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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 29, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.87 |
+168 
|
o6.5 -119
|
+1.5 -135 
|
|
3.87 |
-177 
|
u7.0 -132
|
-1.5 +120 
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 Wild Card Round games.
- Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-2 in Phillies last 9 road games.
- Over is 7-2 in Phillies last 9 vs. National League East.
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 vs. National League East.
Top Projection
Jesus Luzardo o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-130)
o2.5-130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.60 |
+110 
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -175 
|
|
4.51 |
-122 
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +160
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 road games.
- White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in White Sox last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 games following a win.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 Wild Card Round games.
- Under is 8-1 in Astros last 9 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Astros last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
AJ Blubaugh o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-180)
o1.5-180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.91 |
+122
|
o6.0 -125
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
3.72 |
-136
|
u6.5 -115 
|
-1.5 +165
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a road underdog.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-0-1 in Yankees last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittlers last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Payton Tolle u6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110)
u6.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.73 |
+108 
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -195
|
|
4.42 |
-121
|
u7.5 -124
|
-1.5 +176
|
Chi. Cubs
- Under is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 Wild Card Round games.
- Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cubs last 6 games following a win.
- Over is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Kings last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Padres are 4-0 in Kings last 4 starts as a favorite.
PHI
@
ATL
Tue, Sep 29 • 2:00 PM ET
Total
o6.5 (-120)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Over 6.5 is recommended to -130 because Atlanta ranked 11th in wOBA and 10th in ISO while averaging 4.8 runs per game at home, so the Braves are set up for success against the patchwork-pitching approach from Philly in Game 1. Additionally, the Phillies finished fifth in wOBA and second in xwOBA with the second-lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers in the second half, so I anticipate Philadelphia also chipping in runs Tuesday afternoon.
Moneyline
ATL (-190)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
With the Philadelphia rotation taxed after battling to their final game to secure a postseason berth, I’d recommend the Atlanta moneyline to 68%. Additionally, Braves lefty Chris Sale has posted a 3.31 xERA and 3.29 xFIP through eight starts against the Phillies over the past three years. Philly is expected to counter with a bullpen game featuring bulk work from lefty Jesus Luzardo and righty Andrew Painter. Luzardo returned from a shoulder injury for a relief inning Sunday, while Painter sports a discouraging 4.60 xERA and 4.55 xFIP on the road. This gives the Braves a sizable starting-pitching edge in Game 1.
CHW
@
HOU
Tue, Sep 29 • 5:00 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (+103)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The White Sox and Astros are both swinging hot bats at the right time, making the market’s low-scoring expectation intriguing. Houston posted a 117 wRC+, .338 wOBA and .776 OPS during the final week of the regular season, while Chicago posted a 131 wRC+, .358 wOBA and .806 OPS. The White Sox’s pitching situation remains uncertain, and whoever takes the mound won’t exactly inspire confidence. Chicago’s bullpen also owns a 3.55 ERA and 4.59 xERA over its last 21 games while allowing a 42% hard-hit rate. With both offenses clicking, I’m expecting plenty of scoring in this matchup.
Moneyline
CHW (+107)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The White Sox are in a strong spot to jump out early against Astros opener AJ Blubaugh, who owns a 7.71 ERA across 11.2 innings this month. Over his last seven appearances, he’s allowing 2.70 HR/9 with a 70% elevation rate, while opposing hitters own a .303 xBA and .600 xSLG. Chicago’s offense has started to wake up, posting a 112 wRC+, .332 wOBA and .736 OPS in its recent stretch. Erick Fedde or Davis Martin will follow as the bulk reliever, with Fedde preferred after posting a 3.45 ERA over his last five road starts. I’m backing Chicago as a Game 1 underdog.
BOS
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Moneyline
NYY (-134)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
Give me the New York Yankees in Game 1 at 57% on the moneyline at Polymarket, as I price them closer to a 60% favorite against the Boston Red Sox. With the probability gap on the Yankees and Cam Schlittler on the mound, I'll gladly hit the button after being on the wrong end of his postseason masterclass against the Red Sox last year. Payton Tolle is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which plays differently at Yankee Stadium because of the short porch. While Tolle is a lefty and the Yankees' lineup will feature mostly left-handed bats, he wasn't particularly dominant against left-handed hitters. Lefties posted a .704 OPS against Tolle this season, compared to a .624 OPS for righties.
Total
u5.5 (+116)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
We have two aces on the mound that have dominated this specific matchup throughout the year, with both Schlittler and Tolle rocking a sub-1 ERA against their AL East rival. Yes, Schlittler is the likely Cy Young this season, but Tolle is no slouch - his .199 xBA, 36% chase rate, and 28% K rate this season is among the best in baseball. When you tie in their walk rate (both are issuing the free pass at just a 6% clip), each offense will have to earn it. No matter which angle you attack this one at, it smells like an Under.
CHC
@
SD
Tue, Sep 29 • 10:00 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Jackson Merrill leads the Padres in almost every major category in September, most notably barreling the ball at a 19.6% clip while generating hard contact 59.7% of the time.
His xSLG is above .600 against both lefties and righties so it’ll be difficult for Craig Counsell to find a matchup that really neutralizes his power.
The Cubs bullpen also sits 22nd in HR/FB in September.
Total
u7.5 (-129)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Under is appealing up to 57%.
Michael King’s ability to limit runs has led to plenty of low scoring games in San Diego. The Padres posted an 11-3-1 record to the Under in home starts, and were 6-0-1 when isolating opponents over .500.
Chicago's bullpen quietly ranks 13th in average allowed and second in hard hit rate in September.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
