San Francisco @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park projects as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nick Ahmed hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Bats such as Nick Ahmed with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kutter Crawford who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Nick Ahmed has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .225 BA is deflated compared to his .240 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Nick Ahmed grades out in the 79th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (46.3% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Daulton Jefferies will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler O'Neill today. Tyler O'Neill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Michael Conforto ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Michael Conforto is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball. Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Michael Conforto will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jorge Soler is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jorge Soler pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Soler has had some very good luck this year. His .313 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .299.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Fenway Park projects as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Matt Chapman has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .278 rate is deflated compared to his .315 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Dalbec in the 2nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Bobby Dalbec is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today. 22% of the time that Bobby Dalbec has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pulled from the game early. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to drop to the lowest level of the day at 49°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).

Fenway Park projects as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Thairo Estrada pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Thairo Estrada has had some very good luck this year. His .278 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .264. Thairo Estrada ranks in the 80th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (46% rate since the start of last season).

Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Mike Yastrzemski will hold the platoon advantage over Kutter Crawford in today's matchup. Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Mike Yastrzemski's 19.7° launch angle (a reliable standard to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the highest in Major League Baseball: 94th percentile.

LaMonte Wade Jr. is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, LaMonte Wade Jr. will have an advantage in today's matchup. LaMonte Wade Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. LaMonte Wade Jr.'s speed has gotten better this year. His 26.07 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.55 ft/sec now.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences among all stadiums. Daulton Jefferies will have the handedness advantage over Rob Refsnyder today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best batter in the league. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Rafael Devers will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Fenway Park projects as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Daulton Jefferies will hold the platoon advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Jarren Duran's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Jarren Duran will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Fenway Park projects as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Tom Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Patrick Bailey is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Patrick Bailey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Patrick Bailey grades out in the 86th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (47% rate since the start of last season).

Fenway Park projects as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences among all stadiums. Daulton Jefferies will hold the platoon advantage over Connor Wong in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Connor Wong has been hot lately, tallying a .400 wOBA over the past 7 days.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Wilyer Abreu has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Wilyer Abreu will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu has been hot in recent games, batting his way to a .390 wOBA in the past 7 days.

Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Enmanuel Valdez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Enmanuel Valdez will hold that advantage today. Enmanuel Valdez has been unlucky this year, putting up a .189 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .282 — a .093 difference. Enmanuel Valdez's 10.5% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) ranks in the 76th percentile since the start of last season.

Reese McGuire has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.