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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 13, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.41 |
+130 
|
o8.5 -113 
|
+1.5 -159 
|
|
5.11 |
-150 
|
u8.5 +100
|
-1.5 +146 
|
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rockies last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 overall.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1-2 in Tigers last 9 vs. National League West.
- Under is 10-1 in Tigers last 11 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
o1.5+145
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.92 |
+110 
|
o8.5 -130 
|
+1.5 -186
|
|
5.41 |
-125
|
u9.0 -114
|
-1.5 +165
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 8-1 in Painters last 9 starts on grass.
- Over is 7-1 in Painters last 8 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Painters last 9 starts overall.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 13-1-1 in Holmes' last 15 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in Holmes' last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+181)
o0.5+181
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.59 |
+160
|
o7.5 -109
|
+1.5 -136
|
|
5.49 |
-180
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +125
|
NY Mets
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Scotts last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Mets are 5-0 in Scotts last 5 starts as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.67 |
+105
|
o9.0 -110 
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
5.13 |
-118
|
u9.5 -130
|
-1.5 +165
|
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Irvins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 vs. American League West.
- Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
o0.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.02 |
+130
|
o7.0 -130
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.24 |
-148
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +162
|
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Rogers' last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-0 in Rogers' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Ceases last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Ceases last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Colton Cowser o0.5 Total RBIs (+372)
o0.5+372
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+120
|
o7.5 -118
|
+1.5 -178
|
|
4.43 |
-136
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +158
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Astros last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 5-0 in Wesneskis last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Peraltas last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
o1.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.53 |
-146
|
o8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.84 |
+130
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -135
|
LA Dodgers
- Over is 7-0 in Wrobleskis last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Wrobleskis last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Dodgers are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 8-0 in Marlins last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Top Projection
Emmet Sheehan o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
o5.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
+116
|
o7.5 -119
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.40 |
-130
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.09 |
+170
|
o8.0 -115
|
+3.5 -315
|
|
4.14 |
-195
|
u8.5 -120
|
-3.5 +245
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 5-0 in Burns' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 5-0 in Burns' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 9-1 in Reds last 10 vs. National League Central.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.53 |
-135
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.06 |
+118
|
u8.5 -124
|
+1.5 -145
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-2-1 in White Sox last 10 games as a road favorite.
- White Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in McGreevys last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in McGreevys last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0-1 in McGreevys last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Colson Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+229
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.68 |
+125
|
o6.0 -152
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.12 |
-140
|
u6.5 +100
|
-1.5 +165
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 during game 3 of a series.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in Boyds last 8 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Boyds last 9 home starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Ian Happ o0.5 Total RBIs (+263)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.90 |
+158
|
o7.5 +100
|
+1.5 -144
|
|
4.68 |
-180
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +134
|
Kansas City
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 on grass.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Camerons last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Tolles last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games following a win.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.48 |
-142
|
o9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
5.49 |
+125
|
u10.0 -114
|
+1.5 -130
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0-1 in Millers last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 road starts.
Athletics
- are 5-0 in Lopezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 6-0 in Lopezs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Lopezs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 9-1 in last 10 vs. American League West.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
o1.5+132
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.68 |
+120
|
o8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.85 |
-140
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +160
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Rangers last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rangers last 5 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Arizona
- Under is 3-0-2 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 7-0 in Rodriguezs last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Gabriel Moreno o0.5 Total RBIs (+199)
o0.5+199
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.07 |
-130
|
o6.5 -130
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
3.62 |
+110
|
u7.0 -110
|
+1.5 -164
|
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 overall.
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 vs. National League West.
- Over is 5-0 in Webbs last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
COL
@
DET
Sun, Sep 13 • 12:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Jackson Jobe o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+119)
Projection 4.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Colorado Rockies have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak, Connor Norby, Zac Veen).. Projected catcher Dillon Dingler profiles as a good pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jackson Jobe will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats across the board.. Jackson Jobe's fastball velocity has spiked 1.3 mph this season (97.1 mph) over where it was last season (95.8 mph).. Out of all starters, Jackson Jobe's fastball spin rate of 2420 rpm grades out in the 83rd percentile this year.
Total RBIs
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. On average, the fence height at Comerica Park is the lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Spencer Torkelson will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. By putting up a 30.400 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Spencer Torkelson grades out in the 89th percentile for power.
PHI
@
ATL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.99
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Truist Park projects as the #4 ballpark in the league for overall LHB offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park has the 3rd-shallowest CF fences in the majors.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to higher offensive output.
Total Bases
Bryson Stott o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Truist Park projects as the #4 ballpark in the league for overall LHB offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 87°.. Bryson Stott will have the handedness advantage against Grant Holmes today.
NYM
@
NYY
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.98
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in baseball.. Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #10 park in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (82%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The #10 park in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity of all games on the slate (82%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
LAA
@
WAS
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Moneyline
LAA (+103)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Grayson Rodriguez brings significant bat-missing upside against a depleted Washington lineup scuffling with an 80 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Washington's bullpen has completely imploded (7.97 ERA, 4.54 SIERA, 11.9% BB%), leaving Jake Irvin with zero margin for error in an even-money pick'em spot.
Total RBIs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, CJ Abrams ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 85°.. Hitting from the opposite that Grayson Rodriguez throws from, CJ Abrams will have an advantage in today's matchup.. CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
BAL
@
TOR
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:37 PM ET
Total RBIs
Charles McAdoo o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Charles McAdoo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The #5 field in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. The 8th-shallowest centerfield fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre.. Batting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Charles McAdoo will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Charles McAdoo will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+113)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 4th-best batter in the league when estimating his batting average talent.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The #5 field in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have an advantage in today's game.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
HOU
@
TB
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 89th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the best ballpark in the league for right-handed home runs.. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league.. Christian Walker's launch angle lately (26.2° over the past 7 days) is significantly higher than his 14.1° seasonal figure.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Christian Walker grades out in the 78th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 26.400.
Total Bases
Jeremy Pena o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the best ballpark in the league for right-handed home runs.. Jeremy Pena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 41.7% to 47.8%.
LAD
@
MIA
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his batting average skill, Otto Lopez is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Extreme flyball hitters like Otto Lopez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Emmet Sheehan.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Otto Lopez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Otto Lopez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 14.1% on the season to 20% in the past week's worth of games.
Total Hits
Mookie Betts u0.5 Total Hits (+195)
Projection 0.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #1 park in MLB for suppressing batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -5° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Batting from the same side that Eury Perez throws from, Mookie Betts will be in a tough position today.. Typically, hitters like Mookie Betts who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Eury Perez.
CIN
@
MIL
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Christian Yelich u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Total Bases
Garrett Mitchell u1.5 Total Bases (-275)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Garrett Mitchell is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.. Garrett Mitchell has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 17% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Garrett Mitchell has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 11.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 4.8% over the last two weeks.. Garrett Mitchell's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 96.1-mph seasonal average has decreased to 60.9-mph over the last 14 days.
CHW
@
STL
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Ivan Herrera o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Ivan Herrera hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total Home Runs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total Home Runs (+950)
Projection 0.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Nolan Gorman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Burke today.. Nolan Gorman will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.
PIT
@
CHC
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:20 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Matthew Boyd o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-115)
Projection 5.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Matthew Boyd has averaged 92.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 78th percentile.. The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Rafael Flores, Konnor Griffin, Oneil Cruz).. It is likely that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Ryan Wills) behind the plate in today's game.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 5th-best pitching conditions of the day.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 9.5-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for pitchers.
Total RBIs
Carson Kelly o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
Projection 0.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Wrigley Field has the 7th-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage today.. Carson Kelly has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 5.7% seasonal rate to 12.5% over the past 7 days.. Carson Kelly has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.5-mph average over the past week to his seasonal EV of 90.8-mph.
KC
@
BOS
Sun, Sep 13 • 3:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 89th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Salvador Perez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in MLB for run-scoring.. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity of all games on the slate today (93%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Payton Tolle throws from, Salvador Perez will have an edge in today's matchup.
Total Hits
Jahmai Jones u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense.. Among every team playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.. There has been a significant decline in Jahmai Jones's launch angle from last year's 19.7° to 16° this season.
SEA
@
ATH
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jonah Heim o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 95°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 23.3-mph in this game, the best of the day for batters.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.
Total Bases
Lawrence Butler o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Lawrence Butler is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 95°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 23.3-mph in this game, the best of the day for batters.
TEX
@
AZ
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Pavin Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+265)
Projection 1.2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #3 ballpark in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. The weather forecast predicts the 5th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Hitting from the opposite that Cal Quantrill throws from, Pavin Smith will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Pavin Smith will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Despite posting a .204 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pavin Smith has had some very poor luck given the .099 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .303.
Total Bases
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.. The #3 ballpark in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The weather forecast predicts the 5th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
SD
@
SF
Sun, Sep 13 • 7:20 PM ET
Total RBIs
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Rafael Devers projects as the 18th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Oracle Park has the shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.9-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage in today's game.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jake Cronenworth o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+110)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jake Cronenworth has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Oracle Park has the shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.9-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.. Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Webb in today's matchup.. Jake Cronenworth has been unlucky this year, compiling a .265 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .304 — a .039 gap.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
