MLB Picks

After hitting a solid 23 homers last season, Ian Happ has gotten off to a great start in 2026 with three dingers in seven games.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi was poor in his first game this season, giving up six hits, one homer, and six earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings. The right-hander allowed 24 homers in 23 starts last year.

Parker Messick shut out the Dodgers in his opening start and gets a Cubs offense that has scored fewer than three runs in three of their last five contests.

The Guardians’ sticks should get the best of Edward Cabrera and his history of command issues.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Rojas in the 16th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Miguel Rojas is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.. The #3 park in the league for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Miguel Rojas will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.276) suggests that Miguel Rojas has been lucky since the start of last season with his .313 actual wOBA.

CJ Abrams is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The weather forecast expects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Batting from the opposite that Roki Sasaki throws from, CJ Abrams will have the upper hand today.. CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 85th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and CJ Abrams will hold that advantage in today's game.

The New York Yankees have been riding their pitching early this season. Miami scored seven runs in Saturday’s loss, which was just one more than the Yankees had given up in their first seven games combined. Even after giving up a seven-spot to the Miami Marlins, the Yankees’ staff ERA is just 1.77.

Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge has picked up right where he left off with three home runs through his first seven games, including a two-run bomb against the Miami Marlins on Saturday.

The Marlins send Chris Paddack to the mound today after he was lit up for eight hits, two home runs, and eight earned runs over four innings last Monday.

Walker Buehler is a proven veteran arm and is coming off a tough start, but Ranger Suarez is a gas can that the Padres' lineup can hammer for a solid road win.

Expect a bounce-back outing for Buehler and a Padres plus-money victory. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Narvaez in the 21st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game.. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Walker Buehler will have the handedness advantage against Carlos Narvaez today.. Carlos Narvaez has had some very good luck with with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .317 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .281 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 82nd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to better offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 14.8-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for bats.. Extreme groundball batters like Coby Mayo tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Braxton Ashcraft.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 11th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-least humid conditions of all games on the slate at 38%.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kyle Harrison.. Salvador Perez's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 24.4 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.26 ft/sec now.

Gary Sanchez's BABIP ability is projected in the 3rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. When starting against a left-handed starter since the start of last season, Gary Sanchez has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 24% of the time.. Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-least humid conditions of all games on the slate at 38%.. Gary Sanchez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.2% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's deepest LF fences today.. Gary Sanchez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

Nick Fortes's BABIP ability is projected in the 1st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nick Fortes is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.. When starting against a northpaw since the start of last season, Nick Fortes has been pinch hit for 17% of the time.. The 9th-deepest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Target Field.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to drop to the 5th-lowest level of all games on the slate at 50°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).

Matt Wallner has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 12% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season.. The 9th-deepest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Target Field.. The league's 5th-tallest average fence height can be found at Target Field.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to drop to the 5th-lowest level of all games on the slate at 50°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Matt Wallner's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 26.77 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 23.14 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Daulton Varsho is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to drop to the 4th-lowest level on the slate today at 48°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Daulton Varsho in today's matchup.. In the last 7 days, Daulton Varsho has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #5 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for dingers.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 4th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Joc Pederson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 37% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Globe Life Field as the worst ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average.. The 6th-deepest CF fences among all stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. Joc Pederson has been cold in recent games, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 17th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Will Benson is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.. When starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season, Will Benson has been pulled from the game early 23% of the time.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Globe Life Field as the worst ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average.. Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

When it comes to his home run skill, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Coors Field profiles as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to more offense.. Brenton Doyle has big-time HR ability (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact type (17th percentile K%) — great news for Doyle.. Brenton Doyle will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Coors Field profiles as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to more offense.. Hunter Goodman has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact type (19th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.

2025 was a year to forget for Yordan Alvarez, who hit just six dingers in 48 games due to a fracture in his hand. The Houston Astros slugger is finally back to full health, and he’s already gone yard three times in nine games.

Alvarez has been smashing the baseball with six extra-base hits, a .423 batting average, and an .885 slugging percentage.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Christian Walker is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. Sutter Health Park ranks as the #4 ballpark in the league for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the 3rd-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions of all games today.

As it relates to his home run skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 4th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average.. Oracle Park has the shallowest RF dimensions among all parks.. The weather forecast calls for the 4th-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for right-handed batting average.. The weather forecast calls for the 4th-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Heliot Ramos has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #7 park in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 83°.

When it comes to his home run ability, Dominic Canzone ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #7 park in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 83°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 6th-strongest of the day for bats.

When estimating his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 20° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 20° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Mike Yastrzemski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi pitched to a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He got rocked in his season debut and now he faces a Cubs lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate and is due for positive regression. The Cubs are sending Shota Imanaga to the hill. He had a 3.73 ERA last year but his FIP was significantly worse at 4.86. He also has a tendency to get hit hard and struggled in his season debut. 

The Guardians are sending Slade Cecconi to the mound after he surrendered six runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. He had a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. The Cubs respond with southpaw Shota Imanaga who pitched to a 3.73 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP last year. Both teams are struggling at the dish but the Cubs were significantly more productive last year. They also lead the majors in hard-hit rate while the Guardians are 27th. Expect the Cubs big bats to break out against Cecconi.

Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report expects the coldest weather of all games today at 42°.. Kyle Leahy will have the handedness advantage against Gleyber Torres in today's matchup.. Gleyber Torres has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 10th-deepest RF fences today.. Gleyber Torres's speed has dropped off this year. His 26.2 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.54 ft/sec now.

When assessing his home run skill, Jordan Walker ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Comerica Park grades out as the #10 park in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Comerica Park has the 2nd-shortest fence height (on average) in MLB.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.2-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.