MLB Picks

Juan Soto finished with a career high 43 homers on the year in 2025, and now has two straight years of 40+ homers. Soto comes in off hitting two homers in the World Baseball Classic and has a great shot to continue that momentum into the regular season. 

With Paul Skenes and Freddy Peralta on the mound, we have a classic Opening Day battle between aces. Skenes can shut down any lineup, while Pittsburgh struggled to generate offense in 2025 and may not do much better in 2026. I'm taking the Under.

Yelich had a bounce-back campaign in ‘25, smacking 29 home runs. That was his highest total since 2019 when he went deep 44 times. While Yelich is 0-for-3 lifetime against Smith, 25 of his bombs last year were off right-handed pitchers. He also went yard 14 times at home

Misiorowski had 87 strikeouts in just 66 innings of work last season, and this is his first Opening Day start. The triple-digit stuff will be electric. The White Sox also ranked 15th in the MLB last year in Ks. 

A homer in Wrigley is likely a longshot today, so I’m looking at Chicago designated hitter Moises Ballesteros at long odds to leave the yard. He hit a pair of bombs in spring training, in addition to both his 2025 home runs in the majors coming against righties alongside his solid .182 ISO.

The Windy City is going to live up to its name Thursday, and runs are going to be at a premium with the wind howling in at Wrigley Field. Cubs southpaw Matthew Boyd faces a Washington offense that finished 28th in wOBA against lefties, and Chicago will draw Washington rookie Cade Cavalli following a dominant spring of 14 scoreless innings while allowing just six baserunners.

Alonso has hit at least 34 home runs in every full season of his career, including going for 38 bombs with an .871 OPS, his highest OPS since his rookie season. Joe Ryan gave up seven homers in his last four starts of 2025, and I like Alonso to get off to a fast start in his new home.

Trevor Rogers takes the mound after a great 2025 campaign, while the Orioles are looking to rebound from a disappointing year with a lineup that should be far more productive this season. I'm taking Baltimore to get an Opening Day win at home.

Projected catcher Yainer Diaz projects as a weak pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 32° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.

When assessing his home run talent, Jorge Soler ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jorge Soler is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 32° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team today.

I’ll double down on Greene for the HR prop, too. He crushed 36 dingers last season, with 32 of those coming off righties. That’ll put Pivetta under pressure here, and the Detroit slugger hit more homers on the road than at home in 2025. Petco Park isn’t the easiest place to nail the long ball, but Greene’s power overrides that.

After the Tigers’ late-season collapse last year, it’s easy to forget their scorching 29-15 start. I see Detroit flying out of the traps again here – and Skubal, coming off a 2.21 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 2025, should love the pitcher-friendly conditions at Petco Park.

The visitors are 4-1 SU in their past five season openers, and their two-time Cy Young winner has shown that his stuff travels (2.30 ERA on the road last season). While the Padres had a strong home record last year, changes in the clubhouse, including new manager Craig Stammen, may take time to pay off.

Both starters struggled in Spring Training, with Garrett Crochet posting a 7.36 ERA and Andrew Abbott pitching to a 11.72 ERA. Normally I don't much put much stock in how veterans throw in the preseason but Abbott also fell off toward the end of last year, logging a 4.21 ERA with a .264 OBA in his final 10 starts. I have more faith in Crochet who was the AL Cy Young runner up last year after being named an All Star the previous season. I also rate Boston's lineup slightly better despite losing Alex Bregman. Top-to-bottom the Red Sox have fewer holes than the Reds who have unproven hitters outside of Eugenio Suarez and Elly De La Cruz. 

Roman Anthony is viewed as a future star and seemed on the verge of a breakout last year before an oblique injury ended his season. Anthony's hard-hit rates and exit velocities suggest he can be an elite power hitter.  He also boasts strong reverse platoon splits. which will help him against Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott today. Anthony impressed at the World Baseball Classic and getting his home run prop at +390 at a hitter friendly park could look like a steal in a few months.

Garcia spent the offseason working with the Philadelphia coaching staff, and he hit a pair of homers with a solid .388 wOBA and .858 OPS during spring training. Even with his production dropping the past two years, Garcia hit a respectable 44 homers after launching 97 from 2021-2023.

Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez is third in ERA and fourth in xFIP among qualified starters over the past two seasons, and the Rangers enter ranked 24th in wOBA and 20th in ISO against lefties during the same stretch. I’m anticipating Sanchez picking up where he left off and holding the Rangers in check today, while the Philly offense does enough damage to pick up a convincing win.

Caminero is coming off a breakout campaign where he swatted a massive 45 home runs with 110 RBIs. He opens 2026 with a great matchup against Matthew Liberatore. The Cardinals' lefty gives up a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 14th percentile in average exit velocity.

Diaz has belted 61 home runs across the last three seasons. He’s also clubbed 41 career bombs off left-handers and 59 jacks against righties during his nine-year career.

Zac Gallen gets the ball, and Freeman is 7-for-27 lifetime against him with a pair of long balls. Sixteen of Freddie Freeman's homers in 2025 were off right-handers, and Gallen gave up 31 bombs last year —12 of them to left-handed batters. 

Yamamoto dominated this D-backs lineup last season. Current Arizona players have combined for a 32.1% K-rate against Yamamoto, with strikeout totals of 4, 9, 10, and 7 in four games.

Cal Raleigh and the Seattle Mariners will face Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee tonight. Bibee is HR prone, giving up 27 last year. Look for Raleigh to make some noise and leave the yard.