MLB Picks

This is the same angle as Kyle Leahy, but there is some worry about Chase Burns' K potential. The leash just isn't there. Burns looks to be on a three-inning cap. He's thrown nine outs in back-to-back starts as he is at 151 innings, which is more than 100 over last season. Now, he's gone Over this number in those abbreviated starts, but with fewer than three innings on the block today, getting four of nine outs via the K is something I'm betting against at even money or better. The Cubs are the ninth-hardest team to strike out in the second half this year, and they saw him three starts ago when 41% of his outs came via the K. I have this a little better than a coin flip, but it will be a tough one to watch. These are the angles that September baseball presents to us.

For the second day in a row, give me the Boston Red Sox, who are trading at 48% on Polymarket, but I price them closer to a 51% favorite against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox came through with a green checkmark on Thursday against the Texas Rangers, so we'll jump on the bandwagon for one more day. The Rays can put seven right-handed bats in the lineup, with their two most dangerous hitters, Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero, both swinging from that side. However, this matchup isn't as bad for Ranger Suárez as you might think. He isn't a soft-tossing southpaw, and his two-seam sinker should get in on the hands of Tampa Bay's right-handed hitters. The natural swing paths of Caminero and Díaz should also lead to ground balls against this pitch rather than elevated contact into the gaps.

Let's pick on Mason Barnett, who was just recalled from Triple-A but has already given up 12 homers in 40 big-league innings this year and has a worse ERA away from Sutter Health Park, which is tough to do. The reason for his demotion: He allowed 25 runs in 20-plus innings across his previous six games, with seven dingers given up. Jo Adell is the target and has two homers over his last three games. The former Halo has also seen Barnett twice this season during his time with the Angels. The hitting weather is not great across the board today, so I want guys with elite power, and that's Adell for this lineup. I'm willing to play this to 4.9x, with a fair probability of 21.3%.

Alec Bohm has taken it up a few notches against southpaws of late, especially with the same 1-2 combination Zac Thornton relies on so heavily.

He has managed a remarkably high .391 ISO, 17.4% barrel rate, and 97.6 mile per hour average exit velocity against fastballs and cutters over the last 25 games.

We're looking for runs in a matchup featuring two young pitchers with an ERA north of 5.00. I'd price this closer to 55% against the 50% we're actually getting from Polymarket, so we'll take this value and run with it. The No. 12 prospect for the Detroit Tigers, Andrew Sears, is a slow-throwing lefty up against a team with the eighth-highest wRC+ that loves crushing southpaws. The White Sox own a .741 OPS in this matchup and should take advantage of Sears' early major-league struggles. Chicago's No. 7 prospect Drew Sandlin gets the nod, and he's allowed three or more earned runs in four of his six starts this season. It's screaming Over to me, I'm playing this with confidence

It's about time I included Brett Bateman in my Blue Jays best bet - the No. 20 prospect for the Toronto Blue Jays has done nothing but get on base and create offense since coming over in a trade with the Chicago Cubs for Kevin Gausman. His bat-to-ball skills have been on pure display, rocking just a 15% whiff rate and .333 average across 34 games. Bateman owns a 138 wRC+ and .828 OPS since making his MLB debut with Toronto, and is quickly becoming a matchup-proof bet for me. He comes into tonight with back-to-back multi-hit games under his belt, cashing this play in five of his last six contests. Against the struggling Kumar Rocker, whose 21% K rate leaves a lot to be desired, I expect to see him be a catalyst once more at the top of the lineup.

Play up to 30%. Matt Olson’s recent contact quality is tough to ignore. He owns a 63.6% hard-hit rate and 13.6% barrel rate over the last week while continuing to elevate the ball. Lambert can give up fly balls, and Houston’s struggling bullpen only adds to Olson’s chances of going deep.

I'm playing this down to -110 today, and here's why. Kyle Leahy is getting throttled back as a starter and threw just 38 pitches in his last start, down from 55 in the start before that. He's at career highs in innings pitched, and there's no reason to push him late in September. He's not a K-per-inning pitcher, and getting three innings is a ceiling for him. The projections are calling for 1.31 Ks, but the pitch count is estimated at 24 pitches, which might be low but is certainly in the range of outcomes. Even at 35 pitches, this projects for 1.91 total Ks, which is a smash at plus-money. This should move quickly today and will likely be the last time we see a Leahy K prop. These are the beautiful angles and edges you can find in September's soft markets.

Lars Nootbaar lives for the fastball. He has the best power numbers on the Diamondbacks, leading the team with a .507 SLG and 16.3% barrel rate against fastballs this season.

New York’s bullpen has allowed barrels at the third highest rate in September, so there are avenues to hit for power even after the fastball dependent Gerrit Cole departs.