isolating Noah Cameron’s pitch mix.
Adell’s ISO sits at .285 facing fastballs, changeups, and cutters, which are the three pitches Cameron throws at least 20% of the time against RHH.
His bat speed vs. that combination is also tops on the Guardians.
Total
u7.5 (-125)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I am taking the Under to 56%.
Scoring against Gavin Williams is challenging enough, and it won’t get much easier when he exits the game. The Kansas City Royals will have to contend with the league’s best bullpen by wOBA in September.
The Cleveland Guardians are in poor form against left-handed pitching, hitting .228 with a measly 3.8% barrel rate this month.
COL
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
CHW (-223)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Sean Burke gives Chicago a significant edge on the mound after posting a 0.82 ERA and 3.10 FIP across his last two appearances. Colorado counters with Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns a 5.10 FIP over his previous five starts and has continued to surrender plenty of hard contact. The White Sox are the stronger side.
Total RBIs
TJ Rumfield o0.5 Total RBIs (+299)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
T.J. Rumfield is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #6 venue in the majors for overall left-handed offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest fences in the majors — generally good for long-balls.. T.J. Rumfield will have the handedness advantage against Sean Burke in today's game.. In the last week, T.J. Rumfield's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5% up to 10%.
STL
@
MIL
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
MIL (-179)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Neither starter enters in dominant form, but Robert Gasser has been much better at keeping opposing hitters from doing serious damage. He's held opponents below a 30% hard-hit rate over his last two starts and has surrendered just 0.91 HR/9 at home this season. That gives Milwaukee the edge over Michael McGreevy and St. Louis.
Total RBIs
Jackson Chourio o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio as the 18th-best batter in MLB as it relates to his batting average skill.. Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The #8 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. American Family Field has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to more offense.
TEX
@
MIN
Fri, Sep 25 • 8:10 PM ET
Total
o7.0 (-120)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
The Rangers have gone Over in five of their last six games, and this pitching matchup could make it six of seven. Jacob deGrom has been getting lit up on the road all season where he has a 5.35 ERA. Joe Ryan has been awful since the All-Star break, allowing 11 homers with a 7.62 ERA in six appearances. With both bullpens also struggling, seven runs looks too low.
Total Bases
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 14th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Corey Seager is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. The #9 field in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humid conditions on the slate today (77%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Given Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Corey Seager will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.
HOU
@
ATH
Fri, Sep 25 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+271)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
It must be the end of the season because we're getting Yordan Alvarez at one of his best prices in weeks, in maybe the best home-run matchup on the entire slate. Alvarez should be priced at 3.2x, not 3.7x, today against Jacob Lopez in Sacramento. Lopez looks like he wants to call it a season after giving up 10 runs in his last start and 19 runs over his last three starts, spanning just 12.1 innings. Lopez has also allowed multiple homers in three of his last four games, and Alvarez has taken him deep once in five meetings. This is the best September hitting weather, with winds blowing out, a tired starter who looks ready to wrap it up, and the price is right. Full send here.
Total Home Runs
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total Home Runs (+710)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
This was a run-not-walk trade at a fair price of 6x, not 8.1x. Zack Gelof just launched two homers last night in Sacramento and has five dingers over his last 10 games. He has 22 on the season and gets the best hitting conditions on the board today at Sutter Health Park, with winds blowing out and decent temperatures. Hunter Brown is on the other side, which is a big reason why this is priced this long, but Gelof has a .936 OPS at home compared to .664 on the road and has seen Brown 14 times. The numbers aren't great, but there is some familiarity there. Sutter Health Park can get to even the best pitchers, which is why it finished as the best Over park of the season at better than 60%.
AZ
@
SD
Fri, Sep 25 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+400)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Corbin Carroll hasn’t hit for average, but he’s generated barrels at a remarkably high 20.2% clip against fastballs, splitters, and sliders over the last 25 games. That has led to an ISO of nearly .240.
It’s also worth noting Carroll’s had Casey Mize’s number, albeit over a limited sample. He is 4-6 with four hard hit balls and a triple against Mize.
Total
o7.5 (-105)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
A 7.5 total is a touch low, and I’m jumping on the Over to 54%.
Case Mize has allowed 3.3 runs per start with the San Diego Padres despite failing to complete five innings on average.
Brandon Pfaadt has not been sharp (4.63 ERA, 4.23 xERA) over the last month. That should be exposed by a Padres offense sitting Top-5 in wOBA and SLG against righties in September.
LAA
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 25 • 10:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Reid Detmers o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-139)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Detmers has been generating plenty of swings and misses lately, posting 9.60 K/9 over his last five appearances and clearing this number in three of his previous four. He also punched out eight Mariners just 10 days ago, and Seattle has averaged 8.71 strikeouts per game at home this season. Another strong strikeout performance is well within reach.
Total Bases
Josh Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+265)
Projection 1.18
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Josh Lowe's BABIP skill is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. T-Mobile Park has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Josh Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Bryce Miller in today's game.. Josh Lowe has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
LAD
@
SF
Fri, Sep 25 • 10:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Mookie Betts o1.5 Total Bases (+103)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Betts is seeing the ball exceptionally well, batting .458 over the last week with seven of his 11 hits going for extra bases. He's topped 1.5 total bases in five of his last seven games and now draws struggling rookie Yunior Marte along with a Giants bullpen carrying a 6.78 FIP over its last 22 innings. Betts should have plenty of opportunities to stay hot.
Total Home Runs
Max Muncy o0.5 Total Home Runs (+434)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
