MLB Picks

Corey Seager projects as the 7th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest RF fences among all parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.. Corey Seager will have the handedness advantage against Chris Bassitt today... and moreover, Bassitt has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jack Leiter to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.. The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order projects as the 5th-strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.. It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Baltimore Orioles offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest RF fences among all parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the best ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage against Chase Burns in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz's 17.4% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the best ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Chase Burns.. Bryan Reynolds has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The Washington Nationals are trading as +152 underdogs on the moneyline, and that number stands out—I make them closer to +113 in this spot. The matchup sets up well for Washington against Taijuan Walker, a pitch-to-contact arm facing a lineup loaded with left-handed and switch hitters. With seven hitters from that side, this is a profile that can give him real trouble. At the top, James Wood and CJ Abrams both match up well against his sinker-cutter mix and should be in position to generate quality contact. The environment also works against Walker. With the wind blowing out to center field at around 10 mph at Citizens Bank Park, conditions favor balls carrying—something that doesn’t pair well with a contact-heavy pitching approach. When you combine the matchup and the weather factors, this line feels too long, making Washington a strong value as an underdog.

The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).. It is expected that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Nick Mahrley) calling pitches in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 8th-best venue in the majors for strikeouts.. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate.

There's no question that Munetaka Murakami's power bat plays at the big-league level after hitting a home run in each of his three MLB games. He gets a great matchup against Miami's Chris Paddack on Monday. Paddack has ranked in the Bottom 10% of MLB pitchers in expected slugging in each of the last two seasons.

The Chicago White Sox might be headed for another dreadful season, but newcomer Munetaka Murakami is the sunshine on the Southside. The Japanese left-hander has gone deep in every game this year, and although there is some swing and miss potential, that works well for home run props as it's all or nothing with the rookie, with all three hits leaving the yard. He has also moved from the sixth spot in the lineup to the second spot, so five plate appearances are very possible if Chicago can turn things over. He's going from an indoor setting to another controlled environment in Miami, and only four other pitchers in baseball last year gave up more home runs than Miami's Chris Paddack. Fair price on the projection is +360.

Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano was prone to surrendering hard contact, resulting in 33 home runs allowed in 2025. Addison Barger did most of his damage against righties last year, with 20 of his 21 long balls coming in those matchups.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. nearly led the majors in xBA last season with a hard-hit rate in the 90th percentile. This bodes extremely well against Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano, who ranked near the bottom of MLB in strikeout and whiff rates while consistently living in the zone.

The A's "swing for the fences " approach will lead to a lot of home runs but will also mean a lot of strikeouts. Blue Jays starters punched them out 50 times over the weekend. Elder isn't a huge strikeout guy, but he improved in that regard at the end of 2025 and is a workhorse who will get plenty of chances to go Over this number.

Back the A's to get their first win of the season after being swept by the Blue Jays in Toronto. The Braves' lack of rotation depth gets exposed with right-hander Bryce Elder toeing the rubber amid multiple injuries. Elder posted a 5.30 ERA in 156 1/3 innings in 2025 with a middling 19.3% strikeout rate. He should be just what Nick Kurtz, Lawrence Butler, and the A's need to get going.

The wind is a major factor at Wrigley Field today, with Kevin Roth’s OVERcast projecting a 62% boost to home runs compared to a neutral park. Winds are blowing 17 mph out to left-center, creating one of the best power environments on the slate. The Chicago Cubs draw a great matchup against Ryan Johnson, who struggled badly vs. left-handed bats. After just 12 minor league games, he was rushed to the majors and allowed four HRs in 14+ innings, including three to lefties in just 25 plate appearances (.455 AVG). Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the best chance for the Cubs to take advantage of this. With the total already touching 10 in most markets, this shapes up as one of the top home run spots on Monday’s board.

Trout hit .462 with two homers and 1.573 OPS in the first series. He’s reached base twice in three plate appearances against Cabrera, who throws a fast (87th percentile on velocity last year) but hittable four-seamer. Trout has not missed a fastball yet this season and both of his home runs were off of that pitch. 

All the Milwaukee Brewers seem to do is win, but at +134, I’m backing the Tampa Bay Rays with Nick Martinez on the mound—I make this number closer to +109 on the moneyline. Martinez leans heavily on his sinker-changeup mix, and while Milwaukee will likely load up on left-handed bats like Christian Yelich and Brice Turang, that may not be as big of an advantage as it looks. Martinez was highly effective against lefties last season, holding them to a .208 average against his changeup and consistently disrupting their pull-side power. Tampa Bay also comes into this matchup with some offensive momentum after breaking out at the plate in their last game. That’s important against a left-hander like Kyle Harrison, especially with Yandy Díaz swinging a hot bat at the top of the order. 

Both offenses are off to a scorching start, combining for 52 runs while ranking in the top four in wRC+, which has translated to the clubs combining for a 5-1 Over record. There’s no reason to expect a slowdown here with a shaky pitching matchup, especially with Nick Martinez, who posted a 7.71 ERA across three outings vs Milwaukee last season. Add in a Rays bullpen that’s been getting lit up, and this sets up as another high-scoring game.

Jorge Polanco is only 1-for-10 to start the season, but he did flash his power during spring training, hitting two homers in 29 at-bats. And while Polanco has never been an elite slugger, he was consistent in Minnesota and Seattle over the past five years, homering at least 14 times each season and hitting 26 dingers in 2025. 

The top of the Mets lineup should find success against righty Kyle Leahy, with Juan Soto boasting a career .999 OPS against righthanded pitching. Add in the fact that Clay Holmes should give New York the pitching edge, and I like the Mets to cover the run line at a plus number tonight against the rebuilding Cardinals.

The righty struck out 61 over 55 1/3 innings last season. There hasn’t been a single year since he came up to the majors where he hasn’t struck out more than one hitter per inning. 

Abreu is scorching hot to begin the 2026 campaign. He’s hitting .462 with a pair of home runs already. He went deep in back-to-back games to close out Boston’s three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds. McCullers Jr. is HR-prone at times, and he gave up 10 last season in only 16 appearances.

Willy Adames has reached 30+ home runs in each of the last two seasons. In his age-30 season with a revamped batting stance, Adames can be projected to continue hitting for power and posting an ISO around .200.

A year ago, he had reverse splits with a 112 wRC+ and 20 HRs against righties, 95 wRC+ and 10 HRs against lefties.

Buehler struggles to keep left-handed hitters off base, but right-handed hitters dole out the damage, tagging him for an absurd 2.10 HR/9. 

After failing to score a run in either of the first two games of the season, the San Francisco Giants made a change at the top of the order by installing Jung Hoo Lee as the leadoff man on Saturday. 

He responded by scoring the team’s only run of the season, so it’s likely he stays in that spot. That’s a premium spot against Walker Buehler (5.39 xERA, 5.66 FIP), who struggled mightily against lefties (.300 BA, 1.79 WHIP). 

Lee stands a good chance of getting on base, and the heart of the order behind him has two left-handed bats (Luis Arraez, Rafael Devers) poised to knock Buehler around and drive Lee home.

Randy Arozarena is in a good spot if he can avoid the whiff (and he’s done a good job of that so far this season). Few players on the Seattle roster hit the ball harder than him consistently, and his early-season barrel rate reeks of someone “due” for a bomb. What’s particularly noteworthy about this matchup is how it lines up with the pitch mix of Weathers. He’s mostly a two-pitch thrower, and Arozarena was in the top three of Mariners players in hard-hit rate last season against the two pitches he’ll see. 

Luis Castillo's home numbers last season were legitimate: a 2.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 100+ innings, with his strikeout rate jumping to 25%. He's in a position to attack a New York Yankees lineup with plenty of swing and miss. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Chase Field profiles as the #2 ballpark in the majors for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 81°.. Riley Greene will hold the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka today.

When it comes to his home run talent, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. Chase Field profiles as the #2 park in baseball for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 81°.. Spencer Torkelson's 13.4% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) ranks in the 84th percentile since the start of last season.

Betts had a slow start to the season in 2025 and ended up with just 20 homers. But seven of those came against lefties in nearly 300 fewer at bats as compared to righties. He's already gone yard once this season. This looks like a great value in this game.

The Dodgers ranked third in OPS and fourth in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitching last season, going against a guy with seven career starts. While the Guardians finally have a little more pop with Chase DeLauter supporting Jose Ramirez.