Milwaukee @ Chicago Picks & Props

Because of Joe Ross's large platoon split, Matt Mervis will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Matt Mervis will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.305) may lead us to conclude that Matt Mervis has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .219 actual wOBA. Since the start of last season, Matt Mervis's flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to assess power) ranks in the 93rd percentile at 96.7 mph. Matt Mervis ranks in the 94th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (22.4% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Dansby Swanson will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Since the start of last season, Dansby Swanson's flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 88th percentile at 95 mph. Dansby Swanson has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 17.9° figure is among the highest in baseball since the start of last season (94th percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Sal Frelick is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. Hitting from the opposite that Hayden Wesneski throws from, Sal Frelick will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Sal Frelick will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP. Sal Frelick has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rhys Hoskins in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Rhys Hoskins pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Jake Bauers is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Jake Bauers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hayden Wesneski in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Bauers has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Bauers has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .293 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .324. Since the start of last season, Jake Bauers's flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to study power) is in the 92nd percentile at 96.5 mph.

Mike Tauchman has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Mike Tauchman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Ross in today's game... and even better, Ross has a large platoon split. Mike Tauchman has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Mike Tauchman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Mike Tauchman has been hot recently, tallying a .414 wOBA over the last week.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willy Adames is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Willy Adames pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the past two weeks, Willy Adames has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .354. Willy Adames and his 21° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 98th percentile, among the highest in the league since the start of last season.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, William Contreras ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). William Contreras is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. William Contreras has been hot in recent games, tallying a .408 wOBA in the last week. Since the start of last season, William Contreras's flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to evaluate power) grades out in the 84th percentile at 94.8 mph. Sporting a .365 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, William Contreras has performed in the 94th percentile.

Over the last week, Blake Perkins has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .353.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the handedness advantage over Joe Ross today... and even better, Ross has a large platoon split. Pete Crow-Armstrong will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs), Pete Crow-Armstrong and his 33.3% rank in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

Miguel Amaya will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.321) suggests that Miguel Amaya has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .297 actual wOBA. Miguel Amaya's 18.6° launch angle (a reliable stat to assess a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in the majors: 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Christopher Morel is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. Christopher Morel will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.359) provides evidence that Christopher Morel has had bad variance on his side this year with his .288 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner as the 20th-best hitter in baseball when it comes to his batting average ability. Nico Hoerner is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. Nico Hoerner will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Nico Hoerner has recorded a .285 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Posting a 1.65 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Nico Hoerner has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 79th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Jackson Chourio is notably quick, checking in at the 87th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.53 ft/sec this year.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Ian Happ ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Ian Happ will get to bat from his good side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Joe Ross) in today's game. Ian Happ has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Ian Happ will hold that advantage in today's game.

Michael Busch is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Given Joe Ross's large platoon split, Michael Busch will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Michael Busch will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last 14 days, Michael Busch has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .351. Since the start of last season, Michael Busch's flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to measure power) ranks in the 80th percentile at 94.5 mph.

Oliver Dunn will have the handedness advantage against Hayden Wesneski today. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Oliver Dunn stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Ranking in the 94th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.03 ft/sec this year, Oliver Dunn is quite fast.

Batting from the opposite that Hayden Wesneski throws from, Brice Turang will have an advantage in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brice Turang stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Brice Turang has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

Tyler Black has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.