Tampa Bay @ New York Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Yankee Stadium as the 6th-worst park in the league for righty base hits. Yankee Stadium's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with lower temperatures, and the weather forecast for this game calls for the 4th-lowest temperature on the schedule today at 52°. Clarke Schmidt will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz today. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Yandy Diaz in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Alex Verdugo will hold that advantage in today's game. In terms of plate discipline, Alex Verdugo's skill is quite strong, putting up a 1.91 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 76th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 6th-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Randy Arozarena's true offensive skill to be a .342, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .113 deviation between that figure and his actual .229 wOBA. In notching a .356 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Randy Arozarena is ranked in the 86th percentile for hitting ability.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Extreme groundball bats like Juan Soto tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tyler Alexander. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Juan Soto has put up a .384 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 96th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Oswaldo Cabrera will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 6th-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Isaac Paredes, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Isaac Paredes ranks in the 99th percentile with a 22.1° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in the league. Isaac Paredes has posted a .371 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, checking in at the 95th percentile.

Anthony Rizzo is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Anthony Rizzo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Anthony Rizzo will hold that advantage in today's game. Anthony Rizzo is in the 89th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (47.5% rate since the start of last season). The standard deviation of Anthony Rizzo's launch angle since the start of last season (24.9°) is in the 94th percentile. A low mark like this tends to lead to a higher rate of hits on balls in play.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Anthony Volpe ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Anthony Volpe is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Batting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Anthony Volpe will have the upper hand today. Anthony Volpe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. The standard deviation of Anthony Volpe's launch angle since the start of last season (25.2°) is in the 93rd percentile. A low mark like this tends to lead to a higher batting average on balls in play.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Gleyber Torres will have the handedness advantage over Tyler Alexander in today's matchup. Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Gleyber Torres will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Gleyber Torres has been unlucky this year, notching a .263 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .337 — a .074 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Harold Ramirez as the 13th-best batter in the league when estimating his batting average skill. Harold Ramirez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Harold Ramirez has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 6th-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. Harold Ramirez's quickness has increased this year. His 27.83 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.4 ft/sec now.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the 2nd-best batter in MLB. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Aaron Judge will have an advantage today. Aaron Judge will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Despite posting a .311 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Aaron Judge has had some very poor luck given the .095 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .406.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curtis Mead in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Curtis Mead has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 6th-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

Hitting from the opposite that Clarke Schmidt throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have the upper hand in today's game. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 6th-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 6th-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Jose Caballero ranks in the 93rd percentile with a 20.9° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in the game.

Richie Palacios is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Clarke Schmidt throws from, Richie Palacios will have an advantage today. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 6th-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. Richie Palacios has been hot lately, cruising to a .357 wOBA over the past 7 days. Richie Palacios has compiled a .271 batting average since the start of last season, grading out in the 85th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Giancarlo Stanton ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Giancarlo Stanton is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Giancarlo Stanton will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Giancarlo Stanton will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.214) implies that Giancarlo Stanton has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .200 actual batting average.

Jose Trevino will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Alexander in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jose Trevino will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jose Trevino's quickness has gotten better this season. His 24.42 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.05 ft/sec now. Jose Trevino has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .214 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .259 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Amed Rosario as the 15th-best batter in the majors when it comes to his batting average ability. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 6th-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. Posting a .284 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Amed Rosario finds himself in the 86th percentile. Ranking in the 96th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.14 ft/sec this year, Amed Rosario is remarkably athletic. Placing in the 80th percentile, Amed Rosario has put up a .271 batting average since the start of last season.

The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today. Jose Siri has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .277 figure is a good deal higher than his .247 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Jose Siri's 12.7% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) ranks in the 86th percentile since the start of last season. Jose Siri is in the 91st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (19.2% rate since the start of last season).