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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 19, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.55 |
+113 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -186 
|
|
4.63 |
-125 
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +168 
|
Detroit
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Jobes last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Jobes last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 10-1 in Tigers last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in Burkes last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Burkes last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Burkes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Burkes last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Gleyber Torres o0.5 Total RBIs (+276)
o0.5+276
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.15 |
-110
|
o7.5 -110 
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
3.95 |
+100
|
u8.0 -129
|
+1.5 -175
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Gassers last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Rogers' last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Gunnar Henderson u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
u1.5-200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.71 |
+107
|
o7.5 -125 
|
+1.5 -195
|
|
4.53 |
-120
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +170
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0 in Painters last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Painters last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Painters last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Painters last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
NY Mets
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Mets are 6-0 in Scotts last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Scotts last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+184)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.57 |
+130
|
o7.5 -105 
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.01 |
-148
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +150 
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 8-0 in Red Sox last 8 games following a win.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Over is 5-0 in Peraltas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Rays are 4-0 in Peraltas last 4 starts.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.15 |
+170
|
o7.5 -114
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
4.63 |
-178
|
u8.0 -122
|
-1.5 +125
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-1 in last 4 on grass.
- are 5-1 in Lopezs last 6 starts as an underdog.
- are 5-1 in Lopezs last 6 starts on grass.
- are 8-2 in Lopezs last 10 starts during game 2 of a series.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Guardians last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Lawrence Butler o0.5 Total RBIs (+222)
o0.5+222
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.63 |
+100
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.29 |
-112
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Camerons last 6 interleague starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 8-1 in Royals last 9 games as an underdog.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-2 in Chandlers last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Chandlers last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+179)
o0.5+179
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.46 |
-134
|
o9.0 -115
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
4.75 |
+120
|
u9.5 -122
|
+1.5 -135
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 9-1-1 in Cubs last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1 in Boyds last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Boyds last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-1 in Boyds last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lodolos last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Total RBIs (+164)
o0.5+164
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
-109
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
3.77 |
-102
|
u7.5 +103
|
+1.5 -179
|
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 overall.
- Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
Texas
- Over is 8-0 in Rangers last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Quantrills last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+176)
o0.5+176
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.83 |
+115
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -188
|
|
5.06 |
-129
|
u8.5 +100
|
-1.5 +165
|
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Astros are 6-0 in Wesneskis last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+198)
o0.5+198
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.79 |
+101
|
o8.5 -118
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.39 |
-112
|
u9.0 -120
|
+1.5 -176
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Alvarezs last 7 starts as a road underdog.
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Cardinals last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in McGreevys last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in McGreevys last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Top Projection
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
o1.5+126
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.35 |
-143
|
o10.5 -120
|
-1.5 +102
|
|
5.34 |
+135
|
u11.0 -120
|
+1.5 -117
|
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-1 in Millers last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Millers last 6 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Millers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Colorado
- Under is 3-0-1 in Hughes' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 home games.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Rockies last 9 overall.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o0.5 Total RBIs (+242)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.75 |
-155
|
o7.0 -130
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
4.34 |
+138
|
u7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -122
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittlers last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittlers last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Yankees last 8 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Arizona
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 8-1 in Pfaadts last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Tim Tawa o0.5 Total RBIs (+315)
o0.5+315
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.14 |
+135
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -162
|
|
4.37 |
-150
|
u8.0 -136
|
-1.5 +140
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Perezs last 6 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Perezs last 4 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
San Diego
- Over is 9-0 in Padres last 9 games following a win.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+236)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.72 |
+325
|
o7.5 +105
|
+2.5 -120
|
|
5.24 |
-375
|
u7.5 -114
|
-2.5 +102
|
San Francisco
- Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 vs. National League West.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Giants last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-2 in Giants last 10 games following a loss.
LA Dodgers
- Under is 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts on grass.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
o1.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
-105
|
o7.0 -125
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
3.86 |
-108
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +200
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0 in Ryans last 6 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Ryans last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Twins last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
LA Angels
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Detmers' last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Detmers' last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+194)
o0.5+194
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.22 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.50 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 9-1 in Sanchezs last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Phillies are 6-1 in Sanchezs last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Sanchezs last 6 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Sanchezs last 6 starts as a favorite.
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League East.
- Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.23 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.98 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 8-1 in Royals last 9 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-1 in Royals last 7 road games.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Pirates are 14-2 in their last 16 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.20 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.79 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Rays last 6 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.21 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in last 4 on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 during game 3 of a series.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Guardians are 6-0 in Williams' last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.98 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.83 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cubs last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 9-1-1 in Cubs last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Lowders last 6 starts as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.70 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 road games.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.76 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.62 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-1 in Tigers last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 6-1 in Martins last 7 starts as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 10-1 in Martins last 11 starts as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 4 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.48 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.90 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Irvins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Mathews' last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Mathews' last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Mathews' last 4 starts overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.59 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.06 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 road games.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-2 in Rangers last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.17 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Mariners are 6-2 in their last 8 interleague games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 4-0-2 in Rockies last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Suganos last 5 interleague starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rockies last 4 during game 3 of a series.
DET
@
CHW
Sat, Sep 19 • 2:10 PM ET
Moneyline
DET (+116)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Chicago’s hitters are offering little resistance down the stretch, batting .211 with a brutal 28.7% strikeout rate over the last fourteen days. Meanwhile, Detroit’s relief corps has turned into an absolute buzzsaw, dialing up a microscopic 2.01 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 1.84 BB/9.
Jackson Jobe brings lethal stuff to the hill against an unannounced South Side arm, setting up Detroit as an exceptional plus-money look.
Total Bases
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #6 field in the game for overall left-handed offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for home runs.. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (83%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.
MIL
@
BAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Christian Encarnacion-Strand o0.5 Total RBIs (+179)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting on the slate.. Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold the platoon advantage against Robert Gasser in today's game... and moreover, Gasser has a large platoon split.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Hits
Pete Alonso u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Out of all the teams today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.. Pete Alonso's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 97.8-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 95-mph over the last 7 days.. Over the last week, Pete Alonso's 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 50.5%.
PHI
@
NYM
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:10 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Andrew Painter u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to -140. Andrew Painter has been in strong form, posting a 2.93 FIP over the last month while limiting opponents to a 33.7% hard-hit rate. The Mets enter with just an 81 wRC+ over the last week, and Painter has surrendered only one earned run across his last two road starts.
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+230)
Projection 1.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Francisco Alvarez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage today.. Francisco Alvarez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 103.1-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal figure of 96.4-mph.
BOS
@
TB
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Brayan Bello gives up a lot more power to lefties, allowing 1.46 HR/9 compared to 0.38 HR/9 when facing righties.
Jonathan Aranda is my preferred target to take advantage. He has enjoyed a lot of success against the sinker-changeup combination Bello is heavily reliant on.
Isolating those two pitches thrown by righties, Aranda’s ISO sits at .235 and his wOBA is approaching .400.
Total
o7.5 (-105)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Over is a little short here, making it a buy up to 55%.
The Boston Red Sox are 6-3 to the Over in Brayan Bello starts, and 4-1 when facing an offense that ranks in the top half of the league in run production.
Since joining the Tampa Bay Rays, Freddy Peralta has allowed 10 runs over two starts against top-10 teams in OBP vs. RHP.
ATH
@
CLE
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jonah Heim o0.5 Total RBIs (+290)
Projection 0.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Progressive Field ranks as the #2 field in the majors for left-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.
Total Bases
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Jo Adell is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field has the 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions in the majors.. Jo Adell will hold the platoon advantage against Jacob Lopez in today's matchup... and moreover, Lopez has a large platoon split.
KC
@
PIT
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Michael Massey u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Massey in the 21st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. 20% of the time that Michael Massey has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.. PNC Park has the 7th-largest outfield among all major league stadiums — generally bad for homers.. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Michael Massey today.. Over the last 14 days, Michael Massey's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as Major League Baseball's 18th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Oneil Cruz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Oneil Cruz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 106.5-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 98.2-mph.. With a 28.100 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Oneil Cruz is ranked in the 84th percentile for power.
CHC
@
CIN
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Total Home Runs (+222)
Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst
Total
o9.5 (+107)
Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst
TOR
@
TEX
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
George Springer has a knack for hitting homers when the Blue Jays need it most, and tonight qualifies. Still having a great second half of the season with a .823 OPS, Springer will need to lock into Quantrill's flat cutter - five of his 13 homers against have come off that pitch.
Outs Recorded
Jose Soriano o17.5 Outs Recorded (-135)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Jose Soriano will need to pitch deep into the ballgame after Dylan Cease threw just 2 2/3 innings last night. With a taxed bullpen behind him and the season likely one loss away from being over, he doesn't have much choice. The right-hander has gone over this number in three of his last four starts and has had some success against the Texas Rangers, limiting them to a .247 xBA and .313 xwOBA across 83 plate appearances. He'll have to be the man to keep the season afloat.
ATL
@
HOU
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:10 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+102)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Atlanta’s offensive output has evaporated over the last two weeks, slipping to 26th overall with an 84 wRC+ and a meager .291 OBP, while their arms are getting hurt by the long ball (1.74 HR/9).
Houston is generating far more raw power right now (.210 ISO, 105 wRC+). Hayden Wesneski should outduel Grant Holmes in what essentially profiles as a pick’em spot for the Astros.
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+127)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks as the 6th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.1°, Ronald Acuna Jr. has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 26.6° mark over the last 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ronald Acuna Jr.'s true offensive skill to be a .369, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .023 disparity between that figure and his actual .346 wOBA.
WAS
@
STL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the highest temperatures of all games today at 93°.. Dylan Crews hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Dylan Crews has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 9.4% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the last week.. Dylan Crews's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 13.1% to 19.3%.
Total Bases
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.97
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the highest temperatures of all games today at 93°.. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy today.
SEA
@
COL
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+177)
Projection 1.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best field in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Among all the teams playing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.. Ezequiel Tovar will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.. In the past 7 days, Ezequiel Tovar's 77.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.5%.
Total Bases
Kyle Karros o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 84th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best field in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Among all the teams playing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.. Kyle Karros will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
NYY
@
AZ
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total Home Runs (+539)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 20%. Cody Bellinger’s power has taken off lately, with three homers over his last six games and a .360 ISO. He’s also elevating the ball consistently, while Brandon Pfaadt has allowed plenty of hard contact and 1.72 HR/9 recently. At 15%, Bellinger offers worthwhile upside in Arizona.
Total Bases
Cody Bellinger o1.5 Total Bases (+112)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play down to +100. Cody Bellinger is swinging a scorching bat, hitting .440 over his last six games with three homers and a .360 ISO. Brandon Pfaadt has struggled recently, allowing nine earned runs over his last two starts with a 50% hard-hit rate. Bellinger is in a strong spot to keep producing.
MIA
@
SD
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+319)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 25%. Fernando Tatis Jr. is finally showing the power expected from him, going deep three times over the last week with a .414 ISO. His hard-hit and barrel numbers are climbing, and Eury Perez has struggled badly with home runs lately. Miami’s bullpen gives Tatis another favorable path to a long ball.
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Heriberto Hernandez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Heriberto Hernandez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.. This season, Heriberto Hernandez has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.5 mph compared to last year's 93.6 mph mark.
SF
@
LAD
Sat, Sep 19 • 9:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Tucker o0.5 Total Home Runs (+400)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Don’t look now but Kyle Tucker is crushing the baseball.
He is hitting .277 over his last 20 games with excellent metrics across the board, headlined by a .369 ISO and 13.6% barrel rate.
Tucker’s outputs have been excellent against pitchers of both handedness so it shouldn’t much matter who the San Francisco Giants have on the hill any given at bat.
Total
o7.5 (-101)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I trust the Los Angeles Dodgers to score in bulk, making the Over an appealing play up to 53%.
They’re not only getting on base consistently, but hitting for real power again. Just two teams have bested their 9.1% barrel rate during the month of September.
The conditions at Dodger Stadium are projected to provide more than a 20% boost to home runs, which should help convert hard contact into production.
MIN
@
LAA
Sat, Sep 19 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 8th-best batter in the majors.. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Mike Trout is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Minnesota (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).
Total Bases
Royce Lewis u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Royce Lewis is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.. Angel Stadium profiles as the #28 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In today's matchup, Royce Lewis is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.2% rate (99th percentile).. Royce Lewis will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.. Royce Lewis has compiled a .288 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 16th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's game.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
