San Francisco @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park profiles as the #2 stadium in the league for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Reese McGuire will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Webb today. Reese McGuire will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Checking in at the 93rd percentile, Reese McGuire has posted a .363 BABIP since the start of last season.

Patrick Bailey is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 stadium in the league for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Patrick Bailey pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team playing today. Patrick Bailey ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (47% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for right-handed batting average. Ceddanne Rafaela has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .215 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .235 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for right-handed batting average. Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team playing today.

Fenway Park profiles as the #2 stadium in the league for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Given Cooper Criswell's huge platoon split, Mike Yastrzemski will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team playing today. Mike Yastrzemski's 19.7° launch angle (a reliable stat to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in baseball: 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for right-handed batting average. Nick Ahmed hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team playing today. Nick Ahmed grades out in the 79th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (46.3% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for right-handed batting average. Thairo Estrada pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team playing today. Thairo Estrada has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .285 figure is inflated compared to his .266 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Thairo Estrada ranks in the 80th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (46% rate since the start of last season).

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which often leads to less offense. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report projects the 2nd-lowest temperature of all games today at 53°. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for mound aces. This season, there has been a decline in Jarren Duran's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.5 ft/sec last year to 28.68 ft/sec currently. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.257) suggests that Jarren Duran has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his .284 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for right-handed batting average. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Rob Refsnyder will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Michael Conforto ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Michael Conforto is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 stadium in the league for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Because of Cooper Criswell's huge platoon split, Michael Conforto will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 stadium in the league for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Logan Webb throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand today. Wilyer Abreu has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Wilyer Abreu will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jorge Soler ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for right-handed batting average. Jorge Soler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team playing today. Jorge Soler has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .313 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .304 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 stadium in the league for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Logan Webb throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage in today's matchup. Masataka Yoshida has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Masataka Yoshida will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Fenway Park profiles as the #2 stadium in the league for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Enmanuel Valdez will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Webb today. Enmanuel Valdez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Enmanuel Valdez will hold that advantage today. Despite posting a .188 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Enmanuel Valdez has experienced some negative variance given the .095 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .283.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best batter in the game. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 stadium in the league for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Webb in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for right-handed batting average. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Bobby Dalbec will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Bobby Dalbec has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 28.08 ft/sec to 28.59 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.317) suggests that Bobby Dalbec has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .210 actual wOBA.

Connor Wong is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for right-handed batting average. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Connor Wong will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Connor Wong has been hot of late, cruising to a .400 wOBA in the past 7 days.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for right-handed batting average. Tyler O'Neill hits many of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

LaMonte Wade Jr. is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 stadium in the league for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Because of Cooper Criswell's huge platoon split, LaMonte Wade Jr. will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. LaMonte Wade Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team playing today.