MLB Picks

The Yankees have found a groove without star Aaron Judge (ribs) and won nine of their past 13 while averaging 5.5 runs per game and ranking ninth in wOBA and sixth in xwOBA. They’re also second in wOBA for the season against lefties, and Tigers southpaw Framber Valdez’s 4.47 xERA ranks in the 35th percentile. Additionally, New York righty Gerrit Cole has allowed two runs or fewer in four of five starts while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian 30.7% squared-up contact rate and 10.2% blast contact rate. So, with the Tigers ranking 22nd in xwOBA with the 10th-highest strikeout rate across the past 30 days, I’m confident Cole can hold the Detroit lineup in check enough for a road win at Comerica tonight.

Kyle Stowers profiles as a strong HRR target entering his 36th elite rating, with consistent historical success in similar spots. In his previous 35 elite ratings, he has cleared this prop 54% of the time, including a 61.9% hit rate in 21 home elite spots with a 28.57% HR rate. He has been locked in recently, posting 63.2% hard contact, a 26.3% barrel rate, and 63.2% elevation over his last 10 games, along with a .667 SLG, 1.109 OPS, and .471 wOBA. He draws Kumar Rocker, who has struggled badly vs lefties, making this a strong matchup spot overall.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Junior Caminero ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. Out of every team in action today, the 6th-worst outfield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.. Junior Caminero will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 2nd-best batter in MLB when assessing his BABIP talent.. James Wood is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 2nd-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 6th-best of the day for bats.. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage against Alan Rangel in today's game.

The Cubs are heating up at the dish with a fifth-ranked wOBA, ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.7 runs per game. Chicago lefty Shota Imanaga has also flipped the script with just a single run allowed and opposing hitters limited to a miniscule 19.3% squared-up contact rate and 3.5% blast contact rate across 10 2/3 innings over his past two starts. The Cubbies should also have their way with struggling New York Mets righty Kodai Senga. His 5.12 xERA ranks in the 17th percentile, and he has negative pitch values on three of his most frequent four offerings, after all.

Jake Bauers enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box, backed by strong underlying contact metrics against right-handed pitching. Over his last 30 plate appearances, he has produced 77% hard contact and a 15.4% barrel rate, and over his last 60, he still sits at 73% hard contact with a 13.3% barrel rate, along with a .596 slugging percentage and .428 wOBA. He draws Brady Singer, a matchup he profiles well against with 82% arsenal coverage. Singer owns a 5.61 xERA and 5.33 xFIP at home, allowing 42.2% hard contact and a 14.1% barrel rate, making this a strong spot for Bauers.

Shohei Ohtani enters today as the number one rated hitter on the slate, backed by elite road production and consistent dominance across multiple outcome metrics. In 133 elite road ratings, he owns a 75.19% hit rate, 33.83% multi-hit rate, 28.57% HR rate, and nearly 60% mark for 2+ total bases. He has been scorching recently with elite hard contact, barrel, and elevation rates, while also posting a .567 wOBA vs right-handed pitching over his last 90 at-bats. He draws Zebby Matthews, who has struggled heavily vs lefties, making this a clear premium matchup and strong spot for Ohtani.

Gavin Williams has held batters to a .220 average while striking them out at a very healthy 27.9% clip. Anthony Kay ranks in the 10th percentile in Pitcher Run Value and xBA. His struggles are starting to catch up to him, allowing 12 runs over 13 innings the past three starts. Back the Cleveland Guardians to -130.

Ezequiel Tovar is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of the day at 85°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Jake Bennett throws from, Ezequiel Tovar will have the upper hand in today's game.. Ezequiel Tovar will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Logan O'Hoppe in the 84th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 5th-strongest of the day for batters.. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Logan O'Hoppe will hold that advantage in today's game.

Grant Holmes has struggled badly lately, posting a 6.29 FIP over his last five starts while allowing 4.22 walks and 2.53 home runs per nine innings. Michael King has pitched much better at Petco Park, where he's held opponents to a .216 average and posted a 3.30 ERA.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.