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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 14, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
+131 
|
o6.0 -167 
|
+1.5 -178 
|
|
4.30 |
-148 
|
u7.0 -118 
|
-1.5 +160
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Newcombs last 4 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Newcombs last 4 starts.
- Under is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Williams' last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Williams' last 5 starts with 7 or more days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Guardians are 4-0 in Williams' last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Colson Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.93 |
-205 
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
3.44 |
+192
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 +114
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Skubals last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in Skubals last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Skubals last 4 starts on grass.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Reds last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 home starts.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lodolos last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+297)
o0.5+297
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.83 |
+115
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -178
|
|
4.32 |
-130 
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +170
|
Detroit
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 overall.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.67 |
+110
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -205
|
|
4.69 |
-118
|
u8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +170
|
Baltimore
- Over is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Orioles are 7-0 in Youngs last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Youngs last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Mets last 5 interleague home games.
- Mets are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
o0.5+195
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.62 |
-135
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.43 |
+125
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -136
|
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Warrens last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Kremers last 4 home starts.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Twins last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
o0.5+145
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.77 |
+118
|
o9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
5.21 |
-134
|
u9.5 -114
|
-1.5 +152
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Braves last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Braves are 4-0 in Lopezs last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Petersons last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Petersons last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Petersons last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+183
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.96 |
+120
|
o7.0 -167
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.22 |
-138
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +170
|
San Francisco
- Over is 3-0-2 in Roupps last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-0-2 in Giants last 8 games following a loss.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Roupps last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Mathews' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+145)
o1.5+145
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7.10 |
-180
|
o10.0 -175
|
-1.5 -115 
|
|
5.69 |
+158
|
u11.0 -105
|
+1.5 +100
|
San Diego
- Padres are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Padres are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.53 |
-110
|
o7.0 -175
|
+1.5 -250
|
|
3.95 |
+100
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +185
|
Seattle
- Over is 7-0 in Mariners last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Mariners last 9 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0 in Detmers' last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Angels last 10 vs. American League West.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Detmers' last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+120)
o1.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+115
|
o7.0 -195
|
+1.5 -184
|
|
5.16 |
-134
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Miami
- Marlins are 7-0 in Alcantaras last 7 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 5-0 in Alcantaras last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 4-0 in Burnes' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in Burnes' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+187)
o0.5+211
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.15 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Dodgers last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.53 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.76 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. American League Central.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
4.78 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Athletics
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.98 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
3.94 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.91 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
3.02 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Phillies last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 overall.
Washington
- Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.24 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 overall.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.18 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.55 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Baltimore
- Over is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games as an underdog.
- Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 interleague starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.46 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.77 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Atlanta
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 10-2 in Braves last 12 games as a road favorite.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Cubs last 10 home games.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Cubs last 10 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.36 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.77 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Twins are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.84 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.92 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 on grass.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Cardinals last 9 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
3.96 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.00 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
4.26 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Kansas City
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 on grass.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.47 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.84 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Diego
- Padres are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Padres are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.83 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Over is 7-0 in Mariners last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Mariners are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series.
LA Angels
- Under is 8-1-1 in Angels last 10 vs. American League West.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.49 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.92 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Marlins last 8 overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Marlins last 8 on grass.
Arizona
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Diamondbacks last 10 overall.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
CHW
@
CLE
Mon, Sep 14 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+560)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 20%. Adell’s power metrics aren’t at their peak, but the matchup still offers upside. He owns a .281 ISO against left-handed pitching and a 39.5% fly-ball rate at home. After going deep Sunday and posting a 41.2% recent hard-hit rate, Adell is worth a small home-run sprinkle.
Moneyline
CLE (-151)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 62%. Gavin Williams is in excellent form, sporting a 0.56 FIP across his last 13 innings and a 2.60 FIP over the past month. That sets up well against a struggling White Sox lineup, while Cleveland’s red-hot offense gets a favorable matchup against Sean Newcomb.
LAD
@
CIN
Mon, Sep 14 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Mookie Betts o0.5 Total Home Runs (+520)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 20%. Mookie Betts is finding his power stroke, homering twice in his last six games with a .389 ISO. He's also putting 56.3% of his contact in the air while posting an 18.8% barrel rate recently. That combination of lift and quality contact makes Betts an appealing home-run target tonight.
Total
o7.5 (-105)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 60%. This Over is more about Los Angeles doing the heavy lifting. Lodolo is struggling, while Cincinnati's bullpen has a brutal 6.17 FIP over the last week, allowing 2.17 HR/9, and walks have been an issue as well. The Reds may only need to chip in a couple of runs for 7.5 to clear.
DET
@
TOR
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:07 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Josh Smith o0.5 Total Home Runs (+950)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Play this to +800 for a quarter unit. Smith has five home runs in 45 at-bats with Toronto and draws Melton, who has allowed 11 of his 13 homers to left-handed hitters
Total Bases
Brett Bateman o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
BAL
@
NYM
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Pete Alonso o0.5 Total Home Runs (+331)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Mets starter Jonah Tong might have strikeout potential, but he gets hit hard, with 22 dingers allowed in 107 Triple-A innings. He's allowed eight runs over his two games since being recalled and is a good candidate today to hunt for homers with some big names on the other side. I haven't hit Pete Alonso much of late, as the price has been shy of three dollars, which is always a tough one to bite on, but he's sitting at 23.3% today and is in the buy zone for me. All I'm getting at that price is a guy with 14 homers in the second half (T-7) and the second-best xwOBA in baseball over that stretch. It's righty-on-righty, but Tong has worse splits against right-handed bats. I'm playing this to 25% or 4x.
Total
o7.5 (-123)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Nothing crazy here, just a projected 9% ROI on the Over, per THE BAT, which is predicting a total of 9.47 runs. Usually in these cases, the market doesn't account enough for one team, and there's value in that moneyline. But today, the missing value is equal on both sides, as both teams' totals show expected value to the Over. Jonah Tong has given up eight runs over his two games since being called up from Triple-A, where he had a mediocre 4.54 ERA but was missing bats. He's getting hit hard when he does, though, with 22 homers allowed in 107 minor-league innings.
On the other side, Brandon Young's 5.22 FIP in the second half indicates a pitcher whose sub-4.00 ERA isn't quite as it appears.
NYY
@
MIN
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Dean Kremer o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135)
Projection 5.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The New York Yankees have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Spencer Jones, Ryan McMahon, Aaron Judge).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 7th-best for hitting on the schedule today.. Dean Kremer has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.. Dean Kremer will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his metrics across the board.. In his previous outing, Dean Kremer turned in a great performance and notched 9 strikeouts.
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 2.13
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in the majors.. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. Out of every team in action today, the 14th-worst infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.. In the last 7 days, Aaron Judge's 40% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.9%.
ATL
@
CHC
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+112)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Atlanta Braves at 47% are an absolute buy for me, as I price them closer to a 53% favorite. That gives us a very strong edge at the current market price. Cubs starter David Peterson's path to getting right-handed hitters out is by tunneling his slider off his sinker. The problem for Peterson is that the Braves' right-handed bats, including Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley, are all very aggressive low-ball hitters against left-handed pitching. If Peterson's sinker doesn't have that sharp break, these Braves hitters are going to get their barrels underneath it and drive the ball with power.
Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 20th-best batter in baseball.. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. In MLB, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest.. Seiya Suzuki will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.. In the last week, Seiya Suzuki's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.5% up to 18.8%.
SF
@
STL
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Thomas Saggese o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.4
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 13th-worst infield defense is that of the San Francisco Giants.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Thomas Saggese will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+169)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Alec Burleson's batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage against Landen Roupp in today's game.
SD
@
COL
Mon, Sep 14 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Total Home Runs (+351)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
It's Tomoyuki Sugano day, and that means I'm backing homers in Colorado, despite having to pay a premium. His HR/9 over the last two seasons is by far the worst of any starter on today's slate. Only two other pitchers this year have a worse HR/9 among starters with at least 130 innings pitched. I'm putting Jackson Merrill and his red-hot form at a similar probability to Pete Alonso to go deep. He's one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last week, slugging 1.040 with three homers. He's a lefty Sugano doesn't want to see, as left-handed bats have taken him deep once every 16.9 plate appearances compared to 27.3 for right-handed hitters. It's the best HR pitcher on the board against the best bat over the last week at Coors Field.
Total Bases
Manny Machado o1.5 Total Bases (-134)
Projection 2.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best field in the league for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. This matchup is predicted to have the 15th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
SEA
@
LAA
Mon, Sep 14 • 9:38 PM ET
Total
u8.0 (-115)
Jason Wilson
Publishing Editor
Neither the Mariners nor the Angels have fared well against left-handed pitching this season, ranking 25th and tied for 16th in wRC+, respectively, in the split. Los Angeles is one of baseball's worst offenses overall, and Seattle has done most of its damage against right-handers, so solving Reid Detmers may prove difficult.
Total Bases
Jose Siri u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Angel Stadium as the worst park in the game for run-scoring.. Jose Siri pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 75th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jose Siri has recorded a .204 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 6th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Jose Siri has compiled a .092 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. As it relates to plate discipline, Jose Siri's ability is quite poor, sporting a 5.02 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 21st percentile.
MIA
@
AZ
Mon, Sep 14 • 9:40 PM ET
Moneyline
MIA (+114)
Jason Wilson
Publishing Editor
Corbin Burnes didn't allow a run in his first outing post-Tommy John, but I can't give him this much benefit of the doubt opposite Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins. Miami isn't a great offense, but it's not terrible, either, and the Diamondbacks right-hander struggled with command over his three innings of work. Take the plus money on the visitors with so much uncertainty surrounding the ace.
Total RBIs
Tim Tawa o0.5 Total RBIs (+242)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Chase Field grades out as the #3 field in MLB for overall righty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 6° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Tim Tawa will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. There has been a significant improvement in Tim Tawa's launch angle from last season's 7.5° to 11.7° this season.
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You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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