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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 27, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
-109 
|
o8.0 -118 
|
-1.5 +155 
|
|
4.14 |
-104 
|
u8.5 -117
|
+1.5 -176 
|
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Washington
- Under is 4-0 in Herzs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Herzs last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Herzs last 4 home starts.
- Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.88 |
+115
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -162
|
|
4.22 |
-130 
|
u7.5 -108
|
-1.5 +160
|
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Bazs last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Bazs last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 games as an underdog.
- Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Jazz Chisholm Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.50 |
-260
|
o7.5 -125 
|
-2.0 -122
|
|
2.97 |
+220 
|
u8.5 -139
|
+2.0 +100
|
LA Dodgers
- Under is 3-0-3 in Dodgers last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 vs. National League West.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as a favorite.
San Francisco
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 home games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 on grass.
Top Projection
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.43 |
-165
|
o9.5 +100
|
-1.5 -105 
|
|
5.50 |
+150
|
u9.5 -109
|
+1.5 -105
|
Houston
- Over is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 overall.
Athletics
- Over is 7-0 in last 7 games a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+211)
o0.5+211
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.87 |
+132
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -157
|
|
4.66 |
-145
|
u7.5 -129
|
-1.5 +154
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Martinezs last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Philadelphia
- Under is 3-0-1 in Walkers last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Phillies are 5-1 in Walkers last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+199)
o0.5+199
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.15 |
-124
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +142
|
|
4.42 |
+106
|
u7.5 -104
|
+1.5 -164
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.42 |
+150
|
o8.5 -113
|
+1.5 -127
|
|
4.48 |
-165
|
u8.5 +100
|
-1.5 +125
|
Cincinnati
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 road starts.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 during game 3 of a series.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+295)
o0.5+295
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.61 |
-126
|
o7.5 -118
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.16 |
+112
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in Jones' last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Jones' last 4 road starts.
- Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games following a win.
- Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+245)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.66 |
-145
|
o8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.83 |
+125
|
u8.5 -108
|
+1.5 -135
|
Cleveland
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central.
Kansas City
- Over is 7-0 in Royals last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Lynch IVs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.44 |
-126
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.88 |
+112
|
u8.0 -112
|
+1.5 -150
|
Arizona
- Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sorokas last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Michael Soroka o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-170)
o3.5-170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.29 |
+160
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -141
|
|
3.80 |
-180
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +125
|
LA Angels
- Over is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Angels last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+400)
o0.5+400
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
-108
|
o8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +152
|
|
4.43 |
-105
|
u9.0 -120
|
+1.5 -177
|
Atlanta
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games as a road underdog.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 vs. National League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Marlins last 10 home games.
Top Projection
Drake Baldwin o0.5 Total RBIs (+179)
o0.5+179
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
+180
|
o8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
4.50 |
-196
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +105
|
Colorado
- Rockies are 4-0 in Freelands last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Freelands last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 13-2-1 in Rockies last 16 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+210)
u0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.24 |
+210
|
o6.5 -132
|
+1.5 -108
|
|
4.32 |
-230
|
u7.5 -144
|
-1.5 +100
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as an underdog.
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-0-1 in Misiorowskis last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+400)
o0.5+400
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.28 |
-122
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +136
|
|
3.97 |
+106
|
u8.5 -113
|
+1.5 -148
|
Texas
- Over is 8-0 in Rangers last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 11-0 in Rangers last 11 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Rangers last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Rangers last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Danny Jansen o0.5 Total RBIs (+270)
o0.5+270
NYM
@
WAS
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mark Vientos o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Vientos in the 86th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Mark Vientos is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest fences among all stadiums — generally good for homers.. Mark Vientos will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against DJ Herz today.. Mark Vientos's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 14% to 19%.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest fences among all stadiums — generally good for homers.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Francisco Lindor will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against DJ Herz in today's game.. Francisco Lindor has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.6-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.3-mph figure.
BAL
@
NYY
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Christian Franklin o1.5 Total Bases (+300)
Projection 0.97
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Yankee Stadium grades out as the #10 field in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In Major League Baseball, Yankee Stadium has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Humid weather has a small but significant link with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-most humid conditions of the day at 91%.. Christian Franklin has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
Total Bases
Gunnar Henderson u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The 5th-deepest CF dimensions among all stadiums are found in Yankee Stadium.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for pitchers.. The New York Yankees infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team playing today.. Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gunnar Henderson today.. Gunnar Henderson has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph dropping to 84.4-mph in the last week.
LAD
@
SF
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Shohei Ohtani o0.5 Total RBIs (+138)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 14.3-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats.. Given Duncan Davitt's large platoon split, Shohei Ohtani will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Shohei Ohtani has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 16.7% seasonal rate to 66.7% in the past week's worth of games.
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+148)
Projection 1.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.. Teoscar Hernandez has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Teoscar Hernandez's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 38.8% to 46.2%.
HOU
@
ATH
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jeff McNeil o1.5 Total Bases (+172)
Projection 1.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jeff McNeil has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest fences in the league.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 84°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 19.6-mph in this game, the best of the day for batters.
Total Bases
Henry Bolte o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.96
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP ability, Henry Bolte is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Henry Bolte has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The #1 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest fences in the league.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 84°.
TB
@
PHI
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jonathan Aranda o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Considering Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, Jonathan Aranda will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.
Total Bases
Cedric Mullins o1.5 Total Bases (+270)
Projection 1.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. Dingers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Cedric Mullins will have the handedness advantage over Zack Wheeler in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Wheeler has a large platoon split.. Cedric Mullins has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.4-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88-mph average.
CIN
@
TOR
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:07 PM ET
Total Hits
Nathan Lukes u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Rogers Centre profiles as the #21 park in the game for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for hurlers.. Hitting from the same side that Brandon Williamson throws from, Nathan Lukes has a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Compared to his seasonal mark of 8°, Nathan Lukes has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.5°) over the past 14 days.. Nathan Lukes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 18.9% to 15.1%.
Total Hits
Charles McAdoo u0.5 Total Hits (+120)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Charles McAdoo is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #10 stadium in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for hurlers.
PIT
@
DET
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Riley Greene is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Jared Jones throws from, Riley Greene will have an advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Ryan O'Hearn o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 84th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. Comerica Park has the shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation among all parks, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.
CLE
@
KC
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+440)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Jo Adell has hammered left-handed pitching this year, hitting .314 with a .266 ISO and nearly 50% hard hit rate.
Daniel Lynch has a pitching outs line of 15.5 so he’s expected to get plenty of runway, opening the door for multiple Adell at-bats against the lefty.
When Lynch departs, Adell will face a very vulnerable bullpen. Royals relievers rank 29th in home runs per nine innings.
Total
u8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I can’t get to the 8.5 total, and would recommend the Under to 54%.
The Cleveland Guardians have played to the Under in 14 of Messick’s 15 road starts.
While this one could be a little shorter than usual, the Guardians still have an elite bullpen backing him up – and I doubt they get too casual with their usage given they have the entire week to rest.
AZ
@
SD
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Pavin Smith u1.5 Total Bases (-300)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.. This year, Pavin Smith has been pulled from the game early in 28% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. The #5 stadium in baseball for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Pavin Smith in today's game.
Strikeouts Thrown
Michael Soroka o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-165)
Projection 5.17
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Michael Soroka in the 80th percentile among all starting pitchers in MLB.. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which often leads to worse offense.. Michael Soroka will hold the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters in today's game.. In his previous GS, Michael Soroka was rolling and accumulated 10 strikeouts.. Michael Soroka's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (57.5% vs. 45% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
LAA
@
SEA
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Josh Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+300)
Projection 1.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Josh Lowe's BABIP talent is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Josh Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert in today's matchup.. Josh Lowe has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+182)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 6th-best hitter in the game.. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for homers.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.
ATL
@
MIA
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Matt Olson u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks LoanDepot Park as the 7th-worst park in the majors for left-handed batting average.. The 4th-deepest RF fences among all major league stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the Miami Marlins.. Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Matt Olson today.
Total RBIs
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 7th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 118° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. Ronald Acuna Jr. has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.3% seasonal rate to 22.6% over the last 14 days.. In the past 14 days, Ronald Acuna Jr.'s 32.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.9%.
COL
@
CHW
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
TJ Rumfield o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
T.J. Rumfield is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 7th-best field in the league for boosting offensive stats to lefties.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for dingers.. Among every team in action today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Chicago White Sox.. T.J. Rumfield has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, grading out in the 95th percentile with a 1.27 K/BB rate.
Total Hits
Tommy Pham u0.5 Total Hits (+169)
Projection 0.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Tommy Pham has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 11% of the time when starting against a lefty on the mound since the start of last season.. This year, there has been a decline in Tommy Pham's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.24 ft/sec last year to 26.12 ft/sec currently.. Tommy Pham's 7.3° launch angle (a reliable stat to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in the league: 6th percentile.
STL
@
MIL
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Brice Turang o0.5 Total RBIs (+227)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Brice Turang is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. The #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. Among all parks, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+222)
Projection 1.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. Among all parks, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.
TEX
@
MIN
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Jake Burger ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Burger is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Jake Burger has been unlucky this year, putting up a .315 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .011 discrepancy.. Using Statcast data, Jake Burger grades out in the 79th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 26.900.
Total RBIs
Royce Lewis o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
Projection 0.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #9 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Royce Lewis will have the handedness advantage against MacKenzie Gore today.. Royce Lewis will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.. Royce Lewis's launch angle this year (20.9°) is significantly better than his 17.5° angle last season.. Over the last week, Royce Lewis's 54.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 40.4%.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
