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Los Angeles @ Boston props

Fenway Park

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Reese McGuire Total Hits Props • Boston

R. McGuire
catcher C • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
+140
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
+140
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage over Lance Lynn in today's matchup. Reese McGuire hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers. Reese McGuire will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Reese McGuire

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage over Lance Lynn in today's matchup. Reese McGuire hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers. Reese McGuire will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

David Peralta Total Hits Props • LA Dodgers

D. Peralta
left outfield LF • LA Dodgers
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Under
-190
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Under
-190
Projection Rating

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, David Peralta has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 31% of the time. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for David Peralta in today's game. David Peralta has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.9% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

David Peralta

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, David Peralta has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 31% of the time. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for David Peralta in today's game. David Peralta has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.9% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Mookie Betts Total Hits Props • LA Dodgers

M. Betts
right outfield RF • LA Dodgers
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-155
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-155
Projection Rating

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Kutter Crawford will hold the platoon advantage against Mookie Betts in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Mookie Betts generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Kutter Crawford. Mookie Betts will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.

Mookie Betts

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Kutter Crawford will hold the platoon advantage against Mookie Betts in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Mookie Betts generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Kutter Crawford. Mookie Betts will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.

Triston Casas Total Hits Props • Boston

T. Casas
third base 3B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-165
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-165
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage against Lance Lynn in today's matchup. Triston Casas pulls many of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers. Triston Casas will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Triston Casas

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage against Lance Lynn in today's matchup. Triston Casas pulls many of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers. Triston Casas will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

James Outman Total Hits Props • LA Dodgers

J. Outman
left outfield LF • LA Dodgers
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-145
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-145
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. James Outman will hold the platoon advantage over Kutter Crawford in today's game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so James Outman can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. James Outman pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.

James Outman

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. James Outman will hold the platoon advantage over Kutter Crawford in today's game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so James Outman can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. James Outman pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.

Masataka Yoshida Total Hits Props • Boston

M. Yoshida
left outfield LF • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-265
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-265
Projection Rating

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Masataka Yoshida's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, falling from 38.7% on the season to 33.3% over the past two weeks. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.320) suggests that Masataka Yoshida has had some very good luck this year with his .351 actual wOBA. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Masataka Yoshida ranks in just the 3rd percentile with a 3.6° launch angle, which is among the lowest angles in the league.

Masataka Yoshida

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Masataka Yoshida's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, falling from 38.7% on the season to 33.3% over the past two weeks. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.320) suggests that Masataka Yoshida has had some very good luck this year with his .351 actual wOBA. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Masataka Yoshida ranks in just the 3rd percentile with a 3.6° launch angle, which is among the lowest angles in the league.

Michael Busch Total Hits Props • LA Dodgers

M. Busch
second base 2B • LA Dodgers
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-190
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-190
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball. Michael Busch will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Busch has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team today.

Michael Busch

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball. Michael Busch will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Busch has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team today.

Adam Duvall Total Hits Props • Boston

A. Duvall
left outfield LF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-190
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-190
Projection Rating

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park ranks as the #2 ballpark in the league for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Adam Duvall pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Adam Duvall will hold that advantage in today's game.

Adam Duvall

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park ranks as the #2 ballpark in the league for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Adam Duvall pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Adam Duvall will hold that advantage in today's game.

Rafael Devers Total Hits Props • Boston

R. Devers
third base 3B • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-238
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-238
Projection Rating

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 42.2% to 37%. Rafael Devers has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .367 rate is inflated compared to his .356 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Rafael Devers has recorded a .278 BABIP this year, checking in at the 21st percentile.

Rafael Devers

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.3
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.3

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 42.2% to 37%. Rafael Devers has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .367 rate is inflated compared to his .356 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Rafael Devers has recorded a .278 BABIP this year, checking in at the 21st percentile.

Alex Verdugo Total Hits Props • Boston

A. Verdugo
right outfield RF • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-240
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-240
Projection Rating

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Alex Verdugo has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 7 days.

Alex Verdugo

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.3
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.3

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to less offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Alex Verdugo has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 7 days.

Jason Heyward Total Hits Props • LA Dodgers

J. Heyward
center outfield CF • LA Dodgers
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-195
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-195
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Jason Heyward will have the handedness advantage against Kutter Crawford today. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jason Heyward stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Jason Heyward pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team today.

Jason Heyward

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Jason Heyward will have the handedness advantage against Kutter Crawford today. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jason Heyward stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Jason Heyward pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team today.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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