Baltimore @ Boston Picks & Props

Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with lower temperatures, and the weather forecast for this matchup predicts the lowest temperature of all games on the slate at 55°. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for mound aces. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Ryan Mountcastle will be at a gigantic disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in this game. Ryan Mountcastle will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Ryan Mountcastle has been cold lately, posting a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) over the last two weeks.

Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with lower temperatures, and the weather forecast for this matchup predicts the lowest temperature of all games on the slate at 55°. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for mound aces. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gunnar Henderson in today's matchup. Gunnar Henderson has been cold in recent games, posting a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) in the last 14 days. Over the past two weeks, Gunnar Henderson's swing has not been well optimized for home runs, hitting a mere 0% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with lower temperatures, and the weather forecast for this matchup predicts the lowest temperature of all games on the slate at 55°. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for mound aces. As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Adley Rutschman will be at a big disadvantage against Brayan Bello and his large platoon split in today's game. Adley Rutschman will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. In the last 14 days, Adley Rutschman has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Cedric Mullins II will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cedric Mullins II has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Cedric Mullins II pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Cedric Mullins II's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 25% up to 25%. Cedric Mullins II has exhibited some good exit velocity statistics in recent games, averaging 98-mph on his flyballs in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Triston Casas is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Hitting from the same side that Corbin Burnes throws from, Triston Casas will not have the upper hand today. Triston Casas hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

Corbin Burnes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Reese McGuire today. Reese McGuire hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Reese McGuire will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Jordan Westburg pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Jordan Westburg has hit one of the hardest balls in Major League Baseball over the past 14 days — 107.9-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Corbin Burnes will have the handedness advantage over Masataka Yoshida today. Masataka Yoshida has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Ceddanne Rafaela has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Batting from the same side that Corbin Burnes throws from, Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. Batting from the same side that Corbin Burnes throws from, Rafael Devers will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. Rafael Devers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

Tony Kemp will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello in today's game... and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split. Tony Kemp may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP. Tony Kemp hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Batting from the same side that Corbin Burnes throws from, David Hamilton will have a disadvantage in today's game. David Hamilton has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. David Hamilton will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Hitting from the same side that Corbin Burnes throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will be at a disadvantage in today's game. Enmanuel Valdez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Enmanuel Valdez will hold that advantage today. A consistent launch angle is a proxy for good hitting, and Enmanuel Valdez has been very consistent with his lately, posting a 41.7° launch angle standard deviation over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the past two weeks, Tyler O'Neill's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.7% up to 16.7%.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Anthony Santander usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Over the past 14 days, Anthony Santander's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 20% up to 20%. Over the last two weeks, Anthony Santander's maximum exit velocity (a good proxy for recent form and raw power) has been 107.1-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the game.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average skill is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. Ryan O'Hearn will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Ryan O'Hearn has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. Ryan O'Hearn has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 15th-best batter in the game when assessing his BABIP skill. Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Ramon Urias has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Austin Hays has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.